Reply-To: "Udo von Massenbach" From: "Udo von Massenbach" Subject: Massenbach-Letter: NEWS 18/02/11 Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:12:33 +0100 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="multipart/alternative"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_04F1_01CBCE7A.76194290" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal Importance: Normal X-Unsent: 1 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V15.4.3502.922 Dies ist eine mehrteilige Nachricht im MIME-Format. ------=_NextPart_000_04F1_01CBCE7A.76194290 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_04F2_01CBCE7A.76194290" ------=_NextPart_001_04F2_01CBCE7A.76194290 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Guten Morgen. see our letter again on: http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html Haaretz: Egypt unrest could improve Israel ties = =20 Obama careful in criticism of Iranian crackdown on protests Water shortages to force Mideast cooperation Dissecting Japan's New Defense Guidelines=20 NZZ: Fatale Vorliebe f=C3=BCr Milit=C3=A4rregime Massenbach Die Presse(Wien) Das = Demokratie-Experiment im Nahen Osten Publicist In =C3=84gypten entscheidet sich, ob auch in der arabischen Welt ein = dauerhaftes Leben in Freiheit m=C3=B6glich ist. Europa sollte diesen = Prozess mit aller Macht unterst=C3=BCtzen =E2=80=93 auch zu seinem = eigenen Nutzen. Vor ein paar Wochen h=C3=A4tte das niemand f=C3=BCr m=C3=B6glich = gehalten. 2011 wird das Jahr des gro=C3=9Fen Umbruchs im Nahen Osten. Am = 14.J=C3=A4nner jagten die Tunesier ihren Diktator Ben Ali aus dem Amt. = Nicht einmal einen Monat sp=C3=A4ter st=C3=BCrzte nun der = =C3=A4gyptische Langzeitherrscher Hosni Mubarak. Ein Ende der = Umw=C3=A4lzungen ist nicht abzusehen. Von Rabat bis Amman wackeln die = Throne, von Tripolis bis Sanaa zittern die Despoten. Der Aufstand der = arabischen B=C3=BCrger breitet sich aus wie das sprichw=C3=B6rtliche = Lauffeuer. Eine Revolution inspiriert die andere. Nach Jahrzehnten = repressiver Stagnation beschleunigt sich die Geschichte in Nahost. Und = das wird auch Folgen f=C3=BCr den Rest der Welt haben. Wie dieses Spiel ausgeht, kann keiner so genau wissen. Doch eine = Schl=C3=BCsselrolle kommt dabei =C3=84gypten zu. Das = 82-Millionen-Einwohner-Land im geostrategischen Herzen des Nahen Ostens = ist der gro=C3=9Fe Testfall. Am Nil entscheidet sich, ob das Klischee = vom =E2=80=9Eorientalischen Despotismus=E2=80=9C im Antiquariat landet = und in der arabischen Welt auch ein Leben in Freiheit m=C3=B6glich ist. = Noch ist der Fall nicht gekl=C3=A4rt. Der =C3=9Cbergang zur Demokratie, = den der nun in Kairo regierende Milit=C3=A4rrat versprochen hat, ist = noch nicht geschafft. Skepsis ist angebracht. Die Armee war 30 Jahre = lang wesentlicher Bestandteil und gefr=C3=A4=C3=9Figer Akteur des = korrupten Systems Mubarak. Die Wendeh=C3=A4lse des alten Regimes werden = ihre Pfr=C3=BCnde und Machtbastionen nicht ohne Widerstand r=C3=A4umen. Ungewiss ist zudem, wie sich das politische Kr=C3=A4ftegleichgewicht in = Kairo auspendelt. Es waren junge b=C3=BCrgerliche Schichten, die an der = Spitze der Revolution standen. Doch wird es ihnen gelingen, eine = schlagkr=C3=A4ftige Partei zu bilden? Oder werden am Ende die = Moslembr=C3=BCder die Ernte einfahren? Es sind viele Fragen offen. Auf diesem Weg in eine unklare Zukunft werden Destabilisierungsversuche = nicht lange auf sich warten lassen. Die verbleibende Despotenriege und = die Extremisten vom Schlag der al-Qaida s=C3=A4hen das Demokratie- = Experiment nur allzu gern scheitern. Umso essenzieller ist es, dass der Westen den Demokratisierungsprozess = in den ersten Wochen des Z=C3=B6gerns unterst=C3=BCtzt. Besonders = f=C3=BCr Europa, das zun=C3=A4chst an der Seitenlinie stand und = Stabilit=C3=A4tssto=C3=9Fgebete vor sich hinmurmelte, er=C3=B6ffnen sich = neue Chancen. Jetzt ist der Moment gekommen, die Mittelmeerunion, die = bisher nicht mehr als eine rhetorische und organisatorische H=C3=BClse = war, mit Leben zu erf=C3=BCllen. Die s=C3=BCdlichen Anrainerstaaten des Mittelmeers sind nicht nur = politisch, sondern auch wirtschaftlich unterentwickelt. Man kann diesen = Status quo jedoch auch so lesen, dass die jungen Gesellschaften der = Region gro=C3=9Fes Potenzial in sich bergen. Europa sollte sich = abgew=C3=B6hnen, alles, was aus dem Nahen Osten kommt, als Gefahr zu = sehen. Im Mittelmeerraum kann mit etwas Fantasie (und viel Gl=C3=BCck) = eine neue Zone wirtschaftlicher Prosperit=C3=A4t und demokratischer = Stabilit=C3=A4t entstehen. Nicht realpolitisch genug? Vor Jahresbeginn = hat man noch ganz andere Entwicklungen f=C3=BCr unm=C3=B6glich gehalten. = http://diepresse.com/home/meinung/kommentare/leitartikel/633612/Das-Demok= ratieExperiment-im-Nahen-Osten?from=3Dnewsletter *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************** = Social Policy=20 = People are not unintelligent, merely uninformed = =20 Freudenberg-Pilster = Bella Italiana Rechtsanw=C3=A4ltin- Staatssekret=C3=A4rin a.D. =20 =20 =20 =20 = *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************* *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************* = Politics: from Vision to Action =E2=80=A6 good governance: focus on sharing = benefits, not ownership - setting rules, monitoring, binding methods of = settling disputes =E2=80=A6 = *** =20 Barandat Haaretz: Egypt unrest could = improve Israel ties =20 Bundeswehr =20 Israel's strategic environment - notably the capacity it provides to = avoid making choices and to disguise the status quo as progress - is = about to change. By Daniel Levy=20 Despite the fluidity and uncertainty surrounding the political situation = in Egypt, one thing seems clear: Egypt and indeed the Middle East will = not be the same after January-February 2011. This will apply even if = those in Israel and elsewhere who are pushing for continued military, as = opposed to civilian control, and for "democracy with exceptions" - i.e., = Islamists not allowed - manage to carry the day. (One hopes they will = not .) Those governing Egypt will henceforth have to be more responsive = to the public will. The package of regional policies pursued by the Mubarak regime lacked = popular legitimacy. This included the closure imposed on Gaza, support = for the Iraq war and for heightened bellicosity toward Iran, and playing = ceremonial chaperone to a peace process that became farcical and = discredited. Part of the democracy deficit is also a dignity deficit, as = these policies appeared undignified to the Egyptian public. Insisting on Egyptian adherence to the peace treaty with Israel is a = legitimate position, has international support, and also accords with = both Israeli and Egyptian interests. The treaty has saved lives on both = sides, neither of which relishes the prospect of renewed military = conflagration. The Israeli-Egyptian peace has neutralized any serious = Arab military option vis-a-vis Israel, although the same cannot be said = in reverse. Since signing the accord with Egypt, Israel has conducted = several large-scale military campaigns against Lebanon and against the = Palestinians, launched bombing raids against Syria and Iraq, and = conducted high-profile assassinations in Jordan and the UAE - and that = is only a partial list. To the 1978 Camp David Accords was attached an annex entitled "A = Framework for Peace in the Middle East," which included a commitment to = withdrawal from the Palestinian territories and to negotiating final = status within five years. That of course never happened. What did happen = is that the 10,000 Israeli settlers living in the West Bank when that = accord was signed have become over 300,000 today. Indeed, whether by design or not, the peace treaty with Egypt ushered in = the era of the Israeli "free hand" in the region. Even though it has not = delivered real security and has encouraged an Israeli hubris that can be = both dangerous and self-destructive, that era of hegemony is something = that Israelis are instinctively uncomfortable about losing. It is = equally understandable why such a regional disequilibrium, one that = became more deeply rooted under Mubarak's Egypt, would be both unpopular = and unacceptable to a majority of Arab public opinion. Maintaining the peace treaty has morphed over time into maintaining a = peace process that has ultimately entrenched occupation and settlements = and made a mockery of its Arab participants. Post-transition Egypt is = unlikely to continue playing this game. And without Mubarak's = enthusiastic endorsement, the process itself is likely to further = unravel. It is hard to imagine other Arab states leaping into this = breach, or the Palestinians accepting 20 more years of peace-process = humiliation, or indeed Syria adopting the Egyptian model and signing a = stand-alone peace agreement with Israel. Israel's strategic environment = - notably the capacity it provides to avoid making choices and to = disguise the status quo as progress - is about to change. So how should Israel respond to the changed environment? Thus far we = have been offered two broad approaches by Israeli establishment voices. = One has been to dig in, to convince the West that we are its outpost of = stability in a sea of hostility, and to attempt to make our favorite = adage of being the only democracy in the Middle East an aspiration = rather than a lamentation. In the words of Prime Minister Netanyahu, = "might" is the answer. The second approach advocates an urgent return to = the peace process. Neither will work. The first will exacerbate Israel's = predicament, and the second is too little too late. Israel has a third option, albeit one that is dramatic and out of synch = with today's zeitgeist. It would be perhaps our best and last chance for = a two-state solution, one that would guarantee our future in this = region. While it would involve cutting our losses, it would also have = the potential of unleashing huge benefits - economic, security and more, = for an Israel accepted as part of the tapestry of a democratic Middle = East. Broadly speaking, this option has three components. First, an Israeli = withdrawal to the pre-1967 armistice lines almost without preconditions = or exceptions (minor, equitable and agreed-upon land swaps and = international security guarantees could fall into the latter category ). = Second, Israel should undertake an act of genuine acknowledgement of the = dispossession and displacement visited on the Palestinian people, = including compensating refugees where appropriate, and thus set in = motion the possibility of reconciliation. Third, there needs to be a = clear Israeli commitment to full equality for all of its citizens, = notably including removal of the structural barriers to full civil = rights for the Palestinian Arab minority. Admittedly, this is a path less traveled and one likely to remain so, = and while the alternatives to this path may well include democracy in = the region, they could preclude a future for the State of Israel. While Israeli-Egyptian peace has often been described as a cold peace, = it could perhaps be more accurately framed as a pyramid peace - in which = only the very tips of the respective societies met and forged narrow = common interests. It is high time to reverse that equation and build a = democratic peace between the bases of those pyramids. In truth, the onus = is on Israel to make this happen, and one key will be to take a more = honest and dignified approach to our Palestinian neighbors and = co-citizens and to belatedly implement that regional peace annex from = Camp David.=20 Daniel Levy directs the Middle East Task Force at the New America = Foundation and is an editor of the Middle East Channel at = foreignpolicy.com. http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/egypt-unrest-could-improve-i= srael-ties-1.342648?localLinksEnabled=3Dfalse *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ********************************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ********************************************** =20 Obama careful in = criticism of Iranian crackdown on protests President Obama cautiously criticized the Iranian government Tuesday for = carrying out a deadly crackdown on street demonstrations, as hard-line = legislators in Tehran called for the execution of several prominent = opposition leaders.=20 Obama's careful formulation - calling on the government to allow = protesters to express their grievances but stopping short of calling for = a change in leadership - highlighted the sharp differences between the = political dynamic that his administration faces in Iran and the one that = shaped the recent revolt in Egypt.=20 In Egypt, Obama had to balance the United States' long-standing support = for a secular ally against the reality that popular backing for = President Hosni Mubarak had all but evaporated. But in Iran, Obama = confronts an Islamist regime hostile to U.S. interests and eager to turn = any opposition movement into a proxy for the United States and Israel.=20 Earlier in the day, scores of Iranian lawmakers led a demonstration on = the floor of parliament, calling for the execution of Mir Hossein = Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who have been under house arrest for some = time. In a statement, 221 members of parliament said: "We believe the = people have lost their patience and demand capital punishment."=20 The threat provided an ominous turn to the Iranian unrest, which Obama = had yet to comment on publicly until his Tuesday news conference.=20 In the days before the Egyptian turmoil reached its climax, Obama = aligned himself with the demonstrators' demand for a new government. = With Iran, he has not been so bold.=20 His call for Iran's government to allow peaceful protest echoed the one = he made after the opposition Green Movement emerged on Tehran's streets = in June 2009 following a disputed presidential election, a response many = conservatives criticized as tepid.=20 "We were clear then and we are clear now that what has been true in = Egypt should be true in Iran, which is that people should be able to = express their opinions and their grievances and seek a more responsive = government," Obama said. "What's been different is the Iranian = government's response, which is to shoot people and beat people and = arrest people."=20 Obama spoke as anti-government demonstrations spread in the region, = driven by what he described as "a young, vibrant generation within the = Middle East that is looking for greater opportunity."=20 In a message that he addressed to "friend and foe alike," Obama said, = "If you are governing these countries, you've got to get ahead of = change," a tacit warning to such U.S. allies as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and = others with autocratic rulers contending with rising democracy = movements.=20 The State Department recently began Farsi and Arabic-language Twitter = feeds to better reach those young demonstrators, sending out key = statements from the president and administration officials. The Arabic = feed, launched Feb. 9, has more than 1,200 followers; the Farsi feed, = which began four days later, has nearly 3,500.=20 "What has become clear during Egypt and Tunisia is that you need to = communicate in the space where people are talking," said Tommy Vietor, = the National Security Council spokesman.=20 Obama did not comment directly on the execution threat, made by = fist-pumping lawmakers a day after anti-government demonstrators defied = an official ban on protests.=20 But he said he found it "ironic" that Iran's government is "pretending = to celebrate what happened in Egypt when, in fact, they have acted in = direct contrast to what happened in Egypt by gunning down and beating = people who were trying to express themselves peacefully."=20 The mood on Tehran's streets has changed dramatically since Monday's = demonstration, when two people were killed, according to the = semiofficial Fars News Agency.=20 Although opposition Web sites have said the victims were protesters, = government-backed entities assert that the men were members of a = paramilitary organization and had been killed by the opposition.=20 Kazem Jalali, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy = Commission of the parliament, told Fars that "the efforts of the supreme = leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] were focused on trying to bring Mousavi = and Karroubi back into the folds of the revolution."=20 "But these persons have purged themselves from the system," he said. = "The parliament demands the strongest punishment for Mousavi and = Karroubi."=20 In his news conference, Obama continued to focus on the demonstrations = underway and not on his preferred outcome, a tactic he adopted during = the 18-day uprising in Egypt.=20 Obama had more leverage in Egypt, where Mubarak had enjoyed American = support and billions in U.S. aid since emerging from the military three = decades ago to lead the country after his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, was = assassinated. There was no such support or funding in Iran, where the = 1979 revolution toppled the U.S.-backed shah and ushered in an Islamist = government hostile to most American interests.=20 White House officials say Obama's caution stems from the same concern = that guided his response in June 2009: that a clear U.S. call for regime = change in Iran would allow President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to cast the = protest movement as a creation of Western governments and Israel.=20 Obama pointed to the lack of anti-U.S. sentiment in Tahrir Square during = Egypt's uprising as evidence that allowing demonstrators to take the = lead - without instructions or goals announced from Washington - was the = correct course to take.=20 On Tuesday, Ahmad Khatami, an influential Friday prayer leader appointed = by Khamenei, said the opposition leaders were guilty of "moharebeh," a = legal term in Shiite Islam that means "waging war against God." The = crime carries the death penalty in Iran.=20 In theory, Iran's judiciary would decide whether to press the case, but = the issue is likely to fall to Khamenei, who decides all important = matters of state.=20 During the past year, he effectively prevented the arrests of Karroubi = and Mousavi by offering them a path to redemption if they admitted their = mistakes and endorsed Iran's Islamist system.=20 Their arrests would escalate tensions on Tehran's streets, where there = have been no new protests since Monday's crackdown.=20 Speaking live on state television, Ahmadinejad said anti-government = demonstrators and their leaders planned to tarnish the "brilliance" of = the Iranian nation.=20 "The Iranian nation is a shining sun," Ahmadinejad said. "They threw = some dust toward the sun. . . . They should know that the dust will = certainly return into their own eyes."=20 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/15/AR2011021= 506096.html?hpid=3Dtopnews *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************************************ *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************************************************************ = Middle East: Alert = sharing news on global affairs / oil / gas / politics Water shortages to = force Mideast cooperation: study Downstream territories such as Israel, Jordan = and Palestinian territories were in the worst position.=20 GENEVA, Feb 10, 2011 (AFP) - A report for the Swiss and Swedish = governments warned on Thursday that water shortages in the Middle East = were so alarming that opposing camps in the region would have little = choice but to cooperate.=20 Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey called for closer cooperation = between Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinians and = Israel on managing increasingly scarce water resources, arguing that = water could also be used to forge a "blue peace."=20 "The report comes to an alarming conclusion; five of the seven countries = are experiencing a structural shortage and debit of most of the big = rivers has declined by 50 to 90 percent between 1960," she told = journalists.=20 "In the future the main geopolitical resource in the Middle East will be = water more than oil," she added, warning that it was closely tied to = peace efforts.=20 The report by an Indian thinktank, Strategic Foresight Group, = highlighted huge depletion of major rivers such as the Jordan and = Yarmouk in the past half a century, the punctual depletion of the = Euphrates by drought and the shrinkage of the Dead Sea to a small lake = by 2050.=20 However, the report also acknowledged the difference between the = countries, with upstream Turkey in a position to "influence prospects of = peace" despite the collapse of 1980s plan to pipe water to Israel and = Gulf states.=20 Downstream territories such as Israel, Jordan and Palestinian = territories were in the worst position with mounting clean water = deficits of up to 500-700 million cubic metres each.=20 The report also argued that technical solutions such as desalination or = wastewater recycling in Israel would ultimately have limited scope.=20 "Purely unilateral solutions will mainly work for a decade or so but = Israel will have to look for external sources and regional cooperation = beyond 2020 to ensure its water security," it said.=20 Swiss diplomats said they had already started to lobby the seven = governments for a joint water cooperation council expanding on an = nascent Turkish, Iraqi, Jordanian and Syrian effort, as well as other = steps, even if they admitted that it would be challenging. http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm?id=3DANA20110210T162759ZRBI20&l=3D16280311= 0210&zawyaemailmarketing *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *********************************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *********************************************** = =20 Massenbach'sRecommendation =20 Dissecting = Japan's New Defense Guidelines While Tokyo's new defense guidelines don't revise its = =E2=80=98non-nuclear principles=E2=80=99, lift its ban on weapon and = weapon technology exports, amend its =E2=80=98pacifist = constitution=E2=80=99, or allow its soldiers to execute the right to = collective self-defense =E2=80=93 at least not yet =E2=80=93 other = remarkable transformations are contained therein. By Axel Berkofsky for ISN Insights=20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------= ------- The December 2010 adoption of Tokyo's new defense guidelines - the = so-called National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) first adopted in = 1976 and subsequently updated in 1995 and 2004 - transform Japan's = security and defense policies from 'basic' to 'flexible and dynamic', in = essence meaning that Japan now reserves the right to upgrade its = military capabilities, increasing its defense expenditures beyond one = percent of GDP - a self-imposed limit that has served as a guiding = principle of Japanese defense policy for decades.=20 For an allegedly 'pacifist' country equipped with a constitution that = does not allow for the maintenance of armed forces, it is remarkable = that Japan should now contribute to regional stability by "increasing = the activity" of its defense hardware and "clearly demonstrating its = advanced capabilities", according to the guidelines.=20 Although Tokyo will not (at least not yet) equip itself with 'real' = offensive military power projection capabilities, the defense guidelines = are clearly aimed at equipping Japan's military capabilities to react to = crisis scenarios that go beyond the defense of Japanese territory on the = Japanese 'mainland.'=20 In reaction, mainland China's policymakers expressed little concern for = the possible implications of the defense guidelines for actual Japanese = defense and security policies, instead stressing that Japan's warnings = about China's military rise were misguided. The assertion that "China's = military development and the lack of transparency are matters of = concern" was dismissed as "irresponsible" and "totally groundless" by = the state-controlled China Daily. To be sure, China's recent public = announcement that it would speed up the development of an aircraft = carrier fleet (to be deployed in the East China Sea) confirmed that = Japan's concerns might be anything but groundless and irresponsible, at = least from the standpoint of Japan's defense planners.=20 The defense guidelines will be accompanied by a re-structuring of = Japan's armed forces, including a very noteworthy upgrade of the = country's naval and coast guard capabilities. Until 2012, 21 new patrol = ships and seven new reconnaissance jets will be added to the Japan Coast = Guard fleet to be dispatched to where the (potential) 'action' is: the = East China Sea.=20 In addition, Japan's navy will increase the number of its AEGIS = destroyers from four to six. AEGIS destroyers are equipped with = antimissile systems and are at least in theory able to shoot down = incoming North Korean Nodong missiles aimed at downtown Tokyo in less = than 10 minutes. The number of Japanese submarines will also be = increased from 16 to 22, while the number of tanks will be reduced from = 600 to 400.=20 All of this, however, will take place in times of fiscal austerity: Over = the next three to four years the defense budget will be decreased by = five percent, raising doubts about the feasibility of parts of this = envisioned military upgrade.=20 Weapons export ban remains in place - for now=20 Japan's self-imposed ban to export weapons and weapons technology will = remain in place, although it was widely anticipated in the second half = of 2010 that the government would officially abolish the ban to enable = the domestic defense industry to join international weapons' development = projects.=20 Since 1967, Japan has maintained a policy of refusing to export weapons = or weapons technology, and until mid-December 2010, Tokyo had planned to = lift that ban to allow Japanese defense contractors to export weapons = and weapons technology that would be exclusively used in either UN = peacekeeping and peace-enforcement missions or missions combating = international terrorism. In the framework of such missions, Japanese = defense contractors envisioned joint projects with counterparts in = Australia, South Korea, the US and Europe.=20 Days before the adoption of the defense guidelines, however, Japanese = Prime Minister Naoto Kan changed his mind due to domestic political = considerations. The government's current (People's New Party (PNP) and = former (Social Democratic Party, SDP) coalition partners are vehemently = opposed to revising the export ban and threatened to block the = government's lawmaking initiatives if the prime minister decided to = scrap it.=20 However, the new guidelines do not exclude the possibility of revisiting = the decision: "Measures to follow the international trend of defense = equipment will be studied".=20 To be sure such an ambiguous approach stands for everything that is = wrong with the government's approach to defense and security issues, = according to a Japanese scholar and security expert who wished not to be = identified. "If the government wants to open new possibilities for = Japanese companies to participate in international joint ventures, we = should not avoid a clear political decision to change the principles = themselves. It is time to stop deceiving the public and the opposition = parties on defense", he told ISN Insights. "The defense guidelines speak = of exploring possibilities for more international joint ventures [...] = How can we do that without addressing the issue of the three = principles?"=20 To be sure, Japan's defense industry will continue to exert pressure on = the government to abolish the ban and will continue to collaborate with = US defense contractors in the context of developing a US-Japan missile = defense system, a de-facto violation of the ban since the early 2000s.=20 =E2=80=A6 And not going nuclear either=20 While the July 2010 draft defense guidelines recommended the revision of = at least one so-called 'Non-Nuclear Principle', namely the introduction = of US nuclear weapons into Japan in the case of a military emergency, = the final version makes no such mention.=20 There are three 'Non-Nuclear Principles', outlined in a late 1960s = parliamentary resolution that states that Japan shall neither 1. possess = nor 2. manufacture nuclear weapons nor shall it 3. permit their = introduction into Japanese territory.=20 To be sure, Japan has over the decades officially allowed the violation = of one of the 'Non-Nuclear Principles.' Since the late 1960s and = throughout the Cold War, US Navy ships equipped with nuclear weapons = visited Japanese ports, a fact officially acknowledged by a = government-nominated Ministry of Foreign Affairs panel in March 2010.=20 More Blanks=20 And there are more blanks in the guidelines, at least as far as the = country's defense hawks are concerned: Neither constitutional revision = nor the right to collective self-defense make it into the guidelines, = i.e. the right to defend soldiers from other countries in the framework = of international missions.=20 To be sure, both are 'evergreen' topics on Japan's security policy = agenda, and while there is wide agreement that constitutional revision - = i.e. revising the constitution's Article 9 in order to officially allow = Japan to maintain armed forces (the reason why Japan's soldiers are = referred to as 'Self-Defense Forces') - will not make it anywhere near = the top of the governing Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) policy agenda = anytime soon, there is no practical need to change the government's = interpretation of collective self-defense.=20 Instead, Tokyo will continue to 'stretch' the definition of individual = self-defense as it sees fit. The navy's refueling mission in the Indian = Ocean (2001-2009), the army's operation in Iraq (2004-2006) and the = navy's anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden off the Somali coast = were all missions of 'individual' and not 'collective' self-defense as = far as Tokyo was concerned. Indeed, Tokyo has explained that it is = defending Japanese national security and territory in the Indian Ocean, = southern Iraq and now Somalia.=20 Collective self-defense through the back-door, so to speak.=20 Hawks knocking at the door?=20 The Japanese government on the other hand might exit through the front = door soon, in view of Kan's rapidly decreasing popularity with both the = electorate and his own party insiders.=20 A possible frontrunner for the DPJ's leadership and the prime minister = post is the party's current Secretary General Katsuya Okada, who has in = the past presented himself much more assertively on defense and security = issues, including temporary but official support to allow US warships to = introduce nuclear weapons into Japan in the case of military emergency.=20 Kan's job could be on the line very soon, possibly in a few weeks, = should he not be able to get his coalition partners and parts of the = political opposition to support budget bills for this fiscal year by the = end of next month. At the center of the controversy - potentially = leading to a snap general election in the weeks ahead - is Kan's plan to = increase Japan's consumption tax.=20 Until then - and most probably long after - Japan will continue to = muddle through or "lie", as an official from Japan's Ministry of Foreign = Affairs tells ISN Insights, selling its soldiers' contributions to = international missions as 'individual self-defense', come what may.=20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------= ------- Professor Axel Berkofsky is Gianni Mazzocchi Fellow at the University of = Pavia, Italy and Senior Associate Research Fellow at the Milan-based = Istituto per Gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI).=20 http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=3Den&i= d=3D126835&contextid734=3D126835&contextid735=3D126833&tabid=3D1268331268= 35=20 *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************* *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************* Ermittlungsaktionen gegen "friedliche Islamisten" ist = nun vollst=C3=A4ndig eingestellt mit Schadenersatz=20 08.02.2011=20 Eine der bundesweit gr=C3=B6=C3=9Ften Ermittlungsaktionen gegen = "friedliche Islamisten" ist nun vollst=C3=A4ndig eingestellt worden.=20 Sie endete mit dem knappen brieflichen Hinweis der M=C3=BCnchner = Staatsanwaltschaft an die Betroffenen, ihnen stehe Schadenersatz zu.=20 Bei den Verd=C3=A4chtigten handelte es sich um F=C3=BChrungsfiguren der = vom Verfassungsschutz beobachteten Islamischen Gemeinschaft Milli = G=C3=B6r=C3=BCs (IGMG) und der Islamischen Gemeinschaft in Deutschland = (IGD). 2008 und 2009 war es bei IGMG-Generalsekret=C3=A4r Oguz = =C3=9Cc=C3=BCnc=C3=BC und beim Ex-IGD-Vorsitzenden Ibrahim El-Zayat zu = einer Serie von Hausdurchsuchungen gekommen. Dabei kam auch = Verm=C3=B6gen zu Schaden, was im Fall vollst=C3=A4ndig eingestellter = Ermittlungen Ersatzanspr=C3=BCche ausl=C3=B6st.=20 Vorgeworfen wurde den beiden Funktion=C3=A4ren unter anderem die Bildung = einer kriminellen Vereinigung, Geldw=C3=A4sche, Betrug und Veruntreuung = religi=C3=B6ser Spenden.=20 Innenminister Thomas de Maizi=C3=A8re (CDU) lud daraufhin sogar den von = Milli G=C3=B6r=C3=BCs dominierten Islamrat aus der Deutschen = Islamkonferenz aus. =C3=9Cc=C3=BCnc=C3=BC und El-Zayat wiederum wurden = bei der Islamkonferenz zu unerw=C3=BCnschten Personen erkl=C3=A4rt. http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/politik/article12476277/Deutschland.htm= l *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ******************************************************************* Fatale Vorliebe = f=C3=BCr Milit=C3=A4rregime=20 Die Neue Z=C3=BCrcher Zeitung hat am 15. Februar 2011 in ihrer = schweizerischen Ausgabe, am 16. Februar 2011 in der internationalen = Ausgabe und online den folgenden Artikel von Dr. Gerhard Fulda = ver=C3=B6ffentlicht. Dr. Fulda, Mitglied des Vorstands der DAG, hatte = die =C3=A4gyptische Revoution hautnah in Kairo miterlebt. Die NZZ hat seinen Text ohne R=C3=BCcksprache gek=C3=BCrzt. Diesem = Eingriff sind unter anderem gegen Ende des Textes die beiden folgenden = S=C3=A4tze zum Opfer gefallen: Wir m=C3=BCssen nach L=C3=B6sungen suchen, die auch berechtigte = israelische Interessen sch=C3=BCtzen.=20 Wir d=C3=BCrfen nicht mehr alles akzeptieren, was Israel als berechtigte = Interessen bezeichnet. Fatale Vorliebe f=C3=BCr Milit=C3=A4rregime Der Westen hat nicht nur in der arabischen Welt zu oft = Milit=C3=A4rregime unterst=C3=BCtzt. =C3=9Cberall in = Schwellenl=C3=A4ndern tat man so, als schl=C3=B6ssen sich = Stabilit=C3=A4t und Demokratie gegenseitig aus. In Kairo hat eine = Milit=C3=A4rf=C3=BChrung die Macht =C3=BCbernommen, die f=C3=BCr die = Fehlentwicklungen der Vergangenheit selbst verantwortlich ist. Von = Gerhard Fulda Europa und die USA haben nicht gut ausgesehen in ihrer Reaktion auf die = =C3=A4gyptische Begeisterung f=C3=BCr die Demokratie. Sie waren = =C3=BCberrascht, zerrissen zwischen eigenen Interessen und denen = Israels, befangen in =C3=BCberholten Denkmustern in Bezug auf = Milit=C3=A4rregime und gegen=C3=BCber islamisch orientierter Politik. = Die ersten Reaktionen auf den R=C3=BCckzug Mubaraks lassen nicht = erkennen, dass der Westen aus seinen Fehlern bereits gelernt h=C3=A4tte. = Stabilit=C3=A4t ist seit Jahrzehnten das Stichwort, dem in der = westlichen Aussenpolitik fast alle anderen Kategorien politischer = Bewertung untergeordnet wurden. Hinter diesem Schlagwort liessen sich = ganz andere Interessen trefflich verstecken.=20 Antiislamischer Impuls Politische Priorit=C3=A4ten standen der F=C3=B6rderung demokratischer = und menschenrechtlicher Entwicklungen oft im Wege. =C3=84gypten ist = daf=C3=BCr ein markantes Beispiel. Unter Nasser hat der Westen nicht auf = dessen Polizei geschaut, zuerst, weil man das Land nicht an den Ostblock = verlieren, dann, weil man es wieder zur=C3=BCckholen wollte. Unter Sadat = und Mubarak waren deren Beziehungen zu Israel wichtiger als Folter, = fehlende Demokratie und soziale Fehlentwicklungen. In den letzten zehn = Jahren ist dann oft ein antiislamischer Impuls wirksam geworden, der dem = Polizeistaat die Unterdr=C3=BCckung der Muslimbr=C3=BCder dankte.=20 In Schwellenl=C3=A4ndern konnte man im Gespr=C3=A4ch mit = Repr=C3=A4sentanten der europ=C3=A4ischen Exportindustrie den Eindruck = gewinnen, Demokratie und Stabilit=C3=A4t schl=C3=B6ssen sich gegenseitig = aus. Das hing mit der allgegenw=C3=A4rtigen Korruption zusammen. Bei = einem Regierungswechsel musste herausgefunden werden, wer f=C3=BCr = welche Entscheidungen besonderer Aufmerksamkeit bedurfte. Unter diesem = Blickwinkel konnte es so weit kommen, dass eine Wende zur Demokratie die = Herabstufung im Kredit-Ranking nach sich zog. Dabei wurde vergessen, = dass demokratische Regierungswechsel Druck abbauen, ehe das ganze System = mit viel gr=C3=B6sserem wirtschaftlichem Schaden explodiert.=20 Jetzt dr=C3=A4ngt uns das demokratische Aufbegehren in der arabischen = Welt zum Umdenken. Der Westen hat dort zu wichtige Interessen, als dass = er weiterhin dazu Anlass geben sollte, dass man ihm das Reden mit = gespaltener Zunge vorwerfen kann. Die Aussenministerien Europas brauchen = nicht nur Demokratiebeauftragte, sondern auch = demokratiewissenschaftliche Beir=C3=A4te. An die Stelle des =C2=ABWeiter = so=C2=BB sollten koh=C3=A4rente Konzepte treten, mit denen die komplexen = Themen Milit=C3=A4rherrschaft, Wirtschaft, Israel, Islam und eben = Demokratie zusammengef=C3=BChrt werden.=20 Die europ=C3=A4ische Politik hat sich mit den USA auf das Stichwort = =C2=ABgeordneter =C3=9Cbergang unter Federf=C3=BChrung des = Milit=C3=A4rs=C2=BB geeinigt. Das beruhte jedoch zum Teil auf einer = Fehleinsch=C3=A4tzung der bisherigen Rolle des =C3=A4gyptischen = Milit=C3=A4rs. Sp=C3=A4testens seit der Behauptung des neuen = Vizepr=C3=A4sidenten, =C3=84gypten sei nicht reif f=C3=BCr die = Demokratie, wissen wir, dass Teile der Milit=C3=A4rf=C3=BChrung dort = nicht reif sind f=C3=BCr die Demokratie. Dieses Missverst=C3=A4ndnis = beruht auch auf dem Wissen, dass =C3=84gypter ihr Milit=C3=A4r seit = Nasser fast verehrt haben.=20 Es war die einzige Armee, die je gegen Israel eine Schlacht gewonnen = hatte. Offizier werden zu k=C3=B6nnen, wurde zum wichtigsten Berufsziel, = das sich jedoch nur den besten Schulabg=C3=A4ngern er=C3=B6ffnete. Der = permanente Ausnahmezustand, die Bespitzelung, die Brutalit=C3=A4t der = Sicherheitsorgane, die Unterdr=C3=BCckung der Muslimbr=C3=BCder, die = Ausschaltung jeglicher Opposition, die Manipulation der Wahlergebnisse = =E2=80=93 alles wurde nur der Polizei angelastet. Die gute Armee gegen = die b=C3=B6se Polizei, dies Stereotyp wirkte noch nach in der = Begr=C3=BCssung der Panzer auf dem Tahrir-Platz.=20 Arabische Demokratie Aber auch Polizei und Geheimdienste wurden in Wirklichkeit von aus dem = Milit=C3=A4r stammenden Gener=C3=A4len geleitet. Alle Pr=C3=A4sidenten = bisher waren Milit=C3=A4rs. Die Ausgestaltung der Politik, auch die = Entscheidungen =C3=BCber den Wegfall rechtsstaatlicher Kontrollen = f=C3=BCr die Polizei, wurde letztlich aus dem milit=C3=A4rischen Apparat = bewirkt. Die Verantwortung f=C3=BCr Jahrzehnte verfehlter Politik liegt = beim Milit=C3=A4r. Und trotzdem hat jetzt das Milit=C3=A4r gegen sich = selbst geputscht. Denn die Parolen der Demonstranten waren eindeutig: = Mubarak stand f=C3=BCr das milit=C3=A4rische System, Mubarak sollte weg = und mit ihm =E2=80=93 immer wieder lautstark gefordert =E2=80=93 = =C2=ABan-Nizam=C2=BB, das System. Deshalb brannte die Parteizentrale, = deshalb konnten die Protestierenden in der Ernennung Suleimans keinen = Wandel erkennen. Die Liebe zum Milit=C3=A4r hat Risse bekommen.=20 =C3=84usserungen an der M=C3=BCnchner Sicherheitskonferenz liessen = bereits bef=C3=BCrchten, dass die Glaubw=C3=BCrdigkeit westlicher Rufe = nach Demokratie erneut Schaden nehmen w=C3=BCrde =E2=80=93 wie beim = Sturz Mossadeghs 1953 in Iran, wie in Algerien 1992, wie 2006 beim = Wahlsieg der Hamas. Es verwundert nicht, dass die israelische Regierung = Mubarak unbedingt halten wollte. Nat=C3=BCrlich k=C3=B6nnte die = israelische Politik gegen=C3=BCber den Pal=C3=A4stinensern im = Gazastreifen nicht wie bisher fortgesetzt werden, wenn in Kairo eine = Regierung unter Beteiligung der Muslimbr=C3=BCder gew=C3=A4hlt = w=C3=BCrde. Dabei haben die Muslimbr=C3=BCder in Kairo schon l=C3=A4ngst = erkl=C3=A4rt, sie w=C3=BCrden nicht versuchen, die Beziehungen zu Israel = abzubrechen. Die Muslimbr=C3=BCder =C3=84gyptens haben den Terror der = Kaida als Perversion des Islam bezeichnet. Doch der Westen scheint zu = glauben, ihre Regierungsbeteiligung in =C3=84gypten werde noch = unertr=C3=A4glicher sein als das Regime Mubaraks. Heute m=C3=BCssen wir eingestehen: Die =C3=A4gyptische Bev=C3=B6lkerung = hat dem Westen eine Lektion in Sachen Demokratie erteilt. Wir = m=C3=BCssen aufh=C3=B6ren, Stabilit=C3=A4t nur von = Milit=C3=A4rregierungen zu erwarten. Wir m=C3=BCssen demokratisch = zustande gekommene Wahlergebnisse auch dann respektieren, wenn Muslime = Muslime w=C3=A4hlen. Wir d=C3=BCrfen nicht weiterhin alle unter einer = islamischen Fahne antretenden Politiker als Extremisten betrachten.=20 Gerhard Fulda ist ehemaliger deutscher Botschafter. Link zum Artikel in der NZZ. =20 https://www.d-a-g.de/index.php?option=3Dcom_content&task=3Dview&id=3D592&= Itemid=3D1=20 *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************** see our letter on: http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html Wir w=C3=BCnschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende. Ihr Team. *************************************************************************= **************************************** Udo von Massenbach - B=C3=A4rbel Freudenberg-Pilster - J=C3=B6rg = Barandat =20 UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de Mail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de =20 JoergBarandat@yahoo.de ------=_NextPart_001_04F2_01CBCE7A.76194290 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Guten Morgen.
 
see our letter again = on: http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html
 
Haaretz:  Egypt=20 unrest could improve Israel ties         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;     =20     =     =  

Obama=20 careful in criticism of Iranian crackdown on protests

Water=20 shortages to force Mideast cooperation
Dissecting=20 Japan's New Defense Guidelines 
 
NZZ: Fatale=20 Vorliebe f=C3=BCr Milit=C3=A4rregime
 
Massenbach =20           &nbs= p;          =20 Die Presse(Wien) Das=20 Demokratie-Experiment im Nahen=20 Osten
Publicist

In =C3=84gypten = entscheidet sich, ob=20 auch in der arabischen Welt ein dauerhaftes Leben in Freiheit = m=C3=B6glich ist.=20 Europa sollte diesen Prozess mit aller Macht unterst=C3=BCtzen =E2=80=93 = auch zu seinem=20 eigenen Nutzen.

Vor ein paar Wochen h=C3=A4tte das niemand = f=C3=BCr m=C3=B6glich=20 gehalten. 2011 wird das Jahr des gro=C3=9Fen Umbruchs im Nahen Osten. Am = 14.J=C3=A4nner=20 jagten die Tunesier ihren Diktator Ben Ali aus dem Amt. Nicht einmal = einen Monat=20 sp=C3=A4ter st=C3=BCrzte nun der =C3=A4gyptische Langzeitherrscher Hosni = Mubarak. Ein Ende der=20 Umw=C3=A4lzungen ist nicht abzusehen. Von Rabat bis Amman wackeln die = Throne, von=20 Tripolis bis Sanaa zittern die Despoten. Der Aufstand der arabischen = B=C3=BCrger=20 breitet sich aus wie das sprichw=C3=B6rtliche Lauffeuer. Eine Revolution = inspiriert=20 die andere. Nach Jahrzehnten repressiver Stagnation beschleunigt sich = die=20 Geschichte in Nahost. Und das wird auch Folgen f=C3=BCr den Rest der = Welt=20 haben.

Wie dieses Spiel ausgeht, kann keiner so genau = wissen.=20 Doch eine Schl=C3=BCsselrolle kommt dabei =C3=84gypten zu. Das = 82-Millionen-Einwohner-Land=20 im geostrategischen Herzen des Nahen Ostens ist der gro=C3=9Fe Testfall. = Am Nil=20 entscheidet sich, ob das Klischee vom =E2=80=9Eorientalischen = Despotismus=E2=80=9C im=20 Antiquariat landet und in der arabischen Welt auch ein Leben in Freiheit = m=C3=B6glich=20 ist. Noch ist der Fall nicht gekl=C3=A4rt. Der =C3=9Cbergang zur = Demokratie, den der nun=20 in Kairo regierende Milit=C3=A4rrat versprochen hat, ist noch nicht = geschafft.=20 Skepsis ist angebracht. Die Armee war 30 Jahre lang wesentlicher = Bestandteil und=20 gefr=C3=A4=C3=9Figer Akteur des korrupten Systems Mubarak. Die = Wendeh=C3=A4lse des alten=20 Regimes werden ihre Pfr=C3=BCnde und Machtbastionen nicht ohne = Widerstand=20 r=C3=A4umen.

Ungewiss ist zudem, wie sich das politische=20 Kr=C3=A4ftegleichgewicht in Kairo auspendelt. Es waren junge = b=C3=BCrgerliche Schichten,=20 die an der Spitze der Revolution standen. Doch wird es ihnen gelingen, = eine=20 schlagkr=C3=A4ftige Partei zu bilden? Oder werden am Ende die = Moslembr=C3=BCder die Ernte=20 einfahren? Es sind viele Fragen offen.

Auf diesem Weg in eine unklare Zukunft werden=20 Destabilisierungsversuche nicht lange auf sich warten lassen. Die = verbleibende=20 Despotenriege und die Extremisten vom Schlag der al-Qaida s=C3=A4hen das = Demokratie-=20 Experiment nur allzu gern scheitern.

Umso essenzieller ist es, dass der Westen den=20 Demokratisierungsprozess in den ersten Wochen des Z=C3=B6gerns = unterst=C3=BCtzt. Besonders=20 f=C3=BCr Europa, das zun=C3=A4chst an der Seitenlinie stand und = Stabilit=C3=A4tssto=C3=9Fgebete vor=20 sich hinmurmelte, er=C3=B6ffnen sich neue Chancen. Jetzt ist der Moment = gekommen, die=20 Mittelmeerunion, die bisher nicht mehr als eine rhetorische und = organisatorische=20 H=C3=BClse war, mit Leben zu erf=C3=BCllen.

Die s=C3=BCdlichen Anrainerstaaten des = Mittelmeers sind nicht=20 nur politisch, sondern auch wirtschaftlich unterentwickelt. Man kann = diesen=20 Status quo jedoch auch so lesen, dass die jungen Gesellschaften der = Region=20 gro=C3=9Fes Potenzial in sich bergen. Europa sollte sich = abgew=C3=B6hnen, alles, was aus=20 dem Nahen Osten kommt, als Gefahr zu sehen. Im Mittelmeerraum kann mit = etwas=20 Fantasie (und viel Gl=C3=BCck) eine neue Zone wirtschaftlicher = Prosperit=C3=A4t und=20 demokratischer Stabilit=C3=A4t entstehen. Nicht realpolitisch genug? Vor = Jahresbeginn=20 hat man noch ganz andere Entwicklungen f=C3=BCr unm=C3=B6glich = gehalten.

 http://diepresse.com/home/meinung/kommentare/leitartikel/633612/= Das-DemokratieExperiment-im-Nahen-Osten?from=3Dnewsletter

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           =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;          =20 Politics: from = Vision to=20 Action
 
           =             &= nbsp; =20   =E2=80=A6 good governance: focus on sharing benefits, not = ownership -=20 setting rules, monitoring, binding methods of settling disputes=20 =E2=80=A6
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Barandat=20            =             &= nbsp;          =20 Haaretz:  Egypt unrest = could=20 improve Israel=20 ties         = ;            =             &= nbsp;      =20        =20
Bundeswehr   =20                         &nbs= p;            = ;     =20
Israel's strategic = environment -=20 notably the capacity it provides to avoid making choices and to disguise = the=20 status quo as progress - is about to change.
By=20 Daniel = Levy 

Despite the fluidity and uncertainty surrounding = the=20 political situation in Egypt, one thing seems clear: Egypt and indeed = the Middle=20 East will not be the same after January-February 2011. This will apply = even if=20 those in Israel and elsewhere who are pushing for continued military, as = opposed=20 to civilian control, and for "democracy with exceptions" - i.e., = Islamists not=20 allowed - manage to carry the day. (One hopes they will not .) Those = governing=20 Egypt will henceforth have to be more responsive to the public = will.

The package of regional policies pursued by the = Mubarak=20 regime lacked popular legitimacy. This included the closure imposed on = Gaza,=20 support for the Iraq war and for heightened bellicosity toward Iran, and = playing=20 ceremonial chaperone to a peace process that became farcical and = discredited.=20 Part of the democracy deficit is also a dignity deficit, as these = policies=20 appeared undignified to the Egyptian public.

Insisting on Egyptian adherence to the peace = treaty with=20 Israel is a legitimate position, has international support, and also = accords=20 with both Israeli and Egyptian interests. The treaty has saved lives on = both=20 sides, neither of which relishes the prospect of renewed military = conflagration.=20 The Israeli-Egyptian peace has neutralized any serious Arab military = option=20 vis-a-vis Israel, although the same cannot be said in reverse. Since = signing the=20 accord with Egypt, Israel has conducted several large-scale military = campaigns=20 against Lebanon and against the Palestinians, launched bombing raids = against=20 Syria and Iraq, and conducted high-profile assassinations in Jordan and = the UAE=20 - and that is only a partial list.

To the 1978 Camp David Accords was attached an = annex=20 entitled "A Framework for Peace in the Middle East," which included a = commitment=20 to withdrawal from the Palestinian territories and to negotiating final = status=20 within five years. That of course never happened. What did happen is = that the=20 10,000 Israeli settlers living in the West Bank when that accord was = signed have=20 become over 300,000 today.

Indeed, whether by design or not, the peace = treaty with=20 Egypt ushered in the era of the Israeli "free hand" in the region. Even = though=20 it has not delivered real security and has encouraged an Israeli hubris = that can=20 be both dangerous and self-destructive, that era of hegemony is = something that=20 Israelis are instinctively uncomfortable about losing. It is equally=20 understandable why such a regional disequilibrium, one that became more = deeply=20 rooted under Mubarak's Egypt, would be both unpopular and unacceptable = to a=20 majority of Arab public opinion.

Maintaining the peace treaty has morphed over = time into=20 maintaining a peace process that has ultimately entrenched occupation = and=20 settlements and made a mockery of its Arab participants. Post-transition = Egypt=20 is unlikely to continue playing this game. And without Mubarak's = enthusiastic=20 endorsement, the process itself is likely to further unravel. It is hard = to=20 imagine other Arab states leaping into this breach, or the Palestinians=20 accepting 20 more years of peace-process humiliation, or indeed Syria = adopting=20 the Egyptian model and signing a stand-alone peace agreement with = Israel.=20 Israel's strategic environment - notably the capacity it provides to = avoid=20 making choices and to disguise the status quo as progress - is about to=20 change.

So how should Israel respond to the changed = environment?=20 Thus far we have been offered two broad approaches by Israeli = establishment=20 voices. One has been to dig in, to convince the West that we are its = outpost of=20 stability in a sea of hostility, and to attempt to make our favorite = adage of=20 being the only democracy in the Middle East an aspiration rather than a=20 lamentation. In the words of Prime Minister Netanyahu, "might" is the = answer.=20 The second approach advocates an urgent return to the peace process. = Neither=20 will work. The first will exacerbate Israel's predicament, and the = second is too=20 little too late.

Israel has a third option, albeit one that is = dramatic and=20 out of synch with today's zeitgeist. It would be perhaps our best and = last=20 chance for a two-state solution, one that would guarantee our future in = this=20 region. While it would involve cutting our losses, it would also have = the=20 potential of unleashing huge benefits - economic, security and more, for = an=20 Israel accepted as part of the tapestry of a democratic Middle = East.

Broadly speaking, this option has three = components. First,=20 an Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 armistice lines almost without=20 preconditions or exceptions (minor, equitable and agreed-upon land swaps = and=20 international security guarantees could fall into the latter category ). = Second,=20 Israel should undertake an act of genuine acknowledgement of the = dispossession=20 and displacement visited on the Palestinian people, including = compensating=20 refugees where appropriate, and thus set in motion the possibility of=20 reconciliation. Third, there needs to be a clear Israeli commitment to = full=20 equality for all of its citizens, notably including removal of the = structural=20 barriers to full civil rights for the Palestinian Arab = minority.

Admittedly, this is a path less traveled and one = likely to=20 remain so, and while the alternatives to this path may well include = democracy in=20 the region, they could preclude a future for the State of = Israel.

While Israeli-Egyptian peace has often been = described as a=20 cold peace, it could perhaps be more accurately framed as a pyramid = peace - in=20 which only the very tips of the respective societies met and forged = narrow=20 common interests. It is high time to reverse that equation and build a=20 democratic peace between the bases of those pyramids. In truth, the onus = is on=20 Israel to make this happen, and one key will be to take a more honest = and=20 dignified approach to our Palestinian neighbors and co-citizens and to = belatedly=20 implement that regional peace annex from Camp David. 

Daniel Levy directs the Middle East = Task Force=20 at the New America Foundation and is an editor of the Middle East = Channel at=20 foreignpolicy.com.

http://www.haaretz= .com/print-edition/opinion/egypt-unrest-could-improve-israel-ties-1.34264= 8?localLinksEnabled=3Dfalse
 
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         &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;            =  =20 Obama careful in criticism of Iranian crackdown on=20 protests

President Obama = cautiously=20 criticized the Iranian government Tuesday for carrying out a deadly = crackdown on=20 street demonstrations, as hard-line legislators in Tehran called for the = execution of several prominent opposition leaders.

Obama's careful formulation - = calling on the=20 government to allow protesters to express their grievances but stopping = short of=20 calling for a change in leadership - highlighted the sharp differences between the political = dynamic=20 that his administration faces in Iran and the one that shaped the recent revolt in = Egypt.

In=20 Egypt, Obama had to=20 balance the United States' long-standing support for a secular ally = against the=20 reality that popular backing for President Hosni Mubarak had all but = evaporated.=20 But in Iran, Obama confronts an Islamist regime hostile to U.S. = interests and=20 eager to turn any opposition movement into a proxy for the United States = and=20 Israel.=20

Earlier in the day, = scores of Iranian=20 lawmakers led a demonstration on the floor of parliament, calling for = the=20 execution of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who have been under = house=20 arrest for some time. In a statement, 221 members of parliament said: = "We=20 believe the people have lost their patience and demand capital = punishment."=20

The threat provided an = ominous turn=20 to the Iranian unrest, which Obama had yet to comment on publicly until = his=20 Tuesday news conference.

In the days before the = Egyptian=20 turmoil reached its climax, Obama aligned himself with the = demonstrators' demand=20 for a new government. With Iran, he has not been so bold.

His call for Iran's = government to=20 allow peaceful protest echoed the one he made after the opposition Green = Movement emerged on Tehran's streets in June 2009 following a disputed=20 presidential election, a response many conservatives criticized as = tepid.=20

"We were clear then and = we are clear=20 now that what has been true in Egypt should be true in Iran, which is = that=20 people should be able to express their opinions and their grievances and = seek a=20 more responsive government," Obama said. "What's been different is the = Iranian=20 government's response, which is to shoot people and beat people and = arrest=20 people."

Obama spoke as = anti-government=20 demonstrations spread in the region, driven by what he described as "a = young,=20 vibrant generation within the Middle East that is looking for greater=20 opportunity."

In a=20 message that he addressed to "friend and foe alike," Obama said, "If you = are=20 governing these countries, you've got to get ahead of change," a tacit = warning=20 to such U.S. allies as Saudi Arabia,=20 Jordan and others with autocratic rulers contending with rising = democracy=20 movements.

The State Department = recently began=20 Farsi and Arabic-language Twitter feeds to better reach those young=20 demonstrators, sending out key statements from the president and = administration=20 officials. The Arabic feed, launched Feb. 9, has more than 1,200 = followers; the=20 Farsi feed, which began four days later, has nearly 3,500.

"What has become clear = during Egypt=20 and Tunisia is that you need to communicate in the space where people = are=20 talking," said Tommy Vietor, the National Security Council spokesman.=20

Obama did not comment = directly on the=20 execution threat, made by fist-pumping lawmakers a day after = anti-government=20 demonstrators defied an official ban on protests.

But he said he found it = "ironic" that=20 Iran's government is "pretending to celebrate what happened in Egypt = when, in=20 fact, they have acted in direct contrast to what happened in Egypt by = gunning=20 down and beating people who were trying to express themselves = peacefully."=20

The mood on Tehran's = streets has=20 changed dramatically since Monday's demonstration, when two people were = killed,=20 according to the semiofficial Fars News Agency.

Although opposition Web = sites have=20 said the victims were protesters, government-backed entities assert that = the men=20 were members of a paramilitary organization and had been killed by the=20 opposition.

Kazem Jalali, a member = of the=20 National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the parliament, told = Fars=20 that "the efforts of the supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] were = focused on=20 trying to bring Mousavi and Karroubi back into the folds of the = revolution."=20

"But these persons have = purged=20 themselves from the system," he said. "The parliament demands the = strongest=20 punishment for Mousavi and Karroubi."

In his news conference, = Obama=20 continued to focus on the demonstrations underway and not on his = preferred=20 outcome, a tactic he adopted during the 18-day uprising in Egypt. =

Obama had more leverage = in Egypt,=20 where Mubarak had enjoyed American support and billions in U.S. aid = since=20 emerging from the military three decades ago to lead the country after = his=20 predecessor, Anwar Sadat, was assassinated. There was no such support or = funding=20 in Iran, where the 1979 revolution toppled the U.S.-backed shah and = ushered in=20 an Islamist government hostile to most American interests.

White House officials = say Obama's=20 caution stems from the same concern that guided his response in June = 2009: that=20 a clear U.S. call for regime change in Iran would allow President = Mahmoud=20 Ahmadinejad to cast the protest movement as a creation of Western = governments=20 and Israel.

Obama pointed to the = lack of=20 anti-U.S. sentiment in Tahrir Square during Egypt's uprising as evidence = that=20 allowing demonstrators to take the lead - without instructions or goals=20 announced from Washington - was the correct course to take.

On Tuesday, Ahmad = Khatami, an=20 influential Friday prayer leader appointed by Khamenei, said the = opposition=20 leaders were guilty of "moharebeh," a legal term in Shiite Islam that = means=20 "waging war against God." The crime carries the death penalty in Iran.=20

In theory, Iran's = judiciary would=20 decide whether to press the case, but the issue is likely to fall to = Khamenei,=20 who decides all important matters of state.

During the past year, = he effectively=20 prevented the arrests of Karroubi and Mousavi by offering them a path to = redemption if they admitted their mistakes and endorsed Iran's Islamist = system.=20

Their arrests would = escalate tensions=20 on Tehran's streets, where there have been no new protests since = Monday's=20 crackdown.

Speaking live on state = television,=20 Ahmadinejad said anti-government demonstrators and their leaders planned = to=20 tarnish the "brilliance" of the Iranian nation.

"The Iranian nation is = a shining=20 sun," Ahmadinejad said. "They threw some dust toward the sun. . . . They = should=20 know that the dust will certainly return into their own eyes." =

 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/= content/article/2011/02/15/AR2011021506096.html?hpid=3Dtopnews
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         &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ; =20 Middle East: Alert

         &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;      =20 sharing news on global affairs / oil / gas / = politics

         &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;  =20 Water shortages to force Mideast cooperation: study

        &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;     =20 Downstream territories such as Israel, Jordan and = Palestinian=20 territories were in the worst position.

GENEVA, Feb 10, 2011 (AFP) - A report for the = Swiss and=20 Swedish governments warned on Thursday that water shortages in the = Middle East=20 were so alarming that opposing camps in the region would have little = choice but=20 to cooperate.

Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey = called for=20 closer cooperation between Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the=20 Palestinians and Israel on managing increasingly scarce water resources, = arguing=20 that water could also be used to forge a "blue peace."

"The report comes to an alarming conclusion; = five of the=20 seven countries are experiencing a structural shortage and debit of most = of the=20 big rivers has declined by 50 to 90 percent between 1960," she told = journalists.=20

"In the future the main geopolitical resource in = the=20 Middle East will be water more than oil," she added, warning that it was = closely=20 tied to peace efforts.

The report by an Indian thinktank, Strategic = Foresight=20 Group, highlighted huge depletion of major rivers such as the Jordan and = Yarmouk=20 in the past half a century, the punctual depletion of the Euphrates by = drought=20 and the shrinkage of the Dead Sea to a small lake by 2050.

However, the report also acknowledged the = difference=20 between the countries, with upstream Turkey in a position to "influence=20 prospects of peace" despite the collapse of 1980s plan to pipe water to = Israel=20 and Gulf states.

Downstream territories such as Israel, Jordan = and=20 Palestinian territories were in the worst position with mounting clean = water=20 deficits of up to 500-700 million cubic metres each.

The report also argued that technical solutions = such as=20 desalination or wastewater recycling in Israel would ultimately have = limited=20 scope.

"Purely unilateral solutions will mainly work = for a decade=20 or so but Israel will have to look for external sources and regional = cooperation=20 beyond 2020 to ensure its water security," it said.

Swiss diplomats said they had already started to = lobby the=20 seven governments for a joint water cooperation council expanding on an = nascent=20 Turkish, Iraqi, Jordanian and Syrian effort, as well as other steps, = even if=20 they admitted that it would be challenging.

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm?= id=3DANA20110210T162759ZRBI20&l=3D162803110210&zawyaemailmarketin= g

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          =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;            = ;       =20
Massenbach's= = Recommendation  =20
 

         &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp; =20 Dissecting Japan's New Defense = Guidelines

While Tokyo's new defense = guidelines don't=20 revise its =E2=80=98non-nuclear principles=E2=80=99, lift its ban on = weapon and weapon=20 technology exports, amend its =E2=80=98pacifist constitution=E2=80=99, = or allow its soldiers to=20 execute the right to collective self-defense =E2=80=93 at least not yet = =E2=80=93 other=20 remarkable transformations are contained therein.

By Axel Berkofsky for ISN Insights=20

The December 2010 adoption of Tokyo's new = defense=20 guidelines - the so-called National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) = first=20 adopted in 1976 and subsequently updated in 1995 and 2004 - transform = Japan's=20 security and defense policies from 'basic' to 'flexible and dynamic', in = essence=20 meaning that Japan now reserves the right to upgrade its military = capabilities,=20 increasing its defense expenditures beyond one percent of GDP - a = self-imposed=20 limit that has served as a guiding principle of Japanese defense policy = for=20 decades.

For an allegedly 'pacifist' country equipped = with a=20 constitution that does not allow for the maintenance of armed forces, it = is=20 remarkable that Japan should now contribute to regional stability by = "increasing=20 the activity" of its defense hardware and "clearly demonstrating its = advanced=20 capabilities", according to the guidelines.

Although Tokyo will not (at least not yet) equip = itself=20 with 'real' offensive military power projection capabilities, the = defense=20 guidelines are clearly aimed at equipping Japan's military capabilities = to react=20 to crisis scenarios that go beyond the defense of Japanese territory on = the=20 Japanese 'mainland.'

In reaction, mainland China's policymakers = expressed=20 little concern for the possible implications of the defense guidelines = for=20 actual Japanese defense and security policies, instead stressing that = Japan's=20 warnings about China's military rise were misguided. The assertion that = "China's=20 military development and the lack of transparency are matters of = concern" was=20 dismissed as = "irresponsible" and=20 "totally groundless" by the state-controlled China Daily. To be = sure,=20 China's recent public announcement that = it would=20 speed up the development of an aircraft carrier fleet (to be deployed in = the=20 East China Sea) confirmed that Japan's concerns might be anything but = groundless=20 and irresponsible, at least from the standpoint of Japan's defense = planners.=20

The defense guidelines will be accompanied by a=20 re-structuring of Japan's armed forces, including a very noteworthy = upgrade of=20 the country's naval and coast guard capabilities. Until 2012, 21 new = patrol=20 ships and seven new reconnaissance jets will be added to the Japan Coast = Guard=20 fleet to be dispatched to where the (potential) 'action' is: the East = China Sea.=20

In addition, Japan's navy will increase the = number of its=20 AEGIS destroyers from four to six. AEGIS destroyers are equipped with=20 antimissile systems and are at least in theory able to shoot down = incoming North=20 Korean Nodong missiles aimed at downtown Tokyo in less than 10 minutes. = The=20 number of Japanese submarines will also be increased from 16 to 22, = while the=20 number of tanks will be reduced from 600 to 400.

All of this, however, will take place in times = of fiscal=20 austerity: Over the next three to four years the defense budget will be=20 decreased by five percent, raising doubts about the feasibility of parts = of this=20 envisioned military upgrade.

Weapons export ban remains in place - = for=20 now

Japan's self-imposed ban to export weapons and = weapons=20 technology will remain in place, although it was widely anticipated in = the=20 second half of 2010 that the government would officially abolish the ban = to=20 enable the domestic defense industry to join international weapons' = development=20 projects.

Since 1967, Japan has maintained a policy of = refusing to=20 export weapons or weapons technology, and until mid-December 2010, Tokyo = had=20 planned to lift that ban to allow Japanese defense contractors to export = weapons=20 and weapons technology that would be exclusively used in either UN = peacekeeping=20 and peace-enforcement missions or missions combating international = terrorism. In=20 the framework of such missions, Japanese defense contractors envisioned = joint=20 projects with counterparts in Australia, South Korea, the US and Europe. =

Days before the adoption of the defense = guidelines,=20 however, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan changed his mind due to = domestic=20 political considerations. The government's current (People's New Party = (PNP) and=20 former (Social Democratic Party, SDP) coalition partners are vehemently = opposed=20 to revising the export ban and threatened to block the government's = lawmaking=20 initiatives if the prime minister decided to scrap it.

However, the new guidelines do not exclude the = possibility=20 of revisiting the decision: "Measures to follow the international trend = of=20 defense equipment will be studied".

To be sure such an ambiguous approach stands for = everything that is wrong with the government's approach to defense and = security=20 issues, according to a Japanese scholar and security expert who wished = not to be=20 identified. "If the government wants to open new possibilities for = Japanese=20 companies to participate in international joint ventures, we should not = avoid a=20 clear political decision to change the principles themselves. It is time = to stop=20 deceiving the public and the opposition parties on defense", he told ISN = Insights. "The defense guidelines speak of exploring possibilities for = more=20 international joint ventures [...] How can we do that without addressing = the=20 issue of the three principles?"

To be sure, Japan's defense industry will = continue to=20 exert pressure on the government to abolish the ban and will continue to = collaborate with US defense contractors in the context of developing a = US-Japan=20 missile defense system, a de-facto violation of the ban since the early = 2000s.=20

=E2=80=A6 And not going nuclear = either=20

While the July 2010 draft defense guidelines = recommended=20 the revision of at least one so-called 'Non-Nuclear Principle', namely = the=20 introduction of US nuclear weapons into Japan in the case of a military=20 emergency, the final version makes no such mention.

There are three 'Non-Nuclear Principles', = outlined in a late 1960s=20 parliamentary resolution that states that Japan shall = neither 1.=20 possess nor 2. manufacture nuclear weapons nor shall it 3. permit their=20 introduction into Japanese territory.

To be sure, Japan has over the decades = officially allowed=20 the violation of one of the 'Non-Nuclear Principles.' Since the late = 1960s and=20 throughout the Cold War, US Navy ships equipped with nuclear weapons = visited=20 Japanese ports, a fact officially acknowledged by a=20 government-nominated Ministry of Foreign Affairs panel in March 2010.=20

More Blanks

And there are more blanks in the guidelines, at = least as=20 far as the country's defense hawks are concerned: Neither constitutional = revision nor the right to collective self-defense make it into the = guidelines,=20 i.e. the right to defend soldiers from other countries in the framework = of=20 international missions.

To be sure, both are 'evergreen' topics on = Japan's=20 security policy agenda, and while there is wide agreement that = constitutional=20 revision - i.e. revising the constitution's Article 9 in order to = officially=20 allow Japan to maintain armed forces (the reason why Japan's soldiers = are=20 referred to as 'Self-Defense Forces') - will not make it anywhere near = the top=20 of the governing Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) policy agenda anytime = soon,=20 there is no practical need to change the government's interpretation of=20 collective self-defense.

Instead, Tokyo will continue to 'stretch' the = definition=20 of individual self-defense as it sees fit. The navy's refueling mission = in the=20 Indian Ocean (2001-2009), the army's operation in Iraq (2004-2006) and = the=20 navy's anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden off the Somali coast = were all=20 missions of 'individual' and not 'collective' self-defense as far as = Tokyo was=20 concerned. Indeed, Tokyo has explained that it is defending Japanese = national=20 security and territory in the Indian Ocean, southern Iraq and now = Somalia.=20

Collective self-defense through the back-door, = so to=20 speak.

Hawks knocking at the door? =

The Japanese government on the other hand might = exit=20 through the front door soon, in view of Kan's rapidly decreasing = popularity with=20 both the electorate and his own party insiders.

A possible frontrunner for the DPJ's leadership = and the=20 prime minister post is the party's current Secretary General Katsuya = Okada, who=20 has in the past presented himself much more assertively on defense and = security=20 issues, including temporary but official support to allow US warships to = introduce nuclear weapons into Japan in the case of military emergency.=20

Kan's job could be on the line very soon, = possibly in a=20 few weeks, should he not be able to get his coalition partners and parts = of the=20 political opposition to support budget bills for this fiscal year by the = end of=20 next month. At the center of the controversy - potentially leading to a = snap=20 general election in the weeks ahead - is Kan's plan to increase Japan's=20 consumption tax.

Until then - and most probably long after - = Japan will=20 continue to muddle through or "lie", as an official from Japan's = Ministry of=20 Foreign Affairs tells ISN Insights, selling its soldiers' contributions = to=20 international missions as 'individual self-defense', come what may.=20

Professor Axel Berkofsky is Gianni Mazzocchi = Fellow at the=20 University of Pavia, Italy and Senior Associate Research Fellow at the=20 Milan-based Istituto per Gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI).=20

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/IS= N-Insights/Detail?lng=3Den&id=3D126835&contextid734=3D126835&= contextid735=3D126833&tabid=3D126833126835 
 
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        =           =20 Ermittlungsaktionen gegen=20 "friedliche Islamisten" ist nun vollst=C3=A4ndig eingestellt mit=20 Schadenersatz
 
08.02.2011

Eine der bundesweit = gr=C3=B6=C3=9Ften=20 Ermittlungsaktionen gegen "friedliche Islamisten" ist nun = vollst=C3=A4ndig=20 eingestellt worden.

Sie endete mit dem knappen brieflichen = Hinweis der=20 M=C3=BCnchner Staatsanwaltschaft an die Betroffenen, ihnen stehe = Schadenersatz zu.=20

Bei den Verd=C3=A4chtigten handelte es sich um = F=C3=BChrungsfiguren der vom=20 Verfassungsschutz beobachteten Islamischen Gemeinschaft Milli = G=C3=B6r=C3=BCs (IGMG) und=20 der Islamischen Gemeinschaft in Deutschland (IGD). 2008 und 2009 war es = bei=20 IGMG-Generalsekret=C3=A4r Oguz =C3=9Cc=C3=BCnc=C3=BC und beim = Ex-IGD-Vorsitzenden Ibrahim El-Zayat=20 zu einer Serie von Hausdurchsuchungen gekommen. Dabei kam auch = Verm=C3=B6gen zu=20 Schaden, was im Fall vollst=C3=A4ndig eingestellter Ermittlungen = Ersatzanspr=C3=BCche=20 ausl=C3=B6st.

Vorgeworfen wurde den beiden Funktion=C3=A4ren = unter anderem die=20 Bildung einer kriminellen Vereinigung, Geldw=C3=A4sche, Betrug und = Veruntreuung=20 religi=C3=B6ser Spenden.

Innenminister Thomas de Maizi=C3=A8re = (CDU) lud daraufhin=20 sogar den von Milli G=C3=B6r=C3=BCs dominierten Islamrat aus der = Deutschen Islamkonferenz=20 aus. =C3=9Cc=C3=BCnc=C3=BC und El-Zayat wiederum wurden bei der = Islamkonferenz zu unerw=C3=BCnschten=20 Personen erkl=C3=A4rt.

http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/politik/article12476277= /Deutschland.html

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          &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;    =20 Fatale Vorliebe f=C3=BCr Milit=C3=A4rregime =

Die Neue Z=C3=BCrcher Zeitung hat = am 15. Februar=20 2011 in ihrer schweizerischen Ausgabe, am 16. Februar 2011 in der=20 internationalen Ausgabe und online den folgenden Artikel von Dr. Gerhard = Fulda=20 ver=C3=B6ffentlicht. Dr. Fulda, Mitglied des Vorstands der DAG, hatte = die =C3=A4gyptische=20 Revoution hautnah in Kairo miterlebt.

Die=20 NZZ hat seinen Text ohne R=C3=BCcksprache gek=C3=BCrzt. Diesem Eingriff = sind unter anderem=20 gegen Ende des Textes die beiden folgenden S=C3=A4tze zum Opfer=20 gefallen:
 
Wir=20 m=C3=BCssen nach L=C3=B6sungen suchen, die auch berechtigte israelische = Interessen=20 sch=C3=BCtzen.
Wir=20 d=C3=BCrfen nicht mehr alles akzeptieren, was Israel als berechtigte = Interessen=20 bezeichnet.

Fatale Vorliebe f=C3=BCr=20 Milit=C3=A4rregime

Der Westen=20 hat nicht nur in der arabischen Welt zu oft Milit=C3=A4rregime = unterst=C3=BCtzt. =C3=9Cberall=20 in Schwellenl=C3=A4ndern tat man so, als schl=C3=B6ssen sich = Stabilit=C3=A4t und Demokratie=20 gegenseitig aus. In Kairo hat eine Milit=C3=A4rf=C3=BChrung die Macht = =C3=BCbernommen, die f=C3=BCr=20 die Fehlentwicklungen der Vergangenheit selbst verantwortlich ist. Von = Gerhard=20 Fulda
Europa und=20 die USA haben nicht gut ausgesehen in ihrer Reaktion auf die = =C3=A4gyptische=20 Begeisterung f=C3=BCr die Demokratie. Sie waren =C3=BCberrascht, = zerrissen zwischen=20 eigenen Interessen und denen Israels, befangen in =C3=BCberholten = Denkmustern in=20 Bezug auf Milit=C3=A4rregime und gegen=C3=BCber islamisch orientierter = Politik. Die ersten=20 Reaktionen auf den R=C3=BCckzug Mubaraks lassen nicht erkennen, dass der = Westen aus=20 seinen Fehlern bereits gelernt h=C3=A4tte. Stabilit=C3=A4t ist seit = Jahrzehnten das=20 Stichwort, dem in der westlichen Aussenpolitik fast alle anderen = Kategorien=20 politischer Bewertung untergeordnet wurden. Hinter diesem Schlagwort = liessen=20 sich ganz andere Interessen trefflich verstecken.
 
Antiislamischer Impuls
 
Politische=20 Priorit=C3=A4ten standen der F=C3=B6rderung demokratischer und = menschenrechtlicher=20 Entwicklungen oft im Wege. =C3=84gypten ist daf=C3=BCr ein markantes = Beispiel. Unter=20 Nasser hat der Westen nicht auf dessen Polizei geschaut, zuerst, weil = man das=20 Land nicht an den Ostblock verlieren, dann, weil man es wieder = zur=C3=BCckholen=20 wollte. Unter Sadat und Mubarak waren deren Beziehungen zu Israel = wichtiger als=20 Folter, fehlende Demokratie und soziale Fehlentwicklungen. In den = letzten zehn=20 Jahren ist dann oft ein antiislamischer Impuls wirksam geworden, der dem = Polizeistaat die Unterdr=C3=BCckung der Muslimbr=C3=BCder dankte. =
 
In=20 Schwellenl=C3=A4ndern konnte man im Gespr=C3=A4ch mit = Repr=C3=A4sentanten der europ=C3=A4ischen=20 Exportindustrie den Eindruck gewinnen, Demokratie und Stabilit=C3=A4t = schl=C3=B6ssen sich=20 gegenseitig aus. Das hing mit der allgegenw=C3=A4rtigen Korruption = zusammen. Bei=20 einem Regierungswechsel musste herausgefunden werden, wer f=C3=BCr = welche=20 Entscheidungen besonderer Aufmerksamkeit bedurfte. Unter diesem = Blickwinkel=20 konnte es so weit kommen, dass eine Wende zur Demokratie die = Herabstufung im=20 Kredit-Ranking nach sich zog. Dabei wurde vergessen, dass demokratische=20 Regierungswechsel Druck abbauen, ehe das ganze System mit viel = gr=C3=B6sserem=20 wirtschaftlichem Schaden explodiert.
 
Jetzt dr=C3=A4ngt=20 uns das demokratische Aufbegehren in der arabischen Welt zum Umdenken. = Der=20 Westen hat dort zu wichtige Interessen, als dass er weiterhin dazu = Anlass geben=20 sollte, dass man ihm das Reden mit gespaltener Zunge vorwerfen kann. Die = Aussenministerien Europas brauchen nicht nur Demokratiebeauftragte, = sondern auch=20 demokratiewissenschaftliche Beir=C3=A4te. An die Stelle des =C2=ABWeiter = so=C2=BB sollten=20 koh=C3=A4rente Konzepte treten, mit denen die komplexen Themen = Milit=C3=A4rherrschaft,=20 Wirtschaft, Israel, Islam und eben Demokratie zusammengef=C3=BChrt = werden.=20
Die=20 europ=C3=A4ische Politik hat sich mit den USA auf das Stichwort = =C2=ABgeordneter =C3=9Cbergang=20 unter Federf=C3=BChrung des Milit=C3=A4rs=C2=BB geeinigt. Das beruhte = jedoch zum Teil auf einer=20 Fehleinsch=C3=A4tzung der bisherigen Rolle des =C3=A4gyptischen = Milit=C3=A4rs. Sp=C3=A4testens seit=20 der Behauptung des neuen Vizepr=C3=A4sidenten, =C3=84gypten sei nicht = reif f=C3=BCr die=20 Demokratie, wissen wir, dass Teile der Milit=C3=A4rf=C3=BChrung dort = nicht reif sind f=C3=BCr=20 die Demokratie. Dieses Missverst=C3=A4ndnis beruht auch auf dem Wissen, = dass =C3=84gypter=20 ihr Milit=C3=A4r seit Nasser fast verehrt haben.
 
Es war die=20 einzige Armee, die je gegen Israel eine Schlacht gewonnen hatte. = Offizier werden=20 zu k=C3=B6nnen, wurde zum wichtigsten Berufsziel, das sich jedoch nur = den besten=20 Schulabg=C3=A4ngern er=C3=B6ffnete. Der permanente Ausnahmezustand, die = Bespitzelung, die=20 Brutalit=C3=A4t der Sicherheitsorgane, die Unterdr=C3=BCckung der = Muslimbr=C3=BCder, die=20 Ausschaltung jeglicher Opposition, die Manipulation der Wahlergebnisse = =E2=80=93 alles=20 wurde nur der Polizei angelastet. Die gute Armee gegen die b=C3=B6se = Polizei, dies=20 Stereotyp wirkte noch nach in der Begr=C3=BCssung der Panzer auf dem = Tahrir-Platz.=20
 
Arabische=20 Demokratie
 
Aber auch=20 Polizei und Geheimdienste wurden in Wirklichkeit von aus dem = Milit=C3=A4r stammenden=20 Gener=C3=A4len geleitet. Alle Pr=C3=A4sidenten bisher waren = Milit=C3=A4rs. Die Ausgestaltung=20 der Politik, auch die Entscheidungen =C3=BCber den Wegfall = rechtsstaatlicher=20 Kontrollen f=C3=BCr die Polizei, wurde letztlich aus dem = milit=C3=A4rischen Apparat=20 bewirkt. Die Verantwortung f=C3=BCr Jahrzehnte verfehlter Politik liegt = beim Milit=C3=A4r.=20 Und trotzdem hat jetzt das Milit=C3=A4r gegen sich selbst geputscht. = Denn die Parolen=20 der Demonstranten waren eindeutig: Mubarak stand f=C3=BCr das = milit=C3=A4rische System,=20 Mubarak sollte weg und mit ihm =E2=80=93 immer wieder lautstark = gefordert =E2=80=93 =C2=ABan-Nizam=C2=BB,=20 das System. Deshalb brannte die Parteizentrale, deshalb konnten die=20 Protestierenden in der Ernennung Suleimans keinen Wandel erkennen. Die = Liebe zum=20 Milit=C3=A4r hat Risse bekommen.
 
=C3=84usserungen=20 an der M=C3=BCnchner Sicherheitskonferenz liessen bereits = bef=C3=BCrchten, dass die=20 Glaubw=C3=BCrdigkeit westlicher Rufe nach Demokratie erneut Schaden = nehmen w=C3=BCrde =E2=80=93=20 wie beim Sturz Mossadeghs 1953 in Iran, wie in Algerien 1992, wie 2006 = beim=20 Wahlsieg der Hamas. Es verwundert nicht, dass die israelische Regierung = Mubarak=20 unbedingt halten wollte. Nat=C3=BCrlich k=C3=B6nnte die israelische = Politik gegen=C3=BCber den=20 Pal=C3=A4stinensern im Gazastreifen nicht wie bisher fortgesetzt werden, = wenn in=20 Kairo eine Regierung unter Beteiligung der Muslimbr=C3=BCder = gew=C3=A4hlt w=C3=BCrde. Dabei=20 haben die Muslimbr=C3=BCder in Kairo schon l=C3=A4ngst erkl=C3=A4rt, sie = w=C3=BCrden nicht=20 versuchen, die Beziehungen zu Israel abzubrechen. Die Muslimbr=C3=BCder = =C3=84gyptens=20 haben den Terror der Kaida als Perversion des Islam bezeichnet. Doch der = Westen=20 scheint zu glauben, ihre Regierungsbeteiligung in =C3=84gypten werde = noch=20 unertr=C3=A4glicher sein als das Regime Mubaraks.
 
Heute m=C3=BCssen=20 wir eingestehen: Die =C3=A4gyptische Bev=C3=B6lkerung hat dem Westen = eine Lektion in=20 Sachen Demokratie erteilt. Wir m=C3=BCssen aufh=C3=B6ren, = Stabilit=C3=A4t nur von=20 Milit=C3=A4rregierungen zu erwarten. Wir m=C3=BCssen demokratisch = zustande gekommene=20 Wahlergebnisse auch dann respektieren, wenn Muslime Muslime w=C3=A4hlen. = Wir d=C3=BCrfen=20 nicht weiterhin alle unter einer islamischen Fahne antretenden Politiker = als=20 Extremisten betrachten.
 
Gerhard Fulda ist ehemaliger deutscher=20 Botschafter.

Link=20 zum Artikel in der NZZ.  

https://www.d-a-g.de/index.php?option=3Dcom_content&task=3Dv= iew&id=3D592&Itemid=3D1 

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see our letter on: =20 http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html
 
Wir w=C3=BCnschen Ihnen ein = angenehmes=20 Wochenende. Ihr Team.
 
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Udo=20 von Massenbach   -   B=C3=A4rbel = Freudenberg-Pilster  =20 -   J=C3=B6rg=20 Barandat
        &nbs= p;            = ;            =           =20
UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de  =20 Mail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de  
          &nbs= p;           =20 JoergBarandat@yahoo.de
 
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