Reply-To: "Udo von Massenbach" <Massenbach-Berlin@t-online.de>
From: "Udo von Massenbach" <Massenbach-Berlin@t-online.de>
Subject: Massenbach-Letter: NEWS  27/01/12
Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2012 21:02:58 +0100
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Guten Morgen.

Asia Times: Saudi Arabia pivots toward Asia=20
zawya/afp: India says still buying Iran oil, despite new sanctions =
(attachment)

SZ-online: Wulff-Glaeseker-Schmidt-Mronz-Westerwelle                     =
              =20

Massenbach  =20
                   Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
By George Friedman


The United States reportedly sent a letter to Iran via multiple =
intermediaries last week warning Tehran that any attempt to close the =
Strait of Hormuz constituted a red line for Washington. The same week, a =
chemist associated with Iran's nuclear program was killed in Tehran. In =
Ankara, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani met with Turkish =
officials and has been floating hints of flexibility in negotiations =
over Iran's nuclear program.

This week, a routine rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers is taking place =
in the Middle East, with the potential for three carrier strike groups =
to be on station in the U.S. Fifth Fleet's area of operations and a =
fourth carrier strike group based in Japan about a week's transit from =
the region. Next week, Gen. Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint =
Chiefs of Staff, will travel to Israel to meet with senior Israeli =
officials. And Iran is scheduling another set of war games in the =
Persian Gulf for February that will focus on the Islamic Revolutionary =
Guard Corps' irregular tactics for closing the Strait of Hormuz.

While tensions are escalating in the Persian Gulf, the financial crisis =
in Europe has continued, with downgrades in France's credit rating the =
latest blow. Meanwhile, China continued its struggle to maintain exports =
in the face of economic weakness among its major customers while =
inflation continued to increase the cost of Chinese exports.

Fundamental changes in how Europe and China work and their long-term =
consequences represent the major systemic shifts in the international =
system. In the more immediate future, however, the U.S.-Iranian dynamic =
has the most serious potential consequences for the world.

The U.S.-Iranian Dynamic

The increasing tensions in the region are not unexpected. As we have =
argued for some time, the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the subsequent =
decision to withdraw created a massive power vacuum in Iraq that Iran =
needed -- and was able -- to fill. Iran and Iraq fought a brutal war in =
the 1980s that caused about 1 million Iranian casualties, and Iran's =
fundamental national interest is assuring that no Iraqi regime able to =
threaten Iranian national security re-emerges. The U.S. invasion and =
withdrawal from Iraq provided Iran an opportunity to secure its western =
frontier, one it could not pass on.

If Iran does come to have a dominant influence in Iraq -- and I don't =
mean Iran turning Iraq into a satellite -- several things follow. Most =
important, the status of the Arabian Peninsula is subject to change. On =
paper, Iran has the most substantial conventional military force of any =
nation in the Persian Gulf. Absent outside players, power on paper is =
not insignificant. While technologically sophisticated, the military =
strength of the Arabian Peninsula nations on paper is much smaller, and =
they lack the Iranian military's ideologically committed manpower.

But Iran's direct military power is more the backdrop than the main =
engine of Iranian power. It is the strength of Tehran's covert =
capabilities and influence that makes Iran significant. Iran's covert =
intelligence capability is quite good. It has spent decades building =
political alliances by a range of means, and not only by nefarious =
methods. The Iranians have worked among the Shia, but not exclusively =
so; they have built a network of influence among a range of classes and =
religious and ethnic groups. And they have systematically built =
alliances and relationships with significant figures to counter overt =
U.S. power. With U.S. military power departing Iraq, Iran's =
relationships become all the more valuable.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces has had a profound psychological impact on =
the political elites of the Persian Gulf. Since the decline of British =
power after World War II, the United States has been the guarantor of =
the Arabian Peninsula's elites and therefore of the flow of oil from the =
region. The foundation of that guarantee has been military power, as =
seen in the response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The United =
States still has substantial military power in the Persian Gulf, and its =
air and naval forces could likely cope with any overt provocation by =
Iran.

But that's not how the Iranians operate. For all their rhetoric, they =
are cautious in their policies. This does not mean they are passive. It =
simply means that they avoid high-risk moves. They will rely on their =
covert capabilities and relationships. Those relationships now exist in =
an environment in which many reasonable Arab leaders see a shift in the =
balance of power, with the United States growing weaker and less =
predictable in the region and Iran becoming stronger. This provides =
fertile soil for Iranian allies to pressure regional regimes into =
accommodations with Iran.

The Syrian Angle

Events in Syria compound this situation. The purported imminent collapse =
of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria has proved less =
imminent than many in the West imagined. At the same time, the isolation =
of the al Assad regime by the West -- and more important, by other Arab =
countries -- has created a situation where the regime is more dependent =
than ever on Iran.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------

Should the al Assad regime -- or the Syrian regime without al Assad -- =
survive, Iran would therefore enjoy tremendous influence with Syria, as =
well as with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The current course in Iraq coupled =
with the survival of an Alawite regime in Syria would create an Iranian =
sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to the =
Mediterranean. This would represent a fundamental shift in the regional =
balance of power and probably would redefine Iranian relations with the =
Arabian Peninsula. This is obviously in Iran's interest. It is not in =
the interests of the United States, however.

The United States has sought to head this off via a twofold response. =
Clandestinely, it has engaged in an active campaign of sabotage and =
assassination targeting Iran's nuclear efforts. Publicly, it has created =
a sanctions regime against Iran, most recently targeting Iran's oil =
exports. However, the latter effort faces many challenges.

Japan, the No. 2 buyer of Iranian crude, has pledged its support but has =
not outlined concrete plans to reduce its purchases. The Chinese and =
Indians -- Iran's No. 1 and 3 buyers of crude, respectively -- will =
continue to buy from Iran despite increased U.S. pressure. In spite of =
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's visit last week, the Chinese =
are not prepared to impose sanctions, and the Russians are not likely to =
enforce sanctions even if they agreed to them. Turkey is unwilling to =
create a confrontation with Iran and is trying to remain a vital trade =
conduit for the Iranians regardless of sanctions. At the same time, =
while the Europeans seem prepared to participate in harder-hitting =
sanctions on Iranian oil, they already have delayed action on these =
sanctions and certainly are in no position politically or otherwise to =
participate in military action. The European economic crisis is at root =
a political crisis, so even if the Europeans could add significant =
military weight, which they generally lack, concerted action of any sort =
is unlikely.

Neither, for that matter, does the United States have the ability to do =
much militarily. Invading Iran is out of the question. The mountainous =
geography of Iran, a nation of about 70 million people, makes direct =
occupation impossible given available American forces.

Air operations against Iran are an option, but they could not be =
confined to nuclear facilities. Iran still doesn't have nuclear weapons, =
and while nuclear weapons would compound the strategic problem, the =
problem would still exist without them. The center of gravity of Iran's =
power is the relative strength of its conventional forces in the region. =
Absent those, Iran would be less capable of wielding covert power, as =
the psychological matrix would shift.

An air campaign against Iran's conventional forces would play to =
American military strengths, but it has two problems. First, it would be =
an extended campaign, one lasting months. Iran's capabilities are large =
and dispersed, and as seen in Desert Storm and Kosovo against weaker =
opponents, such operations take a long time and are not guaranteed to be =
effective. Second, the Iranians have counters. One, of course, is the =
Strait of Hormuz. The second is the use of its special operations forces =
and allies in and out of the region to conduct terrorist attacks. An =
extended air campaign coupled with terrorist attacks could increase =
distrust of American power rather than increase it among U.S. allies, to =
say nothing of the question of whether Washington could sustain =
political support in a coalition or within the United States itself.

The Covert Option

The United States and Israel both have covert options as well. They have =
networks of influence in the region and highly capable covert forces, =
which they have said publicly that they would use to limit Iran's =
acquisition of nuclear weapons without resorting to overt force. We =
assume, though we lack evidence, that the assassination of the Iranian =
chemist associated with the country's nuclear program last week was =
either a U.S. or Israeli operation or some combination of the two. Not =
only did it eliminate a scientist, it also bred insecurity and morale =
problems among those working on the program. It also signaled the region =
that the United States and Israel have options inside Iran.

The U.S. desire to support an Iranian anti-government movement generally =
has failed. Tehran showed in 2009 that it could suppress demonstrations, =
and it was obvious that the demonstrators did not have the widespread =
support needed to overcome such repression. Though the United States has =
sought to support internal dissidents in Iran since 1979, it has not =
succeeded in producing a meaningful threat to the clerical regime. =
Therefore, covert operations are being aimed directly at the nuclear =
program with the hope that successes there might ripple through other, =
more immediately significant sectors.

As we have long argued, the Iranians already have a "nuclear option," =
namely, the prospect of blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which =
roughly 35 percent of seaborne crude and 20 percent of the world's =
traded oil passes daily. Doing so would hurt them, too, of course. But =
failing to deter an air or covert campaign, they might choose to close =
off the strait. Temporarily disrupting the flow of oil, even =
intermittently, could rapidly create a global economic crisis given the =
fragility of the world economy.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------

The United States does not want to see that. Washington will be =
extremely cautious in its actions unless it can act with a high degree =
of assurance that it can prevent such a disruption, something difficult =
to guarantee. It also will restrain Israel, which might have the ability =
to strike at a few nuclear facilities but lacks the force to completely =
eliminate the program much less target Iran's conventional capability =
and manage the consequences of that strike in the Strait of Hormuz. Only =
the United States could do all that, and given the possible =
consequences, it will be loathe to attempt it.

The United States continues, therefore, with sanctions and covert =
actions while Iran continues building its covert power in Iraq and in =
the region. Each will try to convince the region that its power will be =
supreme in a year. The region is skeptical of both, but will have to =
live with one of the two, or with an ongoing test of wills -- an =
unnerving prospect. Each side is seeking to magnify its power for =
psychological effect without crossing a red line that prompts the other =
to take extreme measures. Iran signals its willingness to attempt to =
close Hormuz and its development of nuclear weapons, but it doesn't =
cross the line to actually closing the strait or detonating a nuclear =
device. The United States pressures Iran and moves forces around, but it =
doesn't cross the red line of commencing military actions. Thus, each =
avoids triggering unacceptable actions by the other.

The problem for the United States is that the status quo ultimately =
works against it. If al Assad survives and if the situation in Iraq =
proceeds as it has been proceeding, then Iran is creating a reality that =
will define the region. The United States does not have a broad and =
effective coalition, and certainly not one that would rally in the event =
of war. It has only Israel, and Israel is as uneasy with direct military =
action as the United States is. It does not want to see a failed attack =
and it does not want to see more instability in the Arab world. For all =
its rhetoric, Israel has a weak hand to play. The only virtue of the =
American hand is that it is stronger -- but only relatively speaking.

For the United States, preventing the expansion of an Iranian sphere of =
influence is a primary concern. Iraq is going to be a difficult arena to =
stop Iran's expansion. Syria therefore is key at present. Al Assad =
appears weak, and his replacement by a Sunni government would limit -- =
but not destroy -- any Iranian sphere of influence. It would be a =
reversal for Iran, and the United States badly needs to apply one. But =
the problem is that the United States cannot be seen as the direct agent =
of regime change in Syria, and al Assad is not as weak as has been =
claimed. Even so, Syria is where the United States can work to block =
Iran without crossing Iran's red lines.

The normal outcome of a situation like this one, in which neither Iran =
nor the United States can afford to cross the other's red lines since =
the consequences would be too great for each, would be some sort of =
negotiation toward a longer-term accommodation. Ideology aside -- and =
the United States negotiating with the "Axis of Evil" or Iran with the =
"Great Satan" would be tough sells to their respective domestic =
audiences -- the problem with this is that it is difficult to see what =
each has to offer the other. What Iran wants -- a dominant position in =
the region and a redefinition of how oil revenues are allocated and =
distributed -- would make the United States dependent on Iran. What the =
United States wants -- an Iran that does not build a sphere of influence =
but instead remains within its borders -- would cost Iran a historic =
opportunity to assert its longstanding claims.

We find ourselves in a situation in which neither side wants to force =
the other into extreme steps and neither side is in a position to enter =
into broader accommodations. And that's what makes the situation =
dangerous. When fundamental issues are at stake, each side is in a =
position to profoundly harm the other if pressed, and neither side is in =
a position to negotiate a broad settlement, a long game of chess ensues. =
And in that game of chess, the possibilities of miscalculation, of a =
bluff that the other side mistakes for an action, are very real.

Europe and China are redefining the way the world works. But kingdoms =
run on oil, as someone once said, and a lot of oil comes through Hormuz. =
Iran may or may not be able to close the strait, and that reshapes =
Europe and China. The New Year thus begins where we expected: at the =
Strait of Hormuz.


This analysis originally appeared on Stratfor.com.

Page Printed from: =
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/17/iran_the_us_and_the_str=
ait_of_hormuz_crisis_99847-full.html at January 17, 2012 - 10:10:10 AM =
CST =20

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                                                                         =
                                    Social Policy=20
                                                                         =
                                                         =20
Freudenberg-Pilster                  =
Wulff-Glaeseker-Schmidt-Mronz-Westerwelle
  =20
Korruptionsvorwurf gegen Wulffs Partyplaner=20
Manfred Schmidt, "Sozialarbeiter" der deutschen Elite
20.01.2012, 13:23

Von Thorsten Denkler, Berlin

Aus dem Aff=C3=A4ren-Dickicht des Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten lugt immer =
wieder ein Mann hervor: Manfred Schmidt. Er ist der Partyk=C3=B6nig =
f=C3=BCr die politische und wirtschaftliche Elite des Landes. Jetzt ist =
er wegen Bestechungsverdachts ins Visier der Staatsanwaltschaft geraten. =
Einer seiner engsten Gesch=C3=A4ftspartner: Michael Mronz, der Mann von =
Au=C3=9Fenminister Guido Westerwelle.

Er sei ein "Sozialarbeiter auf anderem Level", hat er mal =C3=BCber sich =
selbst gesagt. Ein Menschenfischer sei er, sagen jene, die ihn gut =
kennen. Sie meinen es nicht despektierlich. Eher anerkennend. Gemeint =
ist: Manfred Schmidt, Deutschlands Partyk=C3=B6nig f=C3=BCr die =
politische und wirtschaftliche Elite des Landes.

Wo er einl=C3=A4dt, da kommen sie alle. Christian Wulff, Guido =
Westerwelle, RWE-Chef J=C3=BCrgen Grossmann, G=C3=BCnther Oettinger, Cem =
=C3=96zdemir, Peer Steinbr=C3=BCck. Die Liste lie=C3=9Fe sich beliebig =
fortsetzen. Schmidt kennt sie alle, alle kennen ihn. Partei- und =
branchen=C3=BCbergreifend. Mehr als 20.000 Kontakte soll er in seiner =
Datenbank haben. Wer die private Handynummer eines A-Prominenten in =
Deutschland sucht - Manfred Schmidt hat sie. Auch die von =
Bundespr=C3=A4sident Christian Wulff und dessen Ex-Sprecher Olaf =
Glaeseker.

Nach Wulffs gl=C3=BCcklicher Wahl zum Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten lud Schmidt =
das frisch gek=C3=BCrte Staatsoberhaupt und seine Gefolgschaft zur =
Siegesfeier in seine Nobelresidenz am Pariser Platz. Mit Blick auf das =
Brandenburger Tor wurde auf eine gro=C3=9Fe Zukunft angesto=C3=9Fen.

Von Maschmeyer bis R=C3=B6sler

Jetzt steht Schmidt unter Bestechungsverdacht. Schmidt soll Glaeseker =
einen kostenlosen Urlaub in seiner spanischer Finca erm=C3=B6glicht =
haben. Und zwar im Gegenzug daf=C3=BCr, dass Glaeseker sich =
pers=C3=B6nlich daf=C3=BCr eingesetzt haben soll, Schmidts Veranstaltung =
"Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog" zu einem Erfolg zu machen. Am Donnerstag hat die =
Staatsanwaltschaft Hannover Immobilien von Schmidt in Wunstorf bei =
Hannover, Berlin und der Schweiz sowie die Privatr=C3=A4ume von =
Glaeseker durchsuchen lassen.

Der Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog (Untertitel: "Zwei L=C3=A4nder - ein Abend") =
geh=C3=B6rte zu den Glanzlichtern in Schmidts Programm. Zuletzt am 11. =
Dezember 2009 im Terminal C des Flughafens Hannover. Schirmherren der =
Veranstaltung: Christian Wulff, damals Ministerpr=C3=A4sident in =
Niedersachen, und dessen baden-w=C3=BCrttembergischer Amtskollege =
G=C3=BCnther Oettinger, heute Energiekommissar in Br=C3=BCssel. Wulff =
lobte das Projekt damals mit den Worten: "Der Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog steht =
f=C3=BCr gegenseitige Wertsch=C3=A4tzung, f=C3=BCr miteinander statt =
gegeneinander."

Auf der Teilnehmerliste stand das Who is Who der hannoverschen =
Maschsee-Connection: Wulffs Freund und AWD-Gr=C3=BCnder Carsten =
Maschmeyer, Ex-Air-Berlin-Chef Joachim Hunold, mit dem Wulff durch die =
Upgrade-Aff=C3=A4re verbunden bleiben sollte. Martin Winterkorn f=C3=BCr =
VW und Michael Macht f=C3=BCr Porsche. Der heutige FDP-Chef Philipp =
R=C3=B6sler schaute als damaliger Bundesgesundheitsminister vorbei und =
auch TUI-Chef Michael Frenzel war dabei.


685.000 Euro Einnahmen


Die Veranstaltung war ein lohnendes Gesch=C3=A4ft - auch f=C3=BCr =
Schmidt. Angeblich soll er von den Sponsoren 685.000 Euro eingenommen, =
die Sause aber nur 300.000 Euro gekostet haben.

Billiger wurde es auch deshalb, weil Olaf Glaeseker offenbar f=C3=BCr =
praktische Hilfe sorgte. Er soll sich h=C3=B6chstpers=C3=B6nlich um =
einen Teil des Servicepersonals zur Bewirtung der knapp 900 G=C3=A4ste =
gek=C3=BCmmert haben. Ein paar pers=C3=B6nliche Anrufe bei der =
landeseigenen Medizinischen Hochschule Hannover (MMH) sollen gereicht =
haben.

Die MHH verf=C3=BCgt =C3=BCber ein hauseigenes Veranstaltungsmangement. =
Im Glauben, es handele sich um eine Veranstaltung des Landes =
Niedersachen, schickte sie nach eigenen Angaben 44 studentische =
Hilfskr=C3=A4fte, die daf=C3=BCr sorgten, das Politiker und Unternehmer =
umsorgt wurden. Ein Sprecher der MHH best=C3=A4tigte der SZ einen =
entsprechenden Bericht der Neuen Presse.

Zur Begr=C3=BCndung hie=C3=9F es auch, in Glaeseker habe =
schlie=C3=9Flich die rechte Hand des Ministerpr=C3=A4sidenten um Hilfe =
gebeten. Stutzig sei die Hochschule erst geworden, als die Staatskanzlei =
sich geweigert habe, die Rechnung =C3=BCber knapp 5000 Euro zu bezahlen =
und in Medienberichten Manfred Schmidt als allein Verantwortlicher =
genannt worden sei.

Woran der zweite "L=C3=A4nderdialog" scheiterte

Kurz vor Weihnachten 2011 hatte Bundespr=C3=A4sident Wulff seinen =
Sprecher Glaeseker ohne Angabe von Gr=C3=BCnden =C3=BCberraschend =
entlassen. Es wird angenommen, dass Journalisten-Anfragen im =
Bundespr=C3=A4sidialamt zur Rolle Glaesekers bei der Organisation des =
Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialogs den Sprecher unter Druck gesetzt hatten. F=C3=BCr =
Wulff war Glaeseker nicht l=C3=A4nger haltbar.

Wenn jetzt das Gesch=C3=A4ftsgebaren von Manfred Schmidt in den =
Mittelpunkt r=C3=BCckt, k=C3=B6nnte das auch f=C3=BCr andere ein Grund =
sein, =C3=BCber ihre Gesch=C3=A4ftsbeziehungen mit Schmidt nachzudenken. =
Etwa der Lebensgef=C3=A4hrte von Au=C3=9Fenminister Guido Westerwelle. =
Der Sporteventmanager Michael Mronz hat nach Recherchen der SZ seit 2009 =
engen Kontakt zu Schmidt.

Beide hatten nach dem Vorbild des Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialoges einen =
"L=C3=A4nderdialog" zwischen Bayern und Nordrhein-Westfalen ins Leben =
rufen wollen. Die Party sollte am 9. M=C3=A4rz 2010 im D=C3=BCsseldorfer =
Flughafen stattfinden. Schirmherren: die Ministerpr=C3=A4sidenten Horst =
Seehofer und J=C3=BCrgen R=C3=BCttgers.

Verr=C3=A4terische Pr=C3=A4sentationsmappe

Alles war vorbereitet. Doch J=C3=BCrgen R=C3=BCttgers, gebeutelt von =
diversen Sponsoring-Aff=C3=A4ren, lie=C3=9F den Termin kurzfristig =
platzen. Wenige Wochen sp=C3=A4ter wurde er abgew=C3=A4hlt.

Westerwelles Mann Michael Mronz und Schmidt bestritten damals auf =
Anfrage der SZ, dass der L=C3=A4nderdialog ein gemeinsames Unternehmens =
gewesen sei. "Alleiniger Gastgeber und Veranstalter der Reihe =
'L=C3=A4nderdialog' ist die Manfred Schmidt Media S.L.", lie=C3=9F =
Schmidt schriftlich mitteilen. Michael Mronz erkl=C3=A4rte =C3=BCber =
einen Sprecher seines Unternehmens, der MMP Veranstaltungs- und =
Vermarktungs GmbH mit Sitz in K=C3=B6ln: "Nein, MMP war nicht Gastgeber =
des 'L=C3=A4nderdialoges Bayern Nordrhein-Westfalen'."

Die damalige Pr=C3=A4sentationsmappe f=C3=BCr potentielle Sponsoren, die =
der SZ vorliegt, legt Gegenteiliges nahe. Dort ist auf der Seite =
"Fakten" unter dem Stichwort "Gastgeber" zu lesen: "Manfred Schmidt =
Media S.L. und Michael Mronz Promotion."

Schmidts und Mronz' gemeinsames Projekt

Branchenkenner vermuten, dass Mronz die Prominenz seines Gatten Guido =
Westerwelle nutzen will, um sich neben dem Sporteventmarketing ein neues =
Standbein zu erarbeiten. Und zwar an der Nahtstelle von Politik und =
Wirtschaft. Manfred Schmidt hat ihm da einige T=C3=BCren ge=C3=B6ffnet. =
Einige Jahre organisierten Mronz und Schmidt gemeinsam die =
j=C3=A4hrliche Vodafone Night in der Berliner Edel-Unterkunft Hotel de =
Rome. Zuletzt, Anfang September 2011, zeichnete Mronz allein =
verantwortlich - Schmidt kam als Gast.

Auch hier versammeln sich gerne illustre G=C3=A4ste aus Politik, =
Wirtschaft, Sport und Showbusiness. Eiskunstl=C3=A4uferin Katarina Witt =
trifft auf Formel-1-Star Lewis Hamilton. Vizekanzler Philipp R=C3=B6sler =
auf Bl=C3=B6del-Comedian Oliver Pocher. Gerne gesehen sind =
Au=C3=9Fenminister Westerwelle (der im September jedoch nicht erschien), =
Bundesminister Dirk Niebel, Bundestagspr=C3=A4sident Norbert Lammert und =
Berlins Regierender B=C3=BCrgermeister Klaus Wowereit.

Wenn jetzt Manfred Schmidt wegen Bestechungsvorw=C3=BCrfen in das Visier =
der Staatsanwaltschaft ger=C3=A4t, k=C3=B6nnte die Aff=C3=A4re schnell =
gr=C3=B6=C3=9Fere Kreise des Politbetriebes erfassen. Vielleicht sollte =
sich Westerwelle von seinem Mann Mronz mal etwas genauer dessen =
Gesch=C3=A4ftskontakt zu Schmidt erkl=C3=A4ren lassen. Schaden kann das =
sicherlich nicht.

  URL: =
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/korruptionsvorwurf-gegen-partyplaner-s=
chmidt-sozialarbeiter-der-deutschen-elite-1.1262852

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                   Pr=C3=A4sident Wulff, gelebte staatspolitische =
Schizophrenie

Autor: Claus Christian Malzahn

Hier der Pr=C3=A4sident, da die Person. Das Dilemma kann nur Wulff =
aufl=C3=B6sen. Ein Staatsoberhaupt, dem die W=C3=BCrde des Sprechamtes =
entgleitet, braucht kein B=C3=BCrger dieser Republik.

Amigo-Urlaub und Gratisfl=C3=BCge. Vetternwirtschaft als Party-Event. =
Spezis und Spezialkredite. Bobbycars und kleine Karos. Sie k=C3=B6nnen =
das alles nicht mehr h=C3=B6ren? Ich auch nicht. Mit jedem neuen Detail, =
das in der Causa Wulff und Co. in den vergangenen Wochen freigelegt =
worden ist, steigt der Reflex zum Schulternzucken.=20

Man gew=C3=B6hnt sich schlie=C3=9Flich an alles, warum nicht auch an =
einen Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten, von dem inzwischen mehr als zwei Drittel =
der Deutschen annehmen, er k=C3=B6nne sein Amt kaum noch angemessen =
aus=C3=BCben? Wir haben uns ja auch an einen Au=C3=9Fenminister =
gew=C3=B6hnt, mit dem viel in Verbindung gebracht wird =E2=80=93 =
blo=C3=9F keine sichtbare Au=C3=9Fenpolitik.=20


Zuh=C3=B6rer sollen das Amt vom Inhaber unterscheiden=20

Christian Wulff ist nach wie vor im Amt und offenbar wild entschlossen, =
es zu bleiben. Die Tatsache, dass vor wenigen Tagen Beamte des =
nieders=C3=A4chsischen Landeskriminalamtes das Wohnhaus seines =
langj=C3=A4hrigen Vertrauten Olaf Glaeseker durchsuchten, um kistenweise =
vermeintliches Beweismaterial herauszutragen, hat daran nichts =
ge=C3=A4ndert. Es bestehe ein =E2=80=9Equalifizierter =
Anfangsverdacht=E2=80=9C auf Bestechlichkeit, hie=C3=9F es dazu am =
Donnerstag.=20

Am Tag darauf hielt der Bundespr=C3=A4sident eine rechtschaffene Rede =
zum 70. Jahrestag der Wannseekonferenz, einem der dunkelsten Daten der =
deutschen Geschichte. Allein dieser Zusammenhang ist eine moralische und =
politische Zumutung: Da steht der Pr=C3=A4sident und zugleich der Mann, =
der zwischen privaten Interessen und politischen Aufgaben nicht trennen =
wollte. Der Zuh=C3=B6rer aber soll das Amt nun aber vom Inhaber =
unterscheiden. Das wird nicht funktionieren.=20


Kalkulationen im politischen Berlin=20

W=C3=A4hrend sich nun auch Staatsanw=C3=A4lte eingehend mit dem =
anr=C3=BCchigen System Wulff-Glaseker besch=C3=A4ftigen, wird der =
Bundespr=C3=A4sident bei Reden, Reisen und Empf=C3=A4ngen den Eindruck =
erwecken, er h=C3=A4tte mit diesem Menschen namens Christian Wulff gar =
nichts zu tun. Es ginge sicher zu weit, dem Staatsoberhaupt zu =
unterstellen, dass er solche Termine bewusst einsetzen w=C3=BCrde, um =
von den Vorw=C3=BCrfen abzulenken. Aber es w=C3=A4re andererseits auch =
sehr naiv, zu glauben, dass solche Kalkulationen im politischen Berlin =
keine Rolle spielen w=C3=BCrden.=20

Schon Anfang des Jahres, als der Bundespr=C3=A4sident vor Mitarbeitern =
die Durchhalteparole ausgab, in einem Jahr sei das alles l=C3=A4ngst =
vergessen, wurden in der Union entsprechende Planspiele diskutiert. Wenn =
der angeschlagene Wulff im Februar erst einmal die Hinterbliebenen der =
Nazi-Mordopfer empfange, dann werde der nervt=C3=B6tende Bocksgesang =
seiner Kritiker wieder abschwellen. Erb=C3=A4rmlicher geht es kaum. =
Allein die Idee, dass man aus dem uns=C3=A4glichen Leid von =
Hinterbliebenen einen moralischen Palisadenzaun schnitzen k=C3=B6nne, an =
dem spitze Fragen zersplittern wie Pfeile, ist an Zynismus kaum zu =
=C3=BCberbieten.=20


Mit jedem Vorwurf schrumpft die Autorit=C3=A4t=20

Hier der Pr=C3=A4sident, da die Person: Nur Christian Wulff kann dieses =
Dilemma aufl=C3=B6sen =E2=80=93 indem er sein Amt zur Verf=C3=BCgung =
stellt. Oder er macht das Dilemma zum Prinzip seiner =
Pr=C3=A4sidentschaft. Das w=C3=A4re dann gelebte staatspolitische =
Schizophrenie. Denn mit jedem neuen Vorwurf schrumpft die Autorit=C3=A4t =
des Mannes, der das h=C3=B6chste Staatsamt bekleidet. Medien und =
Staatsanwaltschaft werden ihre Arbeit jedenfalls nicht einstellen, damit =
ein angeschlagener Bundespr=C3=A4sident aus parteitaktischen =
Gr=C3=BCnden im Amt gehalten werden kann.=20

  a.. 1 von 33 a.. zur=C3=BCck bl=C3=A4ttern a.. weiter =
bl=C3=A4tternKritik an Bundespr=C3=A4sident Christian Wulff

  =20
  Foto: Getty Images/Getty
   Chronik der Aff=C3=A4ren des Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten:

  =20
  Foto: REUTERS
   13. Dezember: Gegen Wulff taucht in der "Bild"-Zeitung erstmals der =
Verdacht auf, als Ministerpr=C3=A4sident von Niedersachsen den Landtag =
get=C3=A4uscht zu haben. Dabei geht es um einen privaten Kreditvertrag =
=C3=BCber 500.000 Euro zum Kauf eines Eigenheims, ...

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   ... den Wulff und seine Frau Bettina nach seinen Angaben mit der =
Ehefrau des Osnabr=C3=BCcker Unternehmers Egon Geerkens (l.) geschlossen =
hatten. Die Gr=C3=BCnen im Landtag hatten im Februar 2010 nach =
gesch=C3=A4ftlichen Beziehungen zwischen Wulff und dem Unternehmer =
gefragt, die Wulff damals verneinte. =C3=9Cber seinen Sprecher =
l=C3=A4sst der Bundespr=C3=A4sident mitteilen, die damalige Anfrage sei =
"korrekt beantwortet" worden.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   14. Dezember: Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) stellt sich =
erstmals hinter Wulff und spricht ihm "volles Vertrauen" aus. Zugleich =
werden neue Details =C3=BCber Kontakte Wulffs zum Unternehmerehepaar =
Geerkens bekannt. Wulff soll laut Medienberichten die Hilfe der Geerkens =
auch in Anspruch genommen, als er den Privat- durch einen Bankkredit =
abl=C3=B6ste. Zudem soll Egon Geerkens 2008 und 2009 insgesamt dreimal =
einer Wirtschaftsdelegation Wulffs angeh=C3=B6rt haben.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   15. Dezember: Wulff erkl=C3=A4rt offiziell sein Bedauern, dass durch =
den Privatkredit ein "falscher Eindruck" entstanden sei. Er betont =
zugleich, "in der Sache hatte und habe ich nichts zu verbergen".

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   16. Dezember: Gegen=C3=BCber dem "Spiegel" r=C3=A4umte Egon Geerkens =
ein, er sei an den Kreditverhandlungen ma=C3=9Fgeblich beteiligt =
gewesen. Wulffs und Geerkens' Anw=C3=A4lte bekr=C3=A4ftigten allerdings, =
der Kreditvertrag sei mit Geerkens' Frau Edith geschlossen worden.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   17. Dezember: Die Opposition versch=C3=A4rft ihre Kritik an Wulff und =
fordert ihn auf, alle offenen Fragen zu seiner Beziehung zum Unternehmer =
Geerkens zu kl=C3=A4ren. Verfassungsrechtler =C3=A4u=C3=9Fern die =
Vermutung, Wulff habe mit der Annahme des Kredits wom=C3=B6glich das =
Gesetz gebrochen.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   18. Dezember: Wulff weist indirekt erneut Kritik an seinem =
Privatkredit zur=C3=BCck. Dem Sender MDR Info sagt er, er k=C3=B6nne =
sein Handeln verantworten. Zugleich r=C3=A4umt der Bundespr=C3=A4sident =
insgesamt sechs Urlaube in Anwesen befreundeter Unternehmer ein. Aus =
einer =C3=BCber seine Bonner Kanzlei vorgelegten Liste geht hervor, dass =
er seit 2003 drei Mal einen Privaturlaub in H=C3=A4usern des =
Unternehmerpaares Geerkens verbrachte. 2008 und 2009 waren die Wulffs =
demnach au=C3=9Ferdem beim Hannoveraner Finanzunternehmer Wolf-Dieter =
Baumgartl in Italien und dem Unternehmer-Ehepaar Angela Solaro und =
Volker Meyer auf Norderney zu Gast.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   19. Dezember: Merkel gibt Wulff demonstrativ R=C3=BCckendeckung und =
spricht ihm erneut "vollstes Vertrauen" aus. Zugleich gibt es neue =
Enth=C3=BCllungen =C3=BCber private Geldgeber in Wulffs Freundeskreis.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   Laut "Bild" wurden Zeitungsanzeigen, mit denen im Herbst 2007 =
w=C3=A4hrend des nieders=C3=A4chsischen Landtagswahlkampfs f=C3=BCr das =
Christian-Wulff-Buch "Besser die Wahrheit" geworben wurde, von dessen =
Unternehmerfreund Carsten Maschmeyer bezahlt. Wulff l=C3=A4sst =C3=BCber =
seinen Anwalt erkl=C3=A4ren, ihm sei von den Zahlungen nichts bekannt =
gewesen.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   20. Dezember: Wulffs Anwalt betont, sein Mandant habe von den =
Zahlungen nichts gewusst. Die Sitzung des =C3=84ltestenrats im Landtag =
in Hannover, auf der eine gemeinsame Linie zur Kl=C3=A4rung der =
Vorw=C3=BCrfe gegen Wulff gefunden werden sollte, endet nach kurzer Zeit =
im Streit zwischen Regierung und Opposition.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   21. Dezember: "Welt Online" zitiert Wulffs Anwalt, dass Egon Geerkens =
an den Verhandlungen =C3=BCber den Kredit beteiligt gewesen sei. "Die =
Modalit=C3=A4ten wurden gemeinsam besprochen, das Darlehen von Frau =
Edith Geerkens gew=C3=A4hrt", hei=C3=9Ft es in einer Stellungnahme. =
Angesichts wachsenden Drucks auf Wulff fordern f=C3=BChrende Mitglieder =
aus CDU und FDP ein Ende der Debatte.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   22. Dezember: Der Bundespr=C3=A4sident nimmt erstmals pers=C3=B6nlich =
Stellung und entschuldigt sich =C3=B6ffentlich. Vor Journalisten sagt =
Wulff, er bedauere die Irritationen und nehme die Vorw=C3=BCrfe ernst. =
Jedoch habe er alle notwendigen Ausk=C3=BCnfte erteilt. Die B=C3=BCrger =
bittet er um Vertrauen f=C3=BCr seine k=C3=BCnftige Arbeit. Zuvor hatte =
Wulff seinen Sprecher und langj=C3=A4hrigen Vertrauten Olaf Glaeseker =
entlassen. "Der Spiegel" berichtet, Wulff habe den Kredit =E2=80=93 nach =
der Abl=C3=B6sung des Darlehens beim Unternehmerpaar Geerkens =E2=80=93 =
bei der BW-Bank zu auffallend g=C3=BCnstigen Konditionen erhalten.

  =20
  Foto: Getty Images
   27. Dezember: Ein Aufsichtsratsmitglied der BW-Bank fordert =
Aufkl=C3=A4rung =C3=BCber den Kredit, =C3=BCber den das Gremium laut =
einem Bericht der "Bild"-Zeitung nicht informiert war. Zuvor hatte die =
"Welt am Sonntag" berichtet, dass der neue Kredit zum =C3=BCblichen =
Zinssatz offenbar erst ab Januar 2012 beginnt.

  =20
  Foto: dapd
   30. Dezember: Der Staatsrechtler Hans Herbert von Arnim schreibt in =
einer Analyse, die der "Welt am Sonntag" vorliegt, er halte Ermittlungen =
gegen Wulff f=C3=BCr "unausweichlich".

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   1. Januar 2012: Wulff soll versucht haben, die Ver=C3=B6ffentlichung =
von Berichten =C3=BCber seinen Privatkredit zu verhindern. Die =
"Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung" schrieb, Wulff habe sich auf =
Diekmanns Mailbox dar=C3=BCber beschwert, dass "Bild" eine =
"unglaubliche" Geschichte =C3=BCber ihn plane. Der Pr=C3=A4sident habe =
den "endg=C3=BCltigen Bruch" mit dem Springer-Verlag angedroht, falls =
der Bericht tats=C3=A4chlich erscheine.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   2. Januar: Der Medienkonzern Axel Springer, hier "Bild"-Chef Diekmann =
(l.) und Vorstandsvorsitzender D=C3=B6pfner, best=C3=A4tigt den =
Drohanruf des Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   3. Januar: Die SPD erkl=C3=A4rt die politische Schonfrist f=C3=BCr =
Bundespr=C3=A4sident Christian Wulff f=C3=BCr beendet. "Wulff hatte drei =
Wochen Zeit die Vorw=C3=BCrfe zu entkr=C3=A4ften. Das ist ihm nicht =
gelungen", sagt Fraktionsgesch=C3=A4ftsf=C3=BChrer Thomas Oppermann. =
"Kein Bundespr=C3=A4sident steht =C3=BCber Recht und Gesetz. Das gilt =
auch f=C3=BCr die Pressefreiheit."

  =20
  Foto: dpa
   4. Januar: Wulff meldet sich in einem Fernseh-Interview zu Wort. Er =
gibt Fehler bei seiner Amtsf=C3=BChrung zu, lehnt einen R=C3=BCcktritt =
aber weiter ab.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   5. Januar: Die "Bild"-Zeitung bittet Wulff, die umstrittene =
Mailbox-Nachricht ver=C3=B6ffentlichen zu d=C3=BCrfen. Dieser lehnt ab. =
"Die in einer au=C3=9Fergew=C3=B6hnlich emotionalen Situation =
gesprochenen Worte waren ausschlie=C3=9Flich f=C3=BCr Sie und f=C3=BCr =
sonst niemanden bestimmt", erkl=C3=A4rt er in einem Schreiben.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   6. Januar: R=C3=BCckhalt f=C3=BCr den Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten: Wulff =
=C3=BCberzeugt die B=C3=BCrger mit seinem Auftreten im TV-Interview zur =
Kredit- und Medienaff=C3=A4re nicht =E2=80=93 eine Mehrheit will ihm =
aber eine zweite Chance geben. Die "Bild" l=C3=A4sst Wulff eine =
Abschrift seiner Mailbox-Nachricht zukommen =E2=80=93 damit er sich =
nicht nur auf seine Erinnerung st=C3=BCtzen m=C3=BCsse.

  =20
  Foto: picture-alliance / Sven Simon/picture-alliance
   7. Januar: SPD-Chef Sigmar Gabriel wirft Wulff vor, die =
Ma=C3=9Fst=C3=A4be f=C3=BCr Ehrlichkeit und Glaubw=C3=BCrdigkeit in die =
falsche Richtung zu verschieben. Er betont, dass die SPD damals den =
"besseren Pr=C3=A4sidenten" wollte: Joachim Gauck.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   8. Januar: SPD-Generalsekret=C3=A4rin Andrea Nahles (r.) fordert =
f=C3=BCr den Fall eines Wulff-R=C3=BCcktritts Neuwahlen. Gabriel =
widersprach ihr zugleich.

  =20
  Foto: Getty Images/Getty
   9. Januar: Eine Umfrage zeigt: Nicht einmal jeder Dritte f=C3=BChlt =
sich durch Wulff angemessen repr=C3=A4sentiert

  =20
  Foto: picture alliance / Eventpress/Eventpress
   10. Januar: "Spiegel Online" berichtet =C3=BCber einen neuen Vorwurf. =
Filmproduzent David Groneworld (rechts im Bild, Archivfoto 2005) ) hat =
eine Biografie =C3=BCber seinen Freund Christian Wulff mit 10.000 Euro =
bezuschusst. Es gibt "unterschiedliche Angaben dar=C3=BCber, wof=C3=BCr =
genau die Zahlungen bestimmt waren". Pikant: Wulff hat sich als =
Ministerpr=C3=A4sident f=C3=BCr die Interessen der Filmindustrie =
eingesetzt.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   11. Januar: Der Anwalt von Bundespr=C3=A4sident Christian Wulff, =
Gernot Lehr, lehnt eine Ver=C3=B6ffentlichung der Fragen und Antworten =
zu der Kredit- und Medienaff=C3=A4re des Staatsoberhauptes weiter ab. Er =
habe rechtliche Bedenken.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   12. Januar: Christian Wulff empf=C3=A4ngt Kanzlerin Angela Merkel im =
Rahmen des Neujahrsempfangs. W=C3=A4hrenddessen geben mehrere Zeitungen =
Wulffs Anw=C3=A4lten gr=C3=BCnes Licht f=C3=BCr die =
Ver=C3=B6ffentlichung der Fragen und Antworten.

  =20
  Foto: picture-alliance/ dpa/dpa
   14. Januar: Beim Oktoberfest 2008 erhielt Wulff, hier mit Ehefrau =
Bettina, nach Medienberichten von Unternehmer Groenewold ein Upgrade =
f=C3=BCr eine Suite. Davon soll der Politiker nichts gewusst haben.

  =20
  Foto: dapd, pa/dpa/Maja Hitij, Ralf U. Heinrich
   16. Januar: Wulff sagt eine Aufzeichnung f=C3=BCr die Sendung "Fragen =
an den Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten" im Rahmen der Reihe "Galileo Spezial" ab. =
Als Moderatorin war auch das Model Sara Nuru, die "Germany's Next =
Topmodel"-Gewinnerin 2009, vorgesehen.

  =20
  Foto: REUTERS
   18. Januar: Die Staatsanwaltschaft Stuttgart wird gegen Wulff und die =
BW-Bank kein Ermittlungsverfahren einleiten. Ein Anfangsverdacht =
f=C3=BCr Untreue oder Vorteilsnahme beziehungsweise =
Vorteilsgew=C3=A4hrung sei nicht ersichtlich, teilte die Beh=C3=B6rde =
mit. In der ersten Landtagsdebatte =C3=BCber die Vorw=C3=BCrfe hat die =
nieders=C3=A4chsische Opposition der Landesregierung eine Behinderung =
der Aufkl=C3=A4rung vorgeworfen. Die Regierung verweigere =
=C3=BCberf=C3=A4llige Ausk=C3=BCnfte =C3=BCber Wulffs Verhalten in =
seiner Zeit als Ministerpr=C3=A4sident bis Mitte 2010, kritisierten SPD =
und Gr=C3=BCne.

  =20
  Foto: dpa
   19. Januar: Die Staatsanwaltschaft Hannover durchsucht Privat- und =
Gesch=C3=A4ftsr=C3=A4ume des Ex-Sprechers von Wulff. Olaf Glaeseker (r.) =
wird Bestechlichkeit vorgeworfen.

  =20
  Foto: dpa/DPA
   20. Januar: Wulffs Anwalt best=C3=A4tigt auf Anfrage: Christian und =
Bettina Wulff haben sich 2010 ihre Reise- und =C3=9Cbernachtungskosten =
beim M=C3=BCnchner Filmball von der Firma Zentis bezahlen lassen. Die =
Einladung habe jedoch im Einklang mit dem nieders=C3=A4chsischen =
Ministergesetz gestanden.

  =20
  Foto: dapd/DAPD
   21. Januar: Das Staatsoberhaupt verliert das Vertrauen der =
Bev=C3=B6lkerung. Wulffs Glaubw=C3=BCrdigkeitswerte sind 43 =
Prozentpunkte schlechter als zum Amtsantritt =E2=80=93 nur noch jeder =
vierte Deutsche h=C3=A4lt ihn f=C3=BCr ehrlich.
Selbst manche Journalisten haben vor kurzem gejammert, die eigene Zunft =
spiele sich im Fall Wulff als Richter auf. Das ist absurd. =
Tats=C3=A4chlich entwickelt sich die Causa Wulff zu einem Thema, das =
auch gestandene Redakteure ratlos zur=C3=BCckl=C3=A4sst. Ohne die =
Recherche aus =C3=BCbrigens sehr unterschiedlich grundierten =
Presseh=C3=A4usern w=C3=A4re es nicht einmal zu den halbherzigen =
Entschuldigungen gekommen, mit denen Wulff glaubte, die Aff=C3=A4re =
beenden zu k=C3=B6nnen. Die Verteidiger des Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten =
klagen nun =C3=BCber eine =E2=80=9EPressekampagne=E2=80=9C und fordern =
Respekt vor dem Amt.=20


Wulff entgleitet die W=C3=BCrde=20

Doch einer Staatsr=C3=A4son muss zun=C3=A4chst einmal der =
Bundespr=C3=A4sident gerecht werden, nicht etwa Journalisten. Dass =
Rechercheure unterschiedlicher Provenienz zu =C3=A4hnlichen Ergebnissen =
und Bewertungen kommen, zeugt deshalb nicht von =
=E2=80=9EKampagne=E2=80=9C und schon gar nicht von =
=E2=80=9EGleichschaltung=E2=80=9C, wie manche in ma=C3=9Floser Aufregung =
behaupten. Dieses Ph=C3=A4nomen spricht vor allem f=C3=BCr unsere =
Republik.=20

Dass die ver=C3=B6ffentlichte Meinung in Deutschland sich nach mehr als =
60 Jahren praktizierter Pressefreiheit von politischer G=C3=A4ngelung =
und Instrumentalisierung weitgehend befreit hat, mag h=C3=B6chstens noch =
der ein oder andere Parteisoldat bedauern. Christian Wulff wurde =
Bundespr=C3=A4sident, weil die Kanzlerin es so wollte. Inzwischen ist er =
ein Staatsoberhaupt, dem die W=C3=BCrde des Sprechamtes entgleitet. So =
einen Pr=C3=A4sidenten braucht kein B=C3=BCrger dieser Republik.=20



http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article13827053/Praesident-Wulff-ge=
lebte-staatspolitische-Schizophrenie.html

Wulffs Verteidigung ist schwere Feigheit im Amt

=20
Wieviel Respekt verdient ein Chef, der seine Mitarbeiter feuert, bevor =
er selbst Verantwortung =C3=BCbernimmt?
Foto: dapd
Von Stephan Hebel

Man mag von Medien halten, was man will =E2=80=93 aber bedarf es =
niederen journalistischen Jagdinstinkts, um aus Wulffs Verhalten eine =
R=C3=BCcktrittsforderung abzuleiten? Ein Kommentar.

Willkommen zur n=C3=A4chsten Folge von =E2=80=9EWulff muss weg=E2=80=9C. =
Wir begr=C3=BC=C3=9Fen Sie aus den d=C3=BCsteren Schreibstuben eines aus =
Jux und Dollerei den Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten jagenden Rudel-Journalismus. =
Wir hei=C3=9Fen Sie willkommen im Namen einer =E2=80=9Egro=C3=9Fen =
Koalition unter F=C3=BChrung der Bild-Zeitung=E2=80=9C, wie Josef Joffe =
von der Zeit es nennt. Wir melden uns noch einmal, um =
=E2=80=9Egleichgeschaltet=E2=80=9C (Roland Tichy von der =
Wirtschaftswoche), aber unersch=C3=BCttert ein weiteres Mal auszurufen: =
Wulff muss weg.

Zugegeben: Um den R=C3=BCcktritt noch einmal zu fordern, h=C3=A4tte es =
dieses Textes nicht bedurft. Aber es bedarf offenbar einer immer neuen =
Anstrengung, den Kern der Auseinandersetzung hinter all den Fakten, =
Fragen und =E2=80=93 ja, auch die gibt es =E2=80=93 medialen =
Inszenierungen zu erkennen.=20

Um das zu tun, muss man keineswegs alles glauben, was Medien verbreiten. =
Dazu gleich mehr. Aber die Substanz sauber recherchierter Fakten, die =
selbst Wulff nicht bestreitet, sollte auch der sch=C3=A4rfste =
Medienkritiker nicht aus den Augen verlieren.

Diese Substanz =E2=80=93 der Stoff, aus dem die berechtigten =
R=C3=BCcktrittsforderungen sind =E2=80=93 l=C3=A4sst sich nicht mit den =
Begriffen des Strafrechts beschreiben. Weshalb, nebenbei, der =
st=C3=A4ndige Hinweis der Wulff-Verteidiger ins Leere geht, dass es =
gegen den Pr=C3=A4sidenten ja kein Gerichtsverfahren gebe, jedenfalls =
kein strafrechtliches.=20

Ist es vor lauter Aufregung nicht mehr m=C3=B6glich, eine politische =
Debatte von einer Strafanzeige, eine R=C3=BCcktrittsforderung von einem =
Antrag auf Haftbefehl zu unterscheiden?

Die politische Debatte dreht sich um die Frage, ob eine bestimmte Person =
einem bestimmten Amt gewachsen ist. Es geht um die Frage, ob diesem Amt =
gewachsen sein kann, wer unter dem Verdacht steht, materielle Vorteile =
genossen zu haben, die er ohne seinen Politikerstatus vielleicht nicht =
erhalten h=C3=A4tte.=20

Und es geht vor allem um die Frage, ob der Inhaber des h=C3=B6chsten =
Staatsamts in seiner vorherigen Funktion all dies zu vertuschen suchte, =
indem er dem Parlament falsche oder unzureichende Antworten gab oder =
geben lie=C3=9F.=20

In diesen Tagen verdient bei der R=C3=BCcktrittsfrage noch etwas anderes =
unser Augenmerk: Seit Christian Wulff sich den bekannten Fragen und =
Vorw=C3=BCrfen ausgesetzt sieht, fl=C3=BCchtet er sich in eine =
verdruckste, manchmal aber auch verr=C3=A4terische Art zu sprechen. Das =
j=C3=BCngste Beispiel gab er am Sonntag.

Diesmal ging es um die Frage, ob die nieders=C3=A4chsische Staatskanzlei =
die sinnfreie Sause namens Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog nicht doch =
unterst=C3=BCtzte, sei es mit Geld oder dem Anwerben von Sponsoren. =
Wulff: =E2=80=9ESollte jetzt doch Steuergeld geflossen sein, h=C3=A4tten =
wir dem Parlament nicht die Wahrheit gesagt =E2=80=93 das ist ein =
ernster Vorgang, der zu Recht jetzt vermutlich vom Staatsgerichtshof =
gekl=C3=A4rt werden wird.=E2=80=9C

Wulff sagt =E2=80=9Ewir=E2=80=9C =E2=80=93 und verh=C3=A4lt sich =
zugleich, als h=C3=A4tte er damit nichts zu tun. Denn wollte er sich zu =
seiner Verantwortung f=C3=BCr dieses =E2=80=9EWir=E2=80=9C bekennen, das =
ja nichts anderes bezeichnet als eine von ihm gef=C3=BChrte =
Landesregierung, dann bliebe ihm nur der Satz: Sollte sich der =
=E2=80=9Eernste Vorgang=E2=80=9C best=C3=A4tigen, dass meine Regierung =
das Parlament belog, dann trete ich als der damals Verantwortliche =
zur=C3=BCck.

Stattdessen eine Art seltsam pervertierter Pluralis Majestatis: So wie =
einst der K=C3=B6nig von sich selbst in der Mehrzahl sprach, weil alle =
Macht in seinen H=C3=A4nden lag, so versteckt sich unser Pr=C3=A4sident =
hinter einem =E2=80=9Ewir=E2=80=9C, zu dem er nicht mehr geh=C3=B6ren =
m=C3=B6chte. Es handelt sich um das Delegieren politischer Verantwortung =
an eine anonyme Beh=C3=B6rde namens Staatskanzlei, vertreten durch das =
Bauernopfer Olaf Glaeseker. Es handelt sich um schwere Feigheit im Amt.

Man mag von Medien halten, was man will =E2=80=93 aber bedarf es =
wirklich eines niederen journalistischen Jagd-Instinkts, um aus diesen =
Verhaltensweisen eine R=C3=BCcktrittsforderung abzuleiten? Haben wir =
Medien das Vertrauen unserer Leserinnen und Leser so verspielt, dass uns =
ein nennenswerter Teil der B=C3=BCrgerschaft nicht zutraut, Wulffs =
Abgang aus ehrlicher Sorge um die politische Hygiene im Land zu fordern?

Es w=C3=A4re unsinnig zu bestreiten, dass Medien zu diesem Misstrauen =
ihre Beitr=C3=A4ge geleistet haben. Dass manche Journalisten sich stolz =
wie ein Teil des Politikbetriebs benehmen, den sie kontrollieren =
sollten, entspricht den Tatsachen. Dass einige Vertreter seri=C3=B6ser =
Leitmedien sich auf unverantwortliche Weise mit Bild gemeinmachten, =
trifft ebenso zu. Sie h=C3=A4tten merken m=C3=BCssen, dass Bild-Chef Kai =
Diekmann den kurzfristig betretenen seri=C3=B6sen Sektor zur Jahreswende =
schon wieder verlie=C3=9F.=20

Stattdessen lie=C3=9Fen sie sich von ihm mit H=C3=A4ppchen von der =
Mailbox versorgen und brachten sie anstelle des Boulevardblatts unter =
die Leute, w=C3=A4hrend Bild sich daf=C3=BCr feiern lie=C3=9F, den =
Inhalt f=C3=BCr sich zu behalten.

All das hat es gegeben. Aber nichts davon f=C3=BChrt zu irgendwelchen =
Abstrichen an den unwiderlegbaren Fakten, die teils dieselben Medien ans =
Tageslicht brachten. Schlimm genug, dass manche Journalisten das =
Ansehen, das die Branche mit Erfolgen bei der Aufkl=C3=A4rung erwirbt, =
durch unseri=C3=B6se Kampagnen wieder zerst=C3=B6ren. Aber dass Wulff im =
Amt bleiben sollte, l=C3=A4sst sich daraus nun wirklich nicht =
schlie=C3=9Fen.

Artikel URL: =
http://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik/kommentar-wulffs-verteidigung-ist-=
schwere-feigheit-im-amt,10808018,11499842.html

  =
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                                                                       =
Politics: from Vision to Action

Barandat                                                         False =
Flag                                          =20

A series of CIA memos describes how Israeli Mossad agents posed as =
American spies to recruit members of the terrorist organization =
Jundallah to fight their covert war against Iran.=20

BY MARK PERRY |JANUARY 13, 2012=20

Buried deep in the archives of America's intelligence services are a =
series of memos, written during the last years of President George W. =
Bush's administration, that describe how Israeli Mossad officers =
recruited operatives belonging to the terrorist group Jundallah by =
passing themselves off as American agents. According to two U.S. =
intelligence officials, the Israelis, flush with American dollars and =
toting U.S. passports, posed as CIA officers in recruiting Jundallah =
operatives -- what is commonly referred to as a "false flag" operation.

The memos, as described by the sources, one of whom has read them and =
another who is intimately familiar with the case, investigated and =
debunked reports from 2007 and 2008 accusing the CIA, at the direction =
of the White House, of covertly supporting Jundallah -- a Pakistan-based =
Sunni extremist organization. Jundallah, according to the U.S. =
government and published reports, is responsible for assassinating =
Iranian government officials and killing Iranian women and children.

But while the memos show that the United States had barred even the most =
incidental contact with Jundallah, according to both intelligence =
officers, the same was not true for Israel's Mossad. The memos also =
detail CIA field reports saying that Israel's recruiting activities =
occurred under the nose of U.S. intelligence officers, most notably in =
London, the capital of one of Israel's ostensible allies, where Mossad =
officers posing as CIA operatives met with Jundallah officials.

The officials did not know whether the Israeli program to recruit and =
use Jundallah is ongoing. Nevertheless, they were stunned by the =
brazenness of the Mossad's efforts.

"It's amazing what the Israelis thought they could get away with," the =
intelligence officer said. "Their recruitment activities were nearly in =
the open. They apparently didn't give a damn what we thought."

Interviews with six currently serving or recently retired intelligence =
officers over the last 18 months have helped to fill in the blanks of =
the Israeli false-flag operation. In addition to the two currently =
serving U.S. intelligence officers, the existence of the Israeli =
false-flag operation was confirmed to me by four retired intelligence =
officers who have served in the CIA or have monitored Israeli =
intelligence operations from senior positions inside the U.S. =
government.=20

The CIA and the White House were both asked for comment on this story. =
By the time this story went to press, they had not responded. The =
Israeli intelligence services -- the Mossad -- were also contacted, in =
writing and by telephone, but failed to respond. As a policy, Israel =
does not confirm or deny its involvement in intelligence operations.

There is no denying that there is a covert, bloody, and ongoing campaign =
aimed at stopping Iran's nuclear program, though no evidence has emerged =
connecting recent acts of sabotage and killings inside Iran to =
Jundallah. Many reports have cited Israel as the architect of this =
covert campaign, which claimed its latest victim on Jan. 11 when a =
motorcyclist in Tehran slipped a magnetic explosive device under the car =
of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a young Iranian nuclear scientist. The =
explosion killed Roshan, making him the fourth scientist assassinated in =
the past two years. The United States adamantly denies it is behind =
these killings.

According to one retired CIA officer, information about the false-flag =
operation was reported up the U.S. intelligence chain of command. It =
reached CIA Director of Operations Stephen Kappes, his deputy Michael =
Sulick, and the head of the Counterintelligence Center. All three of =
these officials are now retired. The Counterintelligence Center, =
according to its website, is tasked with investigating "threats posed by =
foreign intelligence services."

The report then made its way to the White House, according to the =
currently serving U.S. intelligence officer. The officer said that Bush =
"went absolutely ballistic" when briefed on its contents.

"The report sparked White House concerns that Israel's program was =
putting Americans at risk," the intelligence officer told me. "There's =
no question that the U.S. has cooperated with Israel in =
intelligence-gathering operations against the Iranians, but this was =
different. No matter what anyone thinks, we're not in the business of =
assassinating Iranian officials or killing Iranian civilians."

Israel's relationship with Jundallah continued to roil the Bush =
administration until the day it left office, this same intelligence =
officer noted. Israel's activities jeopardized the administration's =
fragile relationship with Pakistan, which was coming under intense =
pressure from Iran to crack down on Jundallah. It also undermined U.S. =
claims that it would never fight terror with terror, and invited attacks =
in kind on U.S. personnel.

"It's easy to understand why Bush was so angry," a former intelligence =
officer said. "After all, it's hard to engage with a foreign government =
if they're convinced you're killing their people. Once you start doing =
that, they feel they can do the same."

A senior administration official vowed to "take the gloves off" with =
Israel, according to a U.S. intelligence officer. But the United States =
did nothing -- a result that the officer attributed to "political and =
bureaucratic inertia."

"In the end," the officer noted, "it was just easier to do nothing than =
to, you know, rock the boat." Even so, at least for a short time, this =
same officer noted, the Mossad operation sparked a divisive debate among =
Bush's national security team, pitting those who wondered "just whose =
side these guys [in Israel] are on" against those who argued that "the =
enemy of my enemy is my friend."=20

The debate over Jundallah was resolved only after Bush left office when, =
within his first weeks as president, Barack Obama drastically scaled =
back joint U.S.-Israel intelligence programs targeting Iran, according =
to multiple serving and retired officers.

The decision was controversial inside the CIA, where officials were =
forced to shut down "some key intelligence-gathering operations," a =
recently retired CIA officer confirmed. This action was followed in =
November 2010 by the State Department's addition of Jundallah to its =
list of foreign terrorist organizations -- a decision that one former =
CIA officer called "an absolute no-brainer."

Since Obama's initial order, U.S. intelligence services have received =
clearance to cooperate with Israel on a number of classified =
intelligence-gathering operations focused on Iran's nuclear program, =
according to a currently serving officer. These operations are highly =
technical in nature and do not involve covert actions targeting Iran's =
infrastructure or political or military leadership.

"We don't do bang and boom," a recently retired intelligence officer =
said. "And we don't do political assassinations."

Israel regularly proposes conducting covert operations targeting =
Iranians, but is just as regularly shut down, according to retired and =
current intelligence officers. "They come into the room and spread out =
their plans, and we just shake our heads," one highly placed =
intelligence source said, "and we say to them -- 'Don't even go there. =
The answer is no.'"

Unlike the Mujahedin-e Khalq, the controversial exiled Iranian terrorist =
group that seeks the overthrow of the Tehran regime and is supported by =
former leading U.S. policymakers, Jundallah is relatively unknown -- but =
just as violent. In May 2009, a Jundallah suicide bomber blew himself up =
inside a mosque in Zahedan, the capital of Iran's southeastern =
Sistan-Baluchistan province bordering Pakistan, during a Shiite =
religious festival. The bombing killed 25 Iranians and wounded scores of =
others.

The attack enraged Tehran, which traced the perpetrators to a cell =
operating in Pakistan. The Iranian governmentnotified the Pakistanis of =
the Jundallah threat and urged them to break up the movement's bases =
along the Iranian-Pakistani border. The Pakistanis reacted sluggishly in =
the border areas, feeding Tehran's suspicions that Jundallah was =
protected by Pakistan's intelligence services.

The 2009 attack was just one in a long line of terrorist attacks =
attributed to the organization. In August 2007, Jundallahkidnapped 21 =
Iranian truck drivers. In December 2008, it captured and executed 16 =
Iranian border guards -- the gruesome killings were filmed, in a stark =
echo of the decapitation of American businessman Nick Berg in Iraq at =
the hands of al Qaeda's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In July 2010, Jundallah =
conducted a twin suicide bombing in Zahedan outside a mosque, killing =
dozens of people, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard =
Corps.

The State Department aggressively denies that the U.S. government had or =
has any ties to Jundallah. "We have repeatedly stated, and reiterate =
again that the United States has not provided support to Jundallah," a =
spokesman wrote in an email to the Wall Street Journal, following =
Jundallah's designation as a terrorist organization. "The United States =
does not sponsor any form of terrorism. We will continue to work with =
the international community to curtail support for terrorist =
organizations and prevent violence against innocent civilians. We have =
also encouraged other governments to take comparable actions against =
Jundallah."

A spate of stories in 2007 and 2008, including a report by ABC News and =
a New Yorker article, suggested that the United States was offering =
covert support to Jundallah. The issue has now returned to the spotlight =
with the string of assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and has =
outraged serving and retired intelligence officers who fear that Israeli =
operations are endangering American lives.

"This certainly isn't the first time this has happened, though it's the =
worst case I've heard of," former Centcom chief and retired Gen. Joe =
Hoar said of the Israeli operation upon being informed of it. "But while =
false-flag operations are hardly new, they're extremely dangerous. =
You're basically using your friendship with an ally for your own =
purposes. Israel is playing with fire. It gets us involved in their =
covert war, whether we want to be involved or not."

The Israeli operation left a number of recently retired CIA officers =
sputtering in frustration. "It's going to be pretty hard for the U.S. to =
distance itself from an Israeli attack on Iran with this kind of thing =
going on," one of them told me.

Jundallah head Abdolmalek Rigi wascaptured by Iran in February 2010. =
Although initial reports claimed that he was captured by the Iranians =
after taking a flight from Dubai to Kyrgyzstan, a retired intelligence =
officer with knowledge of the incident told me that Rigi was detained by =
Pakistani intelligence officers in Pakistan. The officer said that Rigi =
was turned over to the Iranians after the Pakistani government informed =
the United States that it planned to do so. The United States, this =
officer said, did not raise objections to the Pakistani decision.

Iran, meanwhile, has consistently claimed that Rigi was snatched from =
under the eyes of the CIA, which it alleges supported him. "It doesn't =
matter," the former intelligence officer said of Iran's charges. "It =
doesn't matter what they say. They know the truth."

Rigi was interrogated, tried, and convicted by the Iranians and hanged =
on June 20, 2010. Prior to his execution, Rigi claimed in an interview =
with Iranian media -- which has to be assumed was under duress -- that =
he had doubts about U.S. sponsorship of Jundallah. He recounted an =
alleged meeting with "NATO officials" in Morocco in 2007 that raised his =
suspicions. "When we thought about it we came to the conclusion that =
they are either Americans acting under NATO cover or Israelis," he said.

While many of the details of Israel's involvement with Jundallah are now =
known, many others still remain a mystery --and are likely to remain so. =
The CIA memos of the incident have been "blue bordered," meaning that =
they were circulated to senior levels of the broader U.S. intelligence =
community as well as senior State Department officials.

What has become crystal clear, however, is the level of anger among =
senior intelligence officials about Israel's actions. "This was stupid =
and dangerous," the intelligence official who first told me about the =
operation said. "Israel is supposed to be working with us, not against =
us. If they want to shed blood, it would help a lot if it was their =
blood and not ours. You know, they're supposed to be a strategic asset. =
Well, guess what? There are a lot of people now, important people, who =
just don't think that's true."


http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag?page=3Dfull
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                                 New pan-Maghreb entrepreneur network to =
boost jobs
20 January 2012


Hundreds of Maghreb businesspeople and officials explored ways to =
cultivate cross-border commercial ties.=20




Business leaders from Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Mauritania, Algeria and =
the US agreed to set up a joint network to spur job creation in the =
Maghreb.=20


Over 400 young entrepreneurs gathered January 17th-18th in Marrakech to =
explore opportunities for partnerships and common projects. The second =
US-Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference highlighted youth business =
opportunities as a fundamental aspect of Maghreb economic policies aimed =
at ensuring social peace and political stability.=20


The new Moroccan government sees youth employment as a high-priority =
issue, Economy and Finance Minister Nizar Baraka told Magharebia.=20


Participants addressed ways to create new jobs and business ventures as =
well as cultivate partnership links between the Maghreb and the United =
States.=20


Furthermore, they discussed the tools needed, be they technical, =
financial or legal, to meet the needs of young businesspeople.=20


"If we can provide young people with the help and support they need to =
realise their projects, then we will be in a position to combat rising =
unemployment in an effective way," said Moussa Hachem, a young =
entrepreneur in the field of new communication technologies from =
Casablanca.=20


It is high time for young people in the Maghreb to work together and to =
promote a business culture in their countries, participants agreed. =
Youth entrepreneurs need support and educational programmes in line with =
the actual needs of the labour market, they stressed.=20


In conclusion, they called for the promotion of partnerships in the =
fields of training and coaching so that people can capitalise on =
successful experiences in the field.=20


El Hadi Belabbas, Tunisian Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs in =
charge of Asian and American relations, said that democratic development =
in the Maghreb would come about through international co-operation in =
the economic and social spheres.=20



For her part, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said at =
the conference that young people must from now on be seen as real =
players and driving forces within their societies, not as mere =
consumers.=20


This partnership will allow young Maghreb entrepreneurs to realise their =
projects, to communicate with one another, to seek funding for their =
plans and to benefit from training sessions to consolidate their skills =
and learn languages, said US Assistant Secretary of State Jos=C3=A9 W. =
Fernandez.=20


The US government has announced that it is putting the finishing touches =
to a $4 million programme to support young Maghreb entrepreneurs over =
the coming year.=20


The conference, which is the brainchild of Partners for a New Beginning =
(PNB) and the North Africa Partnership for Economic Opportunity (NAPEO), =
aims to stimulate partners in the worlds of business, universities and =
state bodies in the Maghreb and the US. The goal is to promote economic =
equality, encourage start-ups through training and greater access to =
capital, and inspire young entrepreneurs to play a role in generating =
jobs in the region.=20


http://ae.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20120121055454/New_panMaghreb_entre=
preneur_network_to_boost_jobs
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                                                                         =
                        Middle East                                      =
                       =20
 Merkel praises Abbas for easing pressure on Palestinian statehood
                                                                         =
                 =20
German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised Palestinian President Mahmoud =
Abbas on Wednesday in Berlin for easing off pressure on major nations to =
recognize Palestine as a state, DPA reported.

Germany, which opposes statehood without Israeli consent, has quarrelled =
with EU allies who favour the move.

"We have differing points of view about whether it makes sense to have =
recognition of a Palestinian state: yes or no. But that allows us to act =
in unity on the issue of getting the matter up for negotiation," said =
Merkel with Abbas at her side after talks.

"President Abbas has said that as far as he is concerned, this can be =
postponed for a certain period, and that what it really is about is =
peace and a two-state solution and borders," she said.

Abbas has been in Berlin for two days of meetings with senior officials, =
including a guard-of-honour welcome and lunch with Germany's President =
Christian Wulff, although Germany does not recognize the Palestine =
Authority as a state under international law.

He earlier assured the speaker of Germany's parliament that he would be =
open to a compromise on issues of Israel's security, sources close to =
the speaker, Norbert Lammert, said.

Abbas would allow Israeli forces to remain on Palestinian territory for =
a three-year period, together with NATO peacekeeping forces, after a =
peace treaty, they said. But Abbas flatly rejected Israeli demands to =
keep forces in the territory for 40 years.

"He (Abbas) has recognized that security is an important point," said =
Merkel, urging a resumption of full talks broken off 16 months ago.

Abbas visited London earlier this week and is to visit Moscow next week, =
briefing the powers on the progress of Israeli-Palestinian talks in =
Jordan on terms to resume peace negotiations. A fourth such meeting is =
set for January 25.

"Time is of the essence. It would be a great gift if we could have some =
progress," Merkel said. "We're in a situation where both sides are =
willing to speak to one another, and for many months that was not the =
case. We want to use this opportunity."=20
                                          =20

http://en.trend.az/regions/world/europe/1982191.html
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                                                                         =
     =20
Massenbach'sRecommendation  =20
      =20
                                                                         =
                             Asia Times: Saudi Arabia pivots toward Asia

Saudi Arabia's future lies in Asia. That was the subtext of Chinese =
Premier Wen Jiabao's recent visit to Riyadh. That future might arrive a =
lot quicker than people think, if BP is to be believed.=20

BP's most recent energy outlook report predicts that the United States =
will become almost self-sufficient in energy by 2030, thanks to =
exploitation of its shale oil and gas resources.=20

Per The Guardian, this is a ''development with enormous geopolitical =
implications". [1]=20

Specifically, the geopolitical implication is that, if the United States =
does not need the Middle East for energy security, it will lose much of =
its motivation to meddle in the region, at least in the
immense nation-destroying, budget-busting tradition of the Iraq wars.=20

Maybe, just maybe, the United States will wash its hands of the =
intractable Middle East and sail on to Asia in a search for the 21st =
century heart of wealth and power.=20

That's bad news for Israel and for Saudi Arabia, both of whom rely on =
United States backing to buttress their shaky fortunes in the region ... =
fortunes that have become more perilous with the advent of the Arab =
Spring, and the evaporation of local authoritarian and/or pro-US regimes =
that were quite happy to coexist with Israeli high-handedness and narrow =
Saudi autocracy.=20

It's also bad news for the European Union and Britain, both of whom rely =
on Middle East energy imports and - as the Libyan adventure =
demonstrated, 56 years after the humiliation of Suez - still lack the =
resources and capabilities to bully their way through their =
petrochallenges without significant US backup.=20

Maybe, the theory seems to be, a magic combination of US commitment to =
democracy promotion, human rights, nuclear non-proliferation, and =
loyalty to its allies will keep the Barack Obama administration's =
attention riveted on Iran and forestall the Middle East's slow slide =
into irrelevance, insofar as Washington is concerned.=20

So, as the United States extricates itself from Iraq - seemingly =
indifferent to the fact that the bloody ten-year occupation has birthed =
a pro-Iranian Shi'ite-based regime instead of the promised =
pro-American/pro-Israel/pro-Saudi proxy - considerable effort has been =
expended to keep the Iranian pot boiling.=20

Israel issues veiled warnings of its intent to attack Iran unilaterally; =
the EU and Britain wring its hands over Iran's alleged nuclear =
weaponization activities; the Gulf regimes raise the regional stakes by =
supporting Sunni militancy against Iranian allies in Iraq and Syria; and =
somebody murders an Iranian nuclear scientist.=20

To forestall one of Iran's local enemies from jumpstarting a conflict =
that drags in the United States, the Obama administration engages in =
theatrical displays of anti-Iranian rhetoric, sanctions resolve, and =
warship deployments meant to demonstrate that the US is driving the Iran =
agenda, instead of being driven by it ... while stubbornly forging ahead =
with America's Asian pivot and quietly reassuring skittish allies in =
Tokyo and South Korea that it really isn't going to crater the world =
economy for the sake of Iran's nuclear program.=20

Israel, with its powerful political, economic, military and diplomatic =
backing from the United States, a population apparently reconciled to =
its perceived role as a disliked occupying power, and the reassurance of =
an undeclared nuclear arsenal, can still be sanguine about its political =
fortunes.=20

Saudi Arabia, an autocracy that serves as the defender of a religion =
politically toxic in the United States - and, as the BP report =
indicates, facing displacement from the center of US economic and energy =
concerns - has to think about Plan B.=20

Plan B is Asia: India, China, South Korea and Japan.=20

China is perhaps already Saudi Arabia's largest customer, taking 1 =
million barrels per day (bpd - one-fifth of its requirement) and =
currently making up for the demand shortfall from economically =
straitened Europe. How China's surging demand and Saudi Arabia's =
maturing oil and gas industry will complement each other is a fraught =
and interesting question.=20

The details of Premier Wen's visit highlights Saudi Arabia's awkward =
21st century transition from the world's indispensable guarantor of =
hydrocarbon supply to anxious oil and gas partner to Asia's surging =
economies.=20

The centerpiece of Wen's visit was the signature of an agreement for the =
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) to invest in an 400,000 =
bpd export refinery, known as YASREF (for" Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining =
Company"), in Saudi Arabia at Yanbu.=20

The Yanbu refinery is already under construction, and is slated for =
completion in 2014. The original foreign partner was ConocoPhillips, =
which pulled out in 2010.=20

ConocoPhillips pulled out because it was a) choked by debt from an =
acquisition binge and b) getting out of the refining business globally =
because it couldn't match the return from investing in production.=20

The reason the refinery - with an $8.5 billion price tag - has to be =
built is because crude from Saudi Arabia's current big play, the Manifa =
offshore field in the Persian Gulf, is too heavy and sulfur-laden to =
feed foreign refineries designed for sweet Saudi and Iranian crude.=20

The reason the refinery has to be built at Yanbu is because Yanbu is on =
the Red Sea, at the eastern terminus of the East-West Pipeline. The =
East-West pipeline, which has the capacity to move 4.8 million bpd or =
half of Saudi Arabia's current output, is a piece of security =
infrastructure meant to reduce Saudi Arabia's reliance on the Persian =
Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.=20

Another reason the refinery has to be built is that Saudi clout in =
regional and world affairs depends on it making up any shortfall in =
world output if, for instance, Iranian crude left the market. Indeed, in =
the wake of Hurricane Katrina and during the Libyan fracas, the Saudis =
apparently stepped up.=20

But increased supply of high-quality sweet crude to European refineries =
set up for Libyan crude was accompanied by accelerated production plans =
for Manifa, exacerbating long-held suspicions about the actual reserves =
- especially reserves of sweet crude - available to Saudi Arabia. As one =
analyst put it:=20
  With Saudi producing 8.3 million barrels a day pre-Libyan disruptions, =
why would Saudi accelerate a heavy-oil development if they really had =
4.2 million barrels per day of spare capacity? [2]=20
If an unpleasant scenario (World War III in the Gulf) crippled Iranian =
exports for an extended period of time, it looks like the Saudis could =
no longer assure an increased supply of sweet crude.=20

Perhaps refinery products (including diesel and gasoline from YASREF) =
would serve as an acceptable palliative. But it would also be an =
indication that Saudi Arabia's halcyon days as the indispensable =
marginal supplier are numbered. Riyadh's efforts to provide rationally =
for its future have unintended consequences.=20

The Yanbu refinery is a security play that further diminishes the =
importance of the Strait of Hormuz - and diminishes the need for Western =
vigilance to keep the waterway open. Bypassing the strait is a trend =
that has been going on for some time.=20

In addition to the East-West pipeline, Abu Dhabi is rushing completion =
of a $3.29 billion underwater pipeline from Abu Dhabi that will bypass =
the Strait of Hormuz and deliver 1.5 million bpd of crude to Fujairah =
(equivalent to about 10% of the supertanker traffic currently passing =
through Hormuz), on the other side of the strait on the Gulf of Oman. =
[3]=20

The Iranians have also been trying to avoid the Hormuz bottleneck by =
building the "Friendship" or "IPI" gas pipeline to Pakistan and India, =
thereby assisting Pakistan in solving its crippling energy shortages. =
The United States, with an unfortunate callousness, has labored mightily =
to block the pipeline and sustain Iranian reliance on crude tanker =
shipments by the easily blocked (by a US blockade as well as Iranian =
missiles) strait for its revenues.=20

Saudi focus on Mafina, together with Riyadh's professed desire to =
sustain crude prices at $100 a barrel, raise the question of whether =
production has actually peaked, and how cheap Saudi crude really is.=20

Much has been made of Riyadh's need for high oil revenues to buy off =
Saudi citizens with social programs and avert an Arab Spring-style =
rumpus in the kingdom. With oil at $100/barrel, the Saudi budget is now =
apparently running a healthy surplus.=20

However, high prices have also spurred the boom in North American oil =
production, largely through fracking of shales in North Dakota and in =
Canada, and threaten to remove Saudi Arabia from its central position.=20

To be sure, technological advances in oil production have opened up what =
were once economically unviable shale oil reserves.=20

However, these technological advances still involve significant costs: =
at the Bakken field, in the center of the US shale-oil boom, operators =
drill straight down more than two kilometers, then drill sideways for =
two kilometers, then cement in a casing, then blow little holes in the =
casing, then pump in a mixture of water, chemicals and ceramic beads at =
high pressure to fracture the shale and prop open the crevices, then =
pump the glop to the surface, separate out the oil, rinse and repeat.=20

Shale oil breakeven is still about $55/barrel.=20

If Saudi Arabia was still able to make a hole a few hundred meters in =
the ground and watch hundreds of thousands of barrels of sweet crude =
pump itself to the separation plant and crude terminal relying on the =
natural pressure generated by the geologic formation itself at a cost of =
a few pennies a barrel, we probably wouldn't be looking at an oil market =
increasingly driven by fracking ... or $100/barrel oil.=20

The establishment of an infrastructure to bypass Hormuz and export =
finished products in a high-price environment makes economic sense ... =
but in a way, Saudi Arabia is thereby contributing to its own =
marginalization in the Western security equation.=20

That implies a greater Saudi reliance on Asian markets - and on the =
governments of China, Japan and South Korea, all of whom have shown a =
marked unwillingness to follow US diktats on Iran sanctions and place =
their energy futures solely in the hands of Saudi Arabia.=20

So it is interesting to speculate who holds the whip hand in Sino-Saudi =
relations.=20

With a certain amount of satisfaction, the West perceives China =
groveling before the Middle East energy baron that holds its economic =
future in its hands.=20

The New York Times, in an analysis that reflected as much wishful =
thinking and spin as hard fact, titled its article "Middle East Trip =
Suggests Change in Policy by China" and cautiously interpreted Wen's =
visit to Saudi Arabia as a distancing from Iran - even though China had =
unequivocally stated its determination to defy US wishes and continue to =
buy oil from Iran (and is stepping up its imports from the recovering =
oil industry of Iraq). [4]=20

Indeed, Wen's public call for Saudi Arabia to permit Chinese investment =
in crude production inside Saudi Arabia - the financial sweet spot - was =
rebuffed.=20

However, Wen also announced an agreement on cooperation in the =
development and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes with Saudi =
Arabia that may be more significant in the long run.=20

Saudi Arabia has a somewhat plausible interest in nuclear energy. But it =
is currently pitching crude directly into its turbines to generate =
electric power; if nuclear energy is cheaper than that, then the =
kingdom's petroleum production straits are genuinely dire.=20

Saudi Arabia already has nuclear cooperation agreements in place with =
the United States and France, raising the question of why it would want =
an additional agreement with China. [5]=20

Saudi cooperation with China could be a harbinger of an Iran-style =
scenario: ostentatious interest in development of a civilian energy =
infrastructure, but holding the promise of a quick jump to enrichment =
and fabrication beyond the weaponization red lines - and reaffirmation =
of Saudi Arabia's central role in the Middle East, in Islam, and in the =
world.=20

In the dance of alliance and interest between Saudi Arabia and China, =
nuclear cooperation may have been a key component, a concession by China =
that elicited Saudi forbearance on Beijing's continued ties with Tehran. =


It would also have served as a warning to the United States that Riyadh =
is not without recourse if it is forced to search for new, more =
enthusiastic security partners.=20

Saudi nuclearization is anathema to the United States.=20

Beyond Obama's noble (and Nobel-winning) motives for rolling back =
nuclear proliferation, there are hard geostrategic calculations at work. =


The United States has kept its geopolitical primacy in Asia by =
forestalling initiatives by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to go nuclear =
(in weaponry) and pursue independent foreign policies.=20

In the Middle East, on the other hand, Israel has the bomb and has =
graduated from plucky ally to dangerous, destabilizing and to some =
extent unwelcome partner.=20

One can safely assume that a nuclear Saudi Arabia - an insecure, opaque =
and ideologically-driven Islamist power that makes Pakistan look =
downright secular and transparent by comparison - would not be welcome =
to the United States.=20

It will be up to China to juggle the Saudi/Iran relationships delicately =
and dexterously. If it doesn't, trouble will probably not be long in =
coming.=20

If Saudi Arabia draws conspicuously close to China, look for the United =
States to miraculously and suddenly discover a strong and positive =
interest in supporting the democratic aspirations of the House of Saud's =
internal opponents (and indeed, in the plight of the kingdom's =
ill-treated Shi'ite minority and Shi'ite neighbors in Bahrain).=20

However, as the US gradually retreats from the Middle East, unpopular =
autocracies will crave new partners. And who is more familiar with =
dictatorships - or better equipped to prop up them up - than China?=20

Saudi Arabia's main claim to global indispensability is the assertion =
that, if the Iran situation blows up, Saudi Arabia will step forward, =
boost crude production, and make up the shortfall, thereby rescuing the =
tottering global economy.=20

Indeed, when Hurricane Katrina disrupted production in the Gulf of =
Mexico, and the Libyan imbroglio disrupted supplies to Europe, the =
Saudis did increase production and smooth out supply.=20

However, these were relatively brief hiccups, and there is growing =
suspicion that Saudi Arabia would have difficulty coming up with the =
wherewithal to keep world energy markets supplied.=20

Notes=20
1. Shale oil and gas 'will make US self-sufficient', Guardian, Jan 18, =
2012.=20
2. Kingdom steps up role in global energy security, Arab News, Apr 2, =
2011.
3. Pipeline Avoids Strait of Hormuz, New York Times, Jan 11, 2012.
4. Middle East Trip Suggests Change in Policy by China, New York Times, =
Jan 13, 2012.
5. Saudi Arabia, France to conclude nuclear cooperation pact, IEEJ, =
January 2011.=20

Peter Lee writes on East and South Asian affairs and their intersection =
with US foreign policy.=20

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA21Ak03.html=20

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 Merkel's moment:  Germany has deployed geo-economics to alter the =
geopolitics of the euro zone=20
Every major financial crisis has geopolitical consequences. The =
financial crises of the 1980s and 1990s in Latin America resulted in the =
emergence of Brazil as the dominant regional power, overtaking =
decisively other competitors like Mexico, Chile and Argentina. The Asian =
financial crisis contributed to the dominance of China over East and =
South-east Asia. The European fiscal and debt crisis has contributed to =
the consolidation of Germany=E2=80=99s power within Europe.


At the end of a long tunnel of painful political negotiations within =
Europe, the light of debt relief is powered by the German economy. =
However, a Germany that remains wary of asserting its political =
personality within Europe, as Japan has been in Asia, has firmly clasped =
the hand of France to form a Franco-German alliance providing political =
leadership to a distraught Europe.


German diplomats the world over are insisting that it is the =
=E2=80=9Cdual=E2=80=9D leadership of French President Nicolas Sarkozy =
and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that is working together to provide =
relief to the distressed European economies. When the ambassadors of =
Germany and France chose to brief a few editors in New Delhi earlier =
this year about their joint leadership in Europe, the meeting took place =
in the German ambassador=E2=80=99s house.=20


With France itself in a fiscal and financial bind, it is not =
particularly averse to this warm German hug and so has chosen to be in =
step with the more economically robust and self-assured Germany. While =
President Sarkozy exudes French charm in the company of other heads of =
state, in the company of the matronly German chancellor he behaves more =
like an obedient schoolboy!


Germany=E2=80=99s hesitation in offering more assertive political =
leadership within Europe is understandable. The fact, however, remains =
that it has been more successful in consolidating its power in its own =
neighbourhood than Japan has been in Asia.


Today Germany is to Europe what China has become to East and South-east =
Asia. Both China and Germany are at once exporting as well as importing =
powers. They export to the world but import largely from their =
neighbours. This is the geoeconomic foundation of their power in a =
globally integrated world.


The only difference, and an important one, is that China has been =
increasingly unabashed in asserting its military power. Germany =
continues to shy away from doing so, given the burden of memory that =
still haunts the so-called =E2=80=9Caxis=E2=80=9D powers of the last =
century.


Indeed, when France and Britain launched their offensive in Libya, =
Germany stood with Brazil, India and South Africa, fellow aspirants for =
United Nations Security Council membership, to abstain from voting for a =
UN resolution authorising a no-fly zone over Libya and stay away from =
military action.


Germany has consciously opted to project its power only within its own =
hinterland, as it did in the Balkans, ensuring that it emerges as the =
unquestioned leader of continental Europe. Beyond its own neighbourhood =
Germany remains a reluctant military power, but an aggressive economic =
power.


Given its industrial and technological leadership within Europe and its =
fiscal and financial strength, Germany has dealt with a changing world =
with greater self-assuredness than other European nations that have been =
unnerved both by the forces of globalisation and Asian competitiveness =
and by their domestic political inability to deal with fiscal and =
financial challenges.


As Ulrike Geurot, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, =
puts it, =E2=80=9CA European Germany is going global with or without its =
fellow Europeans... The huge transition that is occurring is that =
Germany (or more precisely, the German role in and for Europe) is =
shifting from geopolitics to geo-economics=E2=80=9D (available at: =
www.alexanderbon.com/2011/06/people-power-germany-greece-and-the-euro/).


What has helped Germany march ahead of its European neighbours is its =
ability to retain its share of world trade, shifting quickly to emerging =
markets, especially China. By exporting to the emerging markets, while =
importing from its neighbours, Germany has mimicked China=E2=80=99s =
strategy of exporting to the developed economies while importing from =
its neighbours. This, in brief, is the geo-economics of German =
geopolitics today.


=E2=80=9CBusiness has exerted significant influence on key elements of =
German foreign policy,=E2=80=9D says Hans Kundnani in a fascinating =
essay titled =E2=80=9CGermany as a Geo-economic Power=E2=80=9D. ( =
http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Kundnani.pdf ) According to Mr =
Kundnani, =E2=80=9CEnergy companies like E.ON Ruhrgas have influenced =
policy towards Russia; auto makers such as BMW have influenced policy =
towards China; and manufacturers of technology and machinery such as =
Siemens have influenced policy towards Iran... The concept of =
geo-economics now seems particularly helpful as a way of describing the =
foreign policy of Germany, which has become more willing to impose its =
economic preferences on others within the European Union in the context =
of a discourse of zero-sum competition between the fiscally responsible =
and the fiscally irresponsible=E2=80=9D (The Washington Quarterly, =
Summer 2011).


Thus, rather than accept a reflationary fiscal policy in the euro zone =
as the price of growth and employment generation, export-sensitive =
Germany insisted on austerity throughout the euro zone, undermining =
growth in the =E2=80=9Cperiphery=E2=80=9D and even threatening European =
unity, to ensure that it remains globally competitive. This mirrors =
China=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cbeggar-thy-neighbour=E2=80=9D strategy of the =
1990s within Asia of retaining its export competitiveness at the cost of =
its neighbours.


Kudnani believes that =E2=80=9Cin the future, we can expect Germany to =
be increasingly willing to take decisions independently of =E2=80=93 and =
sometimes in opposition to =E2=80=93 its allies and partners, as it did =
during the Libya crisis. It is likely to pursue its national interests =
=E2=80=93 defined above all else in economic terms =E2=80=93 more =
assertively than it used to, while being more reluctant to transfer =
sovereignty to multilateral institutions=E2=80=9D.


In bringing Germany to this point, after months of lying low and =
appearing at times confused, at times fussy, and at times a nit-picking =
and miserly aunt, Chancellor Merkel has emerged as the new Iron Lady of =
Europe.=20

http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-experts-commentary/merkels-moment/=20

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see our letter on:  http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html

Wir w=C3=BCnschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende. Ihr Team.

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Udo von Massenbach   -   B=C3=A4rbel Freudenberg-Pilster   -   J=C3=B6rg =
Barandat
                                           =20
UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de   Mail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de  =20
                       JoergBarandat@yahoo.de


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dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DVerdana><STRONG>Guten =
Morgen.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
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dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DVerdana><FONT=20
title=3D"http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html&#10;STRG + Klicken, =
um Verkn=C3=BCpfung zu folgen"=20
size=3D2></FONT></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><STRONG><FONT =
size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana><A =
href=3D"http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA21Ak03.html"=20
target=3D_blank>Asia Times: Saudi Arabia pivots toward=20
Asia</A></FONT></STRONG></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG>zawya/afp:</STRONG> <STRONG><A=20
href=3D"http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidANA20120125T093924ZFQS21/lok093=
930120125/India_says_still_buying_Iran_oil_despite_new_sanctions?&amp;zaw=
yaemailmarketing"=20
target=3D_blank>India says still buying Iran oil, despite new =
sanctions</A>=20
(attachment)</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
class=3Dstorytitle><STRONG></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><SPAN class=3Dtitel></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DVerdana><FONT =
size=3D2><STRONG>SZ-online</STRONG>: <A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/korruptionsvorwurf-gegen-party=
planer-schmidt-sozialarbeiter-der-deutschen-elite-1.1262852"=20
target=3D_blank><STRONG>Wulff-Glaeseker-Schmidt-Mronz-Westerwelle</STRONG=
></A>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&n=
bsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nb=
sp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
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color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
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color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
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face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
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color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><STRONG></STR=
ONG></A></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
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size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
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color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
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color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
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face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><STRONG></STR=
ONG></A></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
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face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
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face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><STRONG></STR=
ONG></A></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><STRONG></STR=
ONG></A></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
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face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
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color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
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face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><STRONG></STR=
ONG></A></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><FONT =
color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><STRONG></STR=
ONG></A></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_vonMassenbach/N17.751.6cc036"><I=
MG=20
class=3Duser-box alt=3D""=20
src=3D"https://www.xing.com/img/users/9/b/b/086ba10ed.380288_s2,2.jpg"></=
A></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></FONT>Massenbach&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<H3 style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
id=3Darticle-title><FONT=20
size=3D3>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis</FONT></H3>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><STRONG>By</STRONG> </FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.realclearworld.com/authors/?author=3DGeorge+Friedman&a=
mp;id=3D1570"><B><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman">George Friedman</FONT></B></A><BR></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
class=3Darticle_pagination align=3Dright>&nbsp;</DIV>
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<P>The United States reportedly sent a letter to Iran via multiple=20
intermediaries last week warning Tehran that any attempt to close the =
Strait of=20
Hormuz constituted a red line for Washington. The same week, a chemist=20
associated with Iran's nuclear program was killed in Tehran. In Ankara, =
Iranian=20
parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani met with Turkish officials and has =
been=20
floating hints of flexibility in negotiations over Iran's nuclear =
program.</P>
<P>This week, a routine rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers is taking =
place in=20
the Middle East, with the potential for three carrier strike groups to =
be on=20
station in the U.S. Fifth Fleet's area of operations and a fourth =
carrier strike=20
group based in Japan about a week's transit from the region. Next week, =
Gen.=20
Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will travel to =
Israel to=20
meet with senior Israeli officials. And Iran is scheduling another set =
of war=20
games in the Persian Gulf for February that will focus on the Islamic=20
Revolutionary Guard Corps' irregular tactics for closing the Strait of=20
Hormuz.</P>
<P>While tensions are escalating in the Persian Gulf, the financial =
crisis in=20
Europe has continued, with downgrades in France's credit rating the =
latest blow.=20
Meanwhile, China continued its struggle to maintain exports in the face =
of=20
economic weakness among its major customers while inflation continued to =

increase the cost of Chinese exports.</P>
<P>Fundamental changes in how Europe and China work and their long-term=20
consequences represent the major systemic shifts in the international =
system. In=20
the more immediate future, however, the U.S.-Iranian dynamic has the =
most=20
serious potential consequences for the world.</P>
<P><STRONG>The U.S.-Iranian Dynamic</STRONG></P>
<P>The increasing tensions in the region are not unexpected. As we have =
argued=20
for some time, the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the subsequent decision to =
withdraw=20
created a massive power vacuum in Iraq that Iran needed -- and was able =
-- to=20
fill. Iran and Iraq fought a brutal war in the 1980s that caused about 1 =
million=20
Iranian casualties, and Iran's fundamental national interest is assuring =
that no=20
Iraqi regime able to threaten Iranian national security re-emerges. The =
U.S.=20
invasion and withdrawal from Iraq provided Iran an opportunity to secure =
its=20
western frontier, one it could not pass on.</P>
<P>If Iran does come to have a dominant influence in Iraq -- and I don't =
mean=20
Iran turning Iraq into a satellite -- several things follow. Most =
important, the=20
status of the Arabian Peninsula is subject to change. On paper, Iran has =
the=20
most substantial conventional military force of any nation in the =
Persian Gulf.=20
Absent outside players, power on paper is not insignificant. While=20
technologically sophisticated, the military strength of the Arabian =
Peninsula=20
nations on paper is much smaller, and they lack the Iranian military's=20
ideologically committed manpower.</P>
<P>But Iran's direct military power is more the backdrop than the main =
engine of=20
Iranian power. It is the strength of Tehran's covert capabilities and =
influence=20
that makes Iran significant. Iran's covert intelligence capability is =
quite=20
good. It has spent decades building political alliances by a range of =
means, and=20
not only by nefarious methods. The Iranians have worked among the Shia, =
but not=20
exclusively so; they have built a network of influence among a range of =
classes=20
and religious and ethnic groups. And they have systematically built =
alliances=20
and relationships with significant figures to counter overt U.S. power. =
With=20
U.S. military power departing Iraq, Iran's relationships become all the =
more=20
valuable.</P>
<P>The withdrawal of U.S. forces has had a profound psychological impact =
on the=20
political elites of the Persian Gulf. Since the decline of British power =
after=20
World War II, the United States has been the guarantor of the Arabian=20
Peninsula's elites and therefore of the flow of oil from the region. The =

foundation of that guarantee has been military power, as seen in the =
response to=20
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The United States still has =
substantial=20
military power in the Persian Gulf, and its air and naval forces could =
likely=20
cope with any overt provocation by Iran.</P>
<P>But that's not how the Iranians operate. For all their rhetoric, they =
are=20
cautious in their policies. This does not mean they are passive. It =
simply means=20
that they avoid high-risk moves. They will rely on their covert =
capabilities and=20
relationships. Those relationships now exist in an environment in which =
many=20
reasonable Arab leaders see a shift in the balance of power, with the =
United=20
States growing weaker and less predictable in the region and Iran =
becoming=20
stronger. This provides fertile soil for Iranian allies to pressure =
regional=20
regimes into accommodations with Iran.</P>
<P><STRONG>The Syrian Angle</STRONG></P>
<P>Events in Syria compound this situation. The purported imminent =
collapse of=20
Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria has proved less =
imminent than=20
many in the West imagined. At the same time, the isolation of the al =
Assad=20
regime by the West -- and more important, by other Arab countries -- has =
created=20
a situation where the regime is more dependent than ever on Iran.</P>
<HR>

<P>Should the al Assad regime -- or the Syrian regime without al Assad =
--=20
survive, Iran would therefore enjoy tremendous influence with Syria, as =
well as=20
with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The current course in Iraq coupled with the =
survival=20
of an Alawite regime in Syria would create an Iranian sphere of =
influence=20
stretching from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean. This would =
represent a=20
fundamental shift in the regional balance of power and probably would =
redefine=20
Iranian relations with the Arabian Peninsula. This is obviously in =
Iran's=20
interest. It is not in the interests of the United States, however.</P>
<P>The United States has sought to head this off via a twofold response. =

Clandestinely, it has engaged in an active campaign of sabotage and=20
assassination targeting Iran's nuclear efforts. Publicly, it has created =
a=20
sanctions regime against Iran, most recently targeting Iran's oil =
exports.=20
However, the latter effort faces many challenges.</P>
<P>Japan, the No. 2 buyer of Iranian crude, has pledged its support but =
has not=20
outlined concrete plans to reduce its purchases. The Chinese and Indians =
--=20
Iran's No. 1 and 3 buyers of crude, respectively -- will continue to buy =
from=20
Iran despite increased U.S. pressure. In spite of U.S. Treasury =
Secretary=20
Timothy Geithner's visit last week, the Chinese are not prepared to =
impose=20
sanctions, and the Russians are not likely to enforce sanctions even if =
they=20
agreed to them. Turkey is unwilling to create a confrontation with Iran =
and is=20
trying to remain a vital trade conduit for the Iranians regardless of =
sanctions.=20
At the same time, while the Europeans seem prepared to participate in=20
harder-hitting sanctions on Iranian oil, they already have delayed =
action on=20
these sanctions and certainly are in no position politically or =
otherwise to=20
participate in military action. The European economic crisis is at root =
a=20
political crisis, so even if the Europeans could add significant =
military=20
weight, which they generally lack, concerted action of any sort is =
unlikely.</P>
<P>Neither, for that matter, does the United States have the ability to =
do much=20
militarily. Invading Iran is out of the question. The mountainous =
geography of=20
Iran, a nation of about 70 million people, makes direct occupation =
impossible=20
given available American forces.</P>
<P>Air operations against Iran are an option, but they could not be =
confined to=20
nuclear facilities. Iran still doesn't have nuclear weapons, and while =
nuclear=20
weapons would compound the strategic problem, the problem would still =
exist=20
without them. The center of gravity of Iran's power is the relative =
strength of=20
its conventional forces in the region. Absent those, Iran would be less =
capable=20
of wielding covert power, as the psychological matrix would shift.</P>
<P>An air campaign against Iran's conventional forces would play to =
American=20
military strengths, but it has two problems. First, it would be an =
extended=20
campaign, one lasting months. Iran's capabilities are large and =
dispersed, and=20
as seen in Desert Storm and Kosovo against weaker opponents, such =
operations=20
take a long time and are not guaranteed to be effective. Second, the =
Iranians=20
have counters. One, of course, is the Strait of Hormuz. The second is =
the use of=20
its special operations forces and allies in and out of the region to =
conduct=20
terrorist attacks. An extended air campaign coupled with terrorist =
attacks could=20
increase distrust of American power rather than increase it among U.S. =
allies,=20
to say nothing of the question of whether Washington could sustain =
political=20
support in a coalition or within the United States itself.</P>
<P><STRONG>The Covert Option</STRONG></P>
<P>The United States and Israel both have covert options as well. They =
have=20
networks of influence in the region and highly capable covert forces, =
which they=20
have said publicly that they would use to limit Iran's acquisition of =
nuclear=20
weapons without resorting to overt force. We assume, though we lack =
evidence,=20
that the assassination of the Iranian chemist associated with the =
country's=20
nuclear program last week was either a U.S. or Israeli operation or some =

combination of the two. Not only did it eliminate a scientist, it also =
bred=20
insecurity and morale problems among those working on the program. It =
also=20
signaled the region that the United States and Israel have options =
inside=20
Iran.</P>
<P>The U.S. desire to support an Iranian anti-government movement =
generally has=20
failed. Tehran showed in 2009 that it could suppress demonstrations, and =
it was=20
obvious that the demonstrators did not have the widespread support =
needed to=20
overcome such repression. Though the United States has sought to support =

internal dissidents in Iran since 1979, it has not succeeded in =
producing a=20
meaningful threat to the clerical regime. Therefore, covert operations =
are being=20
aimed directly at the nuclear program with the hope that successes there =
might=20
ripple through other, more immediately significant sectors.</P>
<P>As we have long argued, the Iranians already have a "nuclear option," =
namely,=20
the prospect of blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly =
35=20
percent of seaborne crude and 20 percent of the world's traded oil =
passes daily.=20
Doing so would hurt them, too, of course. But failing to deter an air or =
covert=20
campaign, they might choose to close off the strait. Temporarily =
disrupting the=20
flow of oil, even intermittently, could rapidly create a global economic =
crisis=20
given the fragility of the world economy.</P>
<HR>

<P>The United States does not want to see that. Washington will be =
extremely=20
cautious in its actions unless it can act with a high degree of =
assurance that=20
it can prevent such a disruption, something difficult to guarantee. It =
also will=20
restrain Israel, which might have the ability to strike at a few nuclear =

facilities but lacks the force to completely eliminate the program much =
less=20
target Iran's conventional capability and manage the consequences of =
that strike=20
in the Strait of Hormuz. Only the United States could do all that, and =
given the=20
possible consequences, it will be loathe to attempt it.</P>
<P>The United States continues, therefore, with sanctions and covert =
actions=20
while Iran continues building its covert power in Iraq and in the =
region. Each=20
will try to convince the region that its power will be supreme in a =
year. The=20
region is skeptical of both, but will have to live with one of the two, =
or with=20
an ongoing test of wills -- an unnerving prospect. Each side is seeking =
to=20
magnify its power for psychological effect without crossing a red line =
that=20
prompts the other to take extreme measures. Iran signals its willingness =
to=20
attempt to close Hormuz and its development of nuclear weapons, but it =
doesn't=20
cross the line to actually closing the strait or detonating a nuclear =
device.=20
The United States pressures Iran and moves forces around, but it doesn't =
cross=20
the red line of commencing military actions. Thus, each avoids =
triggering=20
unacceptable actions by the other.</P>
<P>The problem for the United States is that the status quo ultimately =
works=20
against it. If al Assad survives and if the situation in Iraq proceeds =
as it has=20
been proceeding, then Iran is creating a reality that will define the =
region.=20
The United States does not have a broad and effective coalition, and =
certainly=20
not one that would rally in the event of war. It has only Israel, and =
Israel is=20
as uneasy with direct military action as the United States is. It does =
not want=20
to see a failed attack and it does not want to see more instability in =
the Arab=20
world. For all its rhetoric, Israel has a weak hand to play. The only =
virtue of=20
the American hand is that it is stronger -- but only relatively =
speaking.</P>
<P>For the United States, preventing the expansion of an Iranian sphere =
of=20
influence is a primary concern. Iraq is going to be a difficult arena to =
stop=20
Iran's expansion. Syria therefore is key at present. Al Assad appears =
weak, and=20
his replacement by a Sunni government would limit -- but not destroy -- =
any=20
Iranian sphere of influence. It would be a reversal for Iran, and the =
United=20
States badly needs to apply one. But the problem is that the United =
States=20
cannot be seen as the direct agent of regime change in Syria, and al =
Assad is=20
not as weak as has been claimed. Even so, Syria is where the United =
States can=20
work to block Iran without crossing Iran's red lines.</P>
<P>The normal outcome of a situation like this one, in which neither =
Iran nor=20
the United States can afford to cross the other's red lines since the=20
consequences would be too great for each, would be some sort of =
negotiation=20
toward a longer-term accommodation. Ideology aside -- and the United =
States=20
negotiating with the "Axis of Evil" or Iran with the "Great Satan" would =
be=20
tough sells to their respective domestic audiences -- the problem with =
this is=20
that it is difficult to see what each has to offer the other. What Iran =
wants --=20
a dominant position in the region and a redefinition of how oil revenues =
are=20
allocated and distributed -- would make the United States dependent on =
Iran.=20
What the United States wants -- an Iran that does not build a sphere of=20
influence but instead remains within its borders -- would cost Iran a =
historic=20
opportunity to assert its longstanding claims.</P>
<P>We find ourselves in a situation in which neither side wants to force =
the=20
other into extreme steps and neither side is in a position to enter into =
broader=20
accommodations. And that's what makes the situation dangerous. When =
fundamental=20
issues are at stake, each side is in a position to profoundly harm the =
other if=20
pressed, and neither side is in a position to negotiate a broad =
settlement, a=20
long game of chess ensues. And in that game of chess, the possibilities =
of=20
miscalculation, of a bluff that the other side mistakes for an action, =
are very=20
real.</P>
<P>Europe and China are redefining the way the world works. But kingdoms =
run on=20
oil, as someone once said, and a lot of oil comes through Hormuz. Iran =
may or=20
may not be able to close the strait, and that reshapes Europe and China. =
The New=20
Year thus begins where we expected: at the Strait of Hormuz.</P></DIV>
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<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><EM>This analysis <A=20
href=3D"http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/iran-us-and-strait-hormuz-crisis%E=
2%80%A8%E2%80%A8">originally=20
appeared</A> on Stratfor.com.</EM></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><EM></EM>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><B>Page Printed from:=20
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/17/iran_the_us_and_the_str=
ait_of_hormuz_crisis_99847-full.html</B>=20
at January 17, 2012 - 10:10:10 AM CST <STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000></FONT></STRONG><FONT size=3D1 =
face=3DVerdana></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
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dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT size=3D1=20
face=3DArial>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=
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<FONT size=3D2><U><FONT color=3D#ff0000 face=3DVerdana>Social =
Policy</FONT></U><FONT=20
color=3D#800080> </FONT></FONT></FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT =
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<DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#ff0000 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Baerbel_FreudenbergPilster/N3.434851=
"=20
name=3DBaerbel_FreudenbergPilster><STRONG><IMG class=3Duser-photo-list=20
title=3D"B=C3=A4rbel Freudenberg-Pilster" alt=3D"B=C3=A4rbel =
Freudenberg-Pilster"=20
src=3D"https://www.xing.com/img/users/d/7/b/c0af9cfd6.7377832_s2,1.jpg"><=
/STRONG></A></FONT></FONT><FONT=20
size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#ff0000 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><FONT color=3D#800080=20
face=3DArial><STRONG>Freudenberg-Pilster&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nb=
sp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
<FONT size=3D3=20
face=3DVerdana>Wulff-Glaeseker-Schmidt-Mronz-Westerwelle</FONT></STRONG><=
/FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT size=3D3 =
face=3DVerdana><STRONG>&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px" class=3Dheader>
<H1=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 32px; MARGIN: 11px 0px 0px; BORDER-TOP: #999 1px =
solid; PADDING-TOP: 19px"><STRONG=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 12.96pt; DISPLAY: block"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.8pt"=20
color=3D#333333 face=3DArial>Korruptionsvorwurf gegen Wulffs Partyplaner =

</FONT></STRONG><STRONG style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 12.96pt; DISPLAY: =
block"><FONT=20
color=3D#333333 face=3DArial></FONT></STRONG><FONT size=3D3>Manfred =
Schmidt,=20
"Sozialarbeiter" der deutschen Elite</FONT></H1>
<P style=3D"MARGIN: 15px 0px" class=3Dupdated><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 9pt" color=3D#999999><STRONG>20.01.2012,=20
13:23</STRONG></FONT></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px" class=3D"body entry-content">
<ADDRESS class=3Dauthor><FONT face=3DArial>Von <SPAN class=3D"hcard =
fn">Thorsten=20
Denkler, Berlin</SPAN></FONT></ADDRESS>
<ADDRESS class=3Dauthor><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
class=3D"hcard fn"></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</ADDRESS>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px" =
class=3Dentry-summary><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt" =
color=3D#000000><STRONG>Aus dem=20
Aff=C3=A4ren-Dickicht des Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten lugt immer wieder ein =
Mann hervor:=20
Manfred Schmidt. Er ist der Partyk=C3=B6nig f=C3=BCr die politische und =
wirtschaftliche=20
Elite des Landes. Jetzt ist er wegen Bestechungsverdachts ins Visier der =

Staatsanwaltschaft geraten. Einer seiner engsten Gesch=C3=A4ftspartner: =
Michael=20
Mronz, der Mann von Au=C3=9Fenminister Guido =
Westerwelle.</STRONG></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Er sei ein =
"Sozialarbeiter auf=20
anderem Level", hat er mal =C3=BCber sich selbst gesagt. Ein =
Menschenfischer sei er,=20
sagen jene, die ihn gut kennen. Sie meinen es nicht despektierlich. Eher =

anerkennend. Gemeint ist: </FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Manfred_Schmidt"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Manfred=20
Schmidt</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt">,=20
Deutschlands Partyk=C3=B6nig f=C3=BCr die politische und wirtschaftliche =
Elite des=20
Landes.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Wo er einl=C3=A4dt, da =
kommen sie alle.=20
Christian Wulff, Guido Westerwelle, RWE-Chef J=C3=BCrgen Grossmann, =
G=C3=BCnther=20
Oettinger, Cem =C3=96zdemir, Peer Steinbr=C3=BCck. Die Liste lie=C3=9Fe =
sich beliebig=20
fortsetzen. Schmidt kennt sie alle, alle kennen ihn. Partei- und=20
branchen=C3=BCbergreifend. Mehr als 20.000 Kontakte soll er in seiner =
Datenbank=20
haben. Wer die private Handynummer eines A-Prominenten in Deutschland =
sucht -=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Manfred_Schmidt"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Manfred=20
Schmidt</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial> hat sie. Auch die von </FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Bundespr%C3%A4sident"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Bundespr=C3=A4sident</FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> Christian Wulff und dessen Ex-Sprecher Olaf =

Glaeseker.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Nach Wulffs =
gl=C3=BCcklicher Wahl zum=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Bundespr%C3%A4sident"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten</FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> lud Schmidt das frisch gek=C3=BCrte =
Staatsoberhaupt und=20
seine Gefolgschaft zur Siegesfeier in seine Nobelresidenz am Pariser =
Platz. Mit=20
Blick auf das Brandenburger Tor wurde auf eine gro=C3=9Fe Zukunft=20
angesto=C3=9Fen.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px"><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
color=3D#000000 size=3D3>Von=20
Maschmeyer bis R=C3=B6sler</FONT></FONT></H3>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Jetzt steht Schmidt unter =

Bestechungsverdacht. Schmidt soll Glaeseker einen kostenlosen Urlaub in =
seiner=20
spanischer Finca erm=C3=B6glicht haben. Und zwar im Gegenzug daf=C3=BCr, =
dass Glaeseker=20
sich pers=C3=B6nlich daf=C3=BCr eingesetzt haben soll, Schmidts =
Veranstaltung=20
"Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog" zu einem Erfolg zu machen. Am Donnerstag hat die=20
Staatsanwaltschaft </FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Hannover"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Hannover</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial> Immobilien von =
Schmidt in=20
Wunstorf bei </FONT><A =
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Hannover"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Hannover</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">, Berlin und der Schweiz sowie die =
Privatr=C3=A4ume von=20
Glaeseker durchsuchen lassen.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Der Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog =
(Untertitel:=20
"Zwei L=C3=A4nder - ein Abend") geh=C3=B6rte zu den Glanzlichtern in =
Schmidts Programm.=20
Zuletzt am 11. Dezember 2009 im Terminal C des Flughafens Hannover. =
Schirmherren=20
der Veranstaltung: </FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Christian_Wulff"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Christian Wulff</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">, damals Ministerpr=C3=A4sident in =
Niedersachen, und dessen=20
baden-w=C3=BCrttembergischer Amtskollege G=C3=BCnther Oettinger, heute =
Energiekommissar in=20
Br=C3=BCssel. Wulff lobte das Projekt damals mit den Worten: "Der =
Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog=20
steht f=C3=BCr gegenseitige Wertsch=C3=A4tzung, f=C3=BCr miteinander =
statt=20
gegeneinander."</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Auf der Teilnehmerliste =
stand das Who=20
is Who der hannoverschen Maschsee-Connection: Wulffs Freund und =
AWD-Gr=C3=BCnder=20
Carsten Maschmeyer, Ex-Air-Berlin-Chef Joachim Hunold, mit dem Wulff =
durch die=20
Upgrade-Aff=C3=A4re verbunden bleiben sollte. Martin Winterkorn f=C3=BCr =
VW und Michael=20
Macht f=C3=BCr Porsche. Der heutige FDP-Chef </FONT></FONT><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Philipp_R%C3%B6sler"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Philipp R=C3=B6sler</FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> schaute als damaliger =
Bundesgesundheitsminister=20
vorbei und auch TUI-Chef Michael Frenzel war =
dabei.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px"><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 9.6pt"=20
color=3D#000000></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;</H3>
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px"><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
color=3D#000000=20
size=3D3>685.000 Euro Einnahmen</FONT></FONT></H3>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt"></FONT></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;</P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Die Veranstaltung war ein =
lohnendes=20
Gesch=C3=A4ft - auch f=C3=BCr Schmidt. Angeblich soll er von den =
Sponsoren 685.000=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Euro"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Euro</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial> eingenommen, die Sause =
aber nur=20
300.000 </FONT><A href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Euro"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Euro</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> gekostet haben.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt" color=3D#000000>Billiger wurde es auch =
deshalb, weil=20
Olaf Glaeseker offenbar f=C3=BCr praktische Hilfe sorgte. Er soll sich=20
h=C3=B6chstpers=C3=B6nlich um einen Teil des Servicepersonals zur =
Bewirtung der knapp 900=20
G=C3=A4ste gek=C3=BCmmert haben. Ein paar pers=C3=B6nliche Anrufe bei =
der landeseigenen=20
Medizinischen Hochschule Hannover (MMH) sollen gereicht =
haben.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt" color=3D#000000>Die MHH verf=C3=BCgt =
=C3=BCber ein hauseigenes=20
Veranstaltungsmangement. Im Glauben, es handele sich um eine =
Veranstaltung des=20
Landes Niedersachen, schickte sie nach eigenen Angaben 44 studentische=20
Hilfskr=C3=A4fte, die daf=C3=BCr sorgten, das Politiker und Unternehmer =
umsorgt wurden.=20
Ein Sprecher der MHH best=C3=A4tigte der SZ einen entsprechenden Bericht =
der <I>Neuen=20
Presse</I>.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt" color=3D#000000>Zur Begr=C3=BCndung =
hie=C3=9F es auch, in=20
Glaeseker habe schlie=C3=9Flich die rechte Hand des =
Ministerpr=C3=A4sidenten um Hilfe=20
gebeten. Stutzig sei die Hochschule erst geworden, als die Staatskanzlei =
sich=20
geweigert habe, die Rechnung =C3=BCber knapp 5000 Euro zu bezahlen und =
in=20
Medienberichten Manfred Schmidt als allein Verantwortlicher genannt =
worden=20
sei.</FONT></FONT></P>
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px" class=3Dmultipe-page-heading><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D3>Woran der zweite =
"L=C3=A4nderdialog"=20
scheiterte</FONT></FONT></H3>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px" =
class=3Dmultipe-page-heading>&nbsp;</DIV>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Kurz vor Weihnachten 2011 =
hatte=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Bundespr%C3%A4sident"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Bundespr=C3=A4sident</FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> Wulff seinen Sprecher Glaeseker ohne Angabe =
von=20
Gr=C3=BCnden =C3=BCberraschend entlassen. Es wird angenommen, dass =
Journalisten-Anfragen=20
im Bundespr=C3=A4sidialamt zur Rolle Glaesekers bei der Organisation des =

Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialogs den Sprecher unter Druck gesetzt hatten. F=C3=BCr =
Wulff war=20
Glaeseker nicht l=C3=A4nger haltbar.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Wenn jetzt das =
Gesch=C3=A4ftsgebaren von=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Manfred_Schmidt"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Manfred=20
Schmidt</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial> in den Mittelpunkt r=C3=BCckt, =
k=C3=B6nnte das auch=20
f=C3=BCr andere ein Grund sein, =C3=BCber ihre Gesch=C3=A4ftsbeziehungen =
mit Schmidt=20
nachzudenken. Etwa der Lebensgef=C3=A4hrte von Au=C3=9Fenminister =
</FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Guido_Westerwelle"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Guido=20
Westerwelle</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">.=20
Der Sporteventmanager Michael Mronz hat nach Recherchen der SZ seit 2009 =
engen=20
Kontakt zu Schmidt.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt" color=3D#000000>Beide hatten nach dem =
Vorbild des=20
Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialoges einen "L=C3=A4nderdialog" zwischen Bayern und =
Nordrhein-Westfalen=20
ins Leben rufen wollen. Die Party sollte am 9. M=C3=A4rz 2010 im =
D=C3=BCsseldorfer=20
Flughafen stattfinden. Schirmherren: die Ministerpr=C3=A4sidenten Horst =
Seehofer und=20
J=C3=BCrgen R=C3=BCttgers.</FONT></FONT></P>
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px"><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
color=3D#000000=20
size=3D3>Verr=C3=A4terische Pr=C3=A4sentationsmappe</FONT></FONT></H3>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px">&nbsp;</DIV>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt" color=3D#000000>Alles war vorbereitet. Doch =
J=C3=BCrgen=20
R=C3=BCttgers, gebeutelt von diversen Sponsoring-Aff=C3=A4ren, lie=C3=9F =
den Termin kurzfristig=20
platzen. Wenige Wochen sp=C3=A4ter wurde er =
abgew=C3=A4hlt.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Westerwelles Mann =
</FONT></FONT><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Michael_Mronz"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Michael=20
Mronz</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial> und Schmidt bestritten damals auf =
Anfrage der=20
SZ, dass der L=C3=A4nderdialog ein gemeinsames Unternehmens gewesen sei. =
"Alleiniger=20
Gastgeber und Veranstalter der Reihe 'L=C3=A4nderdialog' ist die =
</FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Manfred_Schmidt"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Manfred=20
Schmidt</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt"> Media=20
S.L.", lie=C3=9F Schmidt schriftlich mitteilen. Michael Mronz =
erkl=C3=A4rte =C3=BCber einen=20
Sprecher seines Unternehmens, der MMP Veranstaltungs- und Vermarktungs =
GmbH mit=20
Sitz in K=C3=B6ln: "Nein, MMP war nicht Gastgeber des =
'L=C3=A4nderdialoges Bayern=20
Nordrhein-Westfalen'."</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Die damalige =
Pr=C3=A4sentationsmappe f=C3=BCr=20
potentielle Sponsoren, die der SZ vorliegt, legt Gegenteiliges nahe. =
Dort ist=20
auf der Seite "Fakten" unter dem Stichwort "Gastgeber" zu lesen: =
"Manfred=20
Schmidt Media S.L. und </FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Michael_Mronz"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Michael=20
Mronz</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt">=20
Promotion."</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px"><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
color=3D#000000=20
size=3D3>Schmidts und Mronz' gemeinsames Projekt</FONT></FONT></H3>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px 0px 4px">&nbsp;</DIV>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Branchenkenner vermuten, =
dass Mronz=20
die Prominenz seines Gatten </FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Guido_Westerwelle"><FONT =
face=3DArial>Guido=20
Westerwelle</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">=20
nutzen will, um sich neben dem Sporteventmarketing ein neues Standbein =
zu=20
erarbeiten. Und zwar an der Nahtstelle von Politik und Wirtschaft. =
Manfred=20
Schmidt hat ihm da einige T=C3=BCren ge=C3=B6ffnet. Einige Jahre =
organisierten Mronz und=20
Schmidt gemeinsam die j=C3=A4hrliche Vodafone Night in der Berliner =
Edel-Unterkunft=20
Hotel de Rome. Zuletzt, Anfang September 2011, zeichnete Mronz allein=20
verantwortlich - Schmidt kam als Gast.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Auch hier versammeln sich =
gerne=20
illustre G=C3=A4ste aus Politik, Wirtschaft, Sport und Showbusiness. =
Eiskunstl=C3=A4uferin=20
Katarina Witt trifft auf Formel-1-Star Lewis Hamilton. Vizekanzler=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Philipp_R%C3%B6sler"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Philipp R=C3=B6sler</FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> auf Bl=C3=B6del-Comedian Oliver Pocher. =
Gerne gesehen sind=20
Au=C3=9Fenminister Westerwelle (der im September jedoch nicht erschien), =

Bundesminister Dirk Niebel, Bundestagspr=C3=A4sident Norbert Lammert und =
Berlins=20
Regierender B=C3=BCrgermeister Klaus Wowereit.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 15.75pt; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt">Wenn jetzt Manfred =
Schmidt wegen=20
Bestechungsvorw=C3=BCrfen in das Visier der Staatsanwaltschaft =
ger=C3=A4t, k=C3=B6nnte die=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"><A=20
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/thema/Aff%C3%A4re"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Aff=C3=A4re</FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt"> schnell gr=C3=B6=C3=9Fere Kreise des =
Politbetriebes erfassen.=20
Vielleicht sollte sich Westerwelle von seinem Mann Mronz mal etwas =
genauer=20
dessen Gesch=C3=A4ftskontakt zu Schmidt erkl=C3=A4ren lassen. Schaden =
kann das sicherlich=20
nicht.</FONT></FONT></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px" class=3Dfooter>
<DL style=3D"MARGIN: 0px">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 84px; FLOAT: left; CLEAR: left"><FONT =

  face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt"=20
  color=3D#999999><STRONG>URL:</STRONG></FONT></FONT>=20
  <DD style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/korruptionsvorwurf-gegen-party=
planer-schmidt-sozialarbeiter-der-deutschen-elite-1.1262852"><FONT=20
  face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
8.5pt">http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/korruptionsvorwurf-gegen-partyp=
laner-schmidt-sozialarbeiter-der-deutschen-elite-1.1262852</FONT></FONT><=
/A></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px">&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"MARGIN: =
0px">********************************************************************=
************************************************</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px">&nbsp;</DIV>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"=20
class=3Dabstract><FONT face=3DGeorgia><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 15.6pt"=20
color=3D#2f6dac><STRONG>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
Pr=C3=A4sident Wulff, gelebte staatspolitische=20
Schizophrenie</STRONG></FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"=20
class=3Dabstract>Autor: Claus Christian Malzahn</P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 17px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"=20
class=3Dabstract><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
9.6pt">Hier der=20
Pr=C3=A4sident, da die Person. Das Dilemma kann nur Wulff aufl=C3=B6sen. =
Ein=20
Staatsoberhaupt, dem die W=C3=BCrde des Sprechamtes entgleitet, braucht =
kein B=C3=BCrger=20
dieser Republik.</FONT></FONT></P>
<SCRIPT type=3Dtext/javascript></SCRIPT>

<DIV=20
style=3D"POSITION: relative; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; =
PADDING-TOP: 0px"=20
class=3D"text paddingTop443">
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Amigo-Urlaub und =
Gratisfl=C3=BCge.=20
Vetternwirtschaft als Party-Event. Spezis und Spezialkredite. Bobbycars =
und=20
kleine Karos. Sie k=C3=B6nnen das alles nicht mehr h=C3=B6ren? Ich auch =
nicht. Mit jedem=20
neuen Detail, das in der Causa Wulff und Co. in den vergangenen Wochen=20
freigelegt worden ist, steigt der Reflex zum Schulternzucken. =
</FONT></FONT></P>
<DIV=20
style=3D"POSITION: absolute; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 498px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline; TOP: 0px; LEFT: 0px"=20
class=3Daufmacher></DIV>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Man gew=C3=B6hnt sich =
schlie=C3=9Flich an alles,=20
warum nicht auch an einen </FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
8.4pt"><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/themen/Bundespr=C3=A4sident/" =
target=3D_blank><FONT=20
color=3D#990000><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none"=20
face=3DArial>Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten</FONT></FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">, von dem inzwischen mehr als zwei Drittel =
der=20
Deutschen annehmen, er k=C3=B6nne sein Amt kaum noch angemessen =
aus=C3=BCben? Wir haben=20
uns ja auch an einen Au=C3=9Fenminister gew=C3=B6hnt, mit dem viel in =
Verbindung gebracht=20
wird =E2=80=93 blo=C3=9F keine sichtbare Au=C3=9Fenpolitik. =
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline">
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 13px 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 9pt">Zuh=C3=B6rer sollen das Amt vom Inhaber =
unterscheiden=20
</FONT></FONT></H3>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Christian Wulff ist nach =
wie vor im=20
Amt und offenbar wild entschlossen, es zu bleiben. Die Tatsache, dass =
vor=20
wenigen Tagen Beamte des nieders=C3=A4chsischen Landeskriminalamtes das =
Wohnhaus=20
seines langj=C3=A4hrigen Vertrauten Olaf Glaeseker durchsuchten, um =
kistenweise=20
vermeintliches Beweismaterial herauszutragen, hat daran nichts =
ge=C3=A4ndert. Es=20
bestehe ein =E2=80=9Equalifizierter Anfangsverdacht=E2=80=9C auf =
Bestechlichkeit, hie=C3=9F es dazu=20
am Donnerstag. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Am Tag darauf hielt der=20
Bundespr=C3=A4sident eine rechtschaffene </FONT></FONT><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt"><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"=20
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13824809/Wulff-nenn=
t-Wannsee-Ort-deutscher-Schande.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT color=3D#990000><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: =
none"=20
face=3DArial>Rede zum 70. Jahrestag der=20
Wannseekonferenz</FONT></FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">, einem der dunkelsten Daten der deutschen =
Geschichte.=20
Allein dieser Zusammenhang ist eine moralische und politische Zumutung: =
Da steht=20
der Pr=C3=A4sident und zugleich der Mann, der zwischen privaten =
Interessen und=20
politischen Aufgaben nicht trennen wollte. Der Zuh=C3=B6rer aber soll =
das Amt nun=20
aber vom Inhaber unterscheiden. Das wird nicht funktionieren. =
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline">
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 13px 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 9pt">Kalkulationen im politischen Berlin =
</FONT></FONT></H3>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">W=C3=A4hrend sich nun auch =

</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt"><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13823545/LKA-durchs=
ucht-Raeume-von-Wulffs-Ex-Sprecher.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT color=3D#990000><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: =
none"=20
face=3DArial>Staatsanw=C3=A4lte eingehend mit dem anr=C3=BCchigen System =
Wulff-Glaseker=20
besch=C3=A4ftigen</FONT></FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">, wird der Bundespr=C3=A4sident bei Reden, =
Reisen und=20
Empf=C3=A4ngen den Eindruck erwecken, er h=C3=A4tte mit diesem Menschen =
namens Christian=20
Wulff gar nichts zu tun. Es ginge sicher zu weit, dem Staatsoberhaupt zu =

unterstellen, dass er solche Termine bewusst einsetzen w=C3=BCrde, um =
von den=20
Vorw=C3=BCrfen abzulenken. Aber es w=C3=A4re andererseits auch sehr =
naiv, zu glauben, dass=20
solche Kalkulationen im politischen Berlin keine Rolle spielen =
w=C3=BCrden.=20
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Schon Anfang des Jahres, =
als der=20
Bundespr=C3=A4sident vor Mitarbeitern die Durchhalteparole ausgab, in =
einem Jahr sei=20
das alles l=C3=A4ngst vergessen, wurden in der Union entsprechende =
Planspiele=20
diskutiert. Wenn der angeschlagene Wulff im Februar erst einmal die=20
Hinterbliebenen der Nazi-Mordopfer empfange, dann werde der =
nervt=C3=B6tende=20
Bocksgesang seiner Kritiker wieder abschwellen. Erb=C3=A4rmlicher geht =
es kaum.=20
Allein die Idee, dass man aus dem uns=C3=A4glichen Leid von =
Hinterbliebenen einen=20
moralischen Palisadenzaun schnitzen k=C3=B6nne, an dem spitze Fragen =
zersplittern wie=20
Pfeile, ist an Zynismus kaum zu =C3=BCberbieten. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline">
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 13px 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 9pt">Mit jedem Vorwurf schrumpft die Autorit=C3=A4t=20
</FONT></FONT></H3>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Hier der Pr=C3=A4sident, =
da die Person: Nur=20
</FONT></FONT><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt"><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/themen/Christian Wulff/" =
target=3D_blank><FONT=20
color=3D#990000><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" =
face=3DArial>Christian=20
Wulff</FONT></FONT></A></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">=20
kann dieses Dilemma aufl=C3=B6sen =E2=80=93 indem er sein Amt zur =
Verf=C3=BCgung stellt. Oder er=20
macht das Dilemma zum Prinzip seiner Pr=C3=A4sidentschaft. Das w=C3=A4re =
dann gelebte=20
staatspolitische Schizophrenie. Denn mit jedem neuen Vorwurf schrumpft =
die=20
Autorit=C3=A4t des Mannes, der das h=C3=B6chste Staatsamt bekleidet. =
Medien und=20
Staatsanwaltschaft werden ihre Arbeit jedenfalls nicht einstellen, damit =
ein=20
angeschlagener Bundespr=C3=A4sident aus parteitaktischen Gr=C3=BCnden im =
Amt gehalten=20
werden kann. </FONT></FONT></P>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d9da 1px solid; POSITION: relative; =
PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fff; MARGIN: 15px 0px; =
PADDING-LEFT: 7px; DISPLAY: none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; =
BORDER-TOP: #d8d9da 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 7px"=20
id=3DimageGalleryBig13776850 class=3D"clear module imageGalleryBig =
bgColor1">
<UL=20
style=3D"LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: none; FLOAT: =
right; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"floatRight browse inline">
  <LI=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; =
BACKGROUND-POSITION: 0px -445px; FLOAT: left; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; =
PADDING-TOP: 5px"=20
  class=3Dcounter><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline" class=3Dcurrent><FONT=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt">1</FONT></SPAN><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
6.9pt"> von=20
  </FONT><SPAN style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline" =
class=3Dlast><FONT=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt">33</FONT></SPAN></FONT> </LI>
  <LI=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: -1px 0px 0px 7px; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; =
BACKGROUND-POSITION: 0px -445px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 28px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DbrowseBack><A=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-IMAGE: =
url(http://www.welt.de/images/layout/sprite.gif); MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: =
26px; DISPLAY: block; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; BACKGROUND-POSITION: =
left -651px; HEIGHT: 27px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  href=3D"http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article13827053/#"><SPAN =

  style=3D"POSITION: absolute; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 0px; HEIGHT: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden; TOP: -1000px; LEFT: -1000px" =

  class=3Dubar><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt" =
color=3D#2f6dac><FONT=20
  style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none">zur=C3=BCck =
bl=C3=A4ttern</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></A>=20
  </LI>
  <LI=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: -1px 0px 0px 7px; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; =
BACKGROUND-POSITION: 0px -445px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 28px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DbrowseNext><A=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-IMAGE: =
url(http://www.welt.de/images/layout/sprite.gif); MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: =
32px; DISPLAY: block; BACKGROUND-REPEAT: no-repeat; BACKGROUND-POSITION: =
left -805px; HEIGHT: 32px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  href=3D"http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article13827053/#"><SPAN =

  style=3D"POSITION: absolute; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 0px; HEIGHT: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden; TOP: -1000px; LEFT: -1000px" =

  class=3Dubar><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt" =
color=3D#2f6dac><FONT=20
  style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none">weiter=20
  bl=C3=A4ttern</FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></A></LI></UL>
<DIV=20
style=3D"PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 7px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline; PADDING-TOP: 4px"=20
class=3DfotoGalleryH3><FONT face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
9pt"><STRONG>Kritik=20
an Bundespr=C3=A4sident Christian Wulff</STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; CLEAR: =
both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3DWulff alt=3DWulff=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01551/mcz_wulff_BM_Bayer_155=
1320p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: Getty Images/Getty</FONT></SPAN><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> Chronik der =
Aff=C3=A4ren des=20
  Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten:</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff6_BM__153=
1430p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: REUTERS</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 13. Dezember: =
Gegen Wulff=20
  taucht in der "Bild"-Zeitung erstmals der Verdacht auf, als =
Ministerpr=C3=A4sident=20
  von Niedersachsen den Landtag get=C3=A4uscht zu haben. Dabei geht es =
um einen=20
  privaten Kreditvertrag =C3=BCber 500.000 Euro zum Kauf eines =
Eigenheims,=20
  ...</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Ehepaar Geerkens" alt=3D"Ehepaar Geerkens"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01527/fsc_Geerkens_BM_Ba_152=
7872p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> ... den Wulff =
und seine=20
  Frau Bettina nach seinen Angaben mit der Ehefrau des Osnabr=C3=BCcker =
Unternehmers=20
  Egon Geerkens (l.) geschlossen hatten. Die Gr=C3=BCnen im Landtag =
hatten im Februar=20
  2010 nach gesch=C3=A4ftlichen Beziehungen zwischen Wulff und dem =
Unternehmer=20
  gefragt, die Wulff damals verneinte. =C3=9Cber seinen Sprecher =
l=C3=A4sst der=20
  Bundespr=C3=A4sident mitteilen, die damalige Anfrage sei "korrekt =
beantwortet"=20
  worden.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff7_BM__153=
1446p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 14. Dezember:=20
  Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) stellt sich erstmals hinter Wulff =
und=20
  spricht ihm "volles Vertrauen" aus. Zugleich werden neue Details =
=C3=BCber Kontakte=20
  Wulffs zum Unternehmerehepaar Geerkens bekannt. Wulff soll laut=20
  Medienberichten die Hilfe der Geerkens auch in Anspruch genommen, als =
er den=20
  Privat- durch einen Bankkredit abl=C3=B6ste. Zudem soll Egon Geerkens =
2008 und 2009=20
  insgesamt dreimal einer Wirtschaftsdelegation Wulffs angeh=C3=B6rt=20
  haben.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff_BM_B_153=
1413p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 15. Dezember: =
Wulff=20
  erkl=C3=A4rt offiziell sein Bedauern, dass durch den Privatkredit ein =
"falscher=20
  Eindruck" entstanden sei. Er betont zugleich, "in der Sache hatte und =
habe ich=20
  nichts zu verbergen".</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff8_BM__153=
1462p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 16. Dezember: =
Gegen=C3=BCber=20
  dem "Spiegel" r=C3=A4umte Egon Geerkens ein, er sei an den =
Kreditverhandlungen=20
  ma=C3=9Fgeblich beteiligt gewesen. Wulffs und Geerkens' Anw=C3=A4lte =
bekr=C3=A4ftigten=20
  allerdings, der Kreditvertrag sei mit Geerkens' Frau Edith geschlossen =

  worden.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff3_BM__153=
1427p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 17. Dezember: =
Die=20
  Opposition versch=C3=A4rft ihre Kritik an Wulff und fordert ihn auf, =
alle offenen=20
  Fragen zu seiner Beziehung zum Unternehmer Geerkens zu kl=C3=A4ren.=20
  Verfassungsrechtler =C3=A4u=C3=9Fern die Vermutung, Wulff habe mit der =
Annahme des=20
  Kredits wom=C3=B6glich das Gesetz =
gebrochen.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff4_BM__153=
1428p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 18. Dezember: =
Wulff weist=20
  indirekt erneut Kritik an seinem Privatkredit zur=C3=BCck. Dem Sender =
MDR Info sagt=20
  er, er k=C3=B6nne sein Handeln verantworten. Zugleich r=C3=A4umt der =
Bundespr=C3=A4sident=20
  insgesamt sechs Urlaube in Anwesen befreundeter Unternehmer ein. Aus =
einer=20
  =C3=BCber seine Bonner Kanzlei vorgelegten Liste geht hervor, dass er =
seit 2003=20
  drei Mal einen Privaturlaub in H=C3=A4usern des Unternehmerpaares =
Geerkens=20
  verbrachte. 2008 und 2009 waren die Wulffs demnach au=C3=9Ferdem beim =
Hannoveraner=20
  Finanzunternehmer Wolf-Dieter Baumgartl in Italien und dem =
Unternehmer-Ehepaar=20
  Angela Solaro und Volker Meyer auf Norderney zu=20
Gast.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff9_BM__153=
1463p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 19. Dezember: =
Merkel gibt=20
  Wulff demonstrativ R=C3=BCckendeckung und spricht ihm erneut "vollstes =
Vertrauen"=20
  aus. Zugleich gibt es neue Enth=C3=BCllungen =C3=BCber private =
Geldgeber in Wulffs=20
  Freundeskreis.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff2_BM__153=
1412p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> Laut "Bild" =
wurden=20
  Zeitungsanzeigen, mit denen im Herbst 2007 w=C3=A4hrend des =
nieders=C3=A4chsischen=20
  Landtagswahlkampfs f=C3=BCr das Christian-Wulff-Buch "Besser die =
Wahrheit" geworben=20
  wurde, von dessen Unternehmerfreund Carsten Maschmeyer bezahlt. Wulff =
l=C3=A4sst=20
  =C3=BCber seinen Anwalt erkl=C3=A4ren, ihm sei von den Zahlungen =
nichts bekannt=20
  gewesen.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01531/jm_biga_wulff10_BM_153=
1467p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 20. Dezember: =
Wulffs=20
  Anwalt betont, sein Mandant habe von den Zahlungen nichts gewusst. Die =
Sitzung=20
  des =C3=84ltestenrats im Landtag in Hannover, auf der eine gemeinsame =
Linie zur=20
  Kl=C3=A4rung der Vorw=C3=BCrfe gegen Wulff gefunden werden sollte, =
endet nach kurzer=20
  Zeit im Streit zwischen Regierung und =
Opposition.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01532/mcz_wulff1_BM_Baye_153=
2008p.jpg"=20
  width=3D482 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 21. Dezember: =
"Welt=20
  Online" zitiert Wulffs Anwalt, dass Egon Geerkens an den Verhandlungen =
=C3=BCber=20
  den Kredit beteiligt gewesen sei. "Die Modalit=C3=A4ten wurden =
gemeinsam=20
  besprochen, das Darlehen von Frau Edith Geerkens gew=C3=A4hrt", =
hei=C3=9Ft es in einer=20
  Stellungnahme. Angesichts wachsenden Drucks auf Wulff fordern =
f=C3=BChrende=20
  Mitglieder aus CDU und FDP ein Ende der =
Debatte.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01533/jm_wulff1_BM_Bayer_153=
3112p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 22. Dezember: =
Der=20
  Bundespr=C3=A4sident nimmt erstmals pers=C3=B6nlich Stellung und =
entschuldigt sich=20
  =C3=B6ffentlich. Vor Journalisten sagt Wulff, er bedauere die =
Irritationen und=20
  nehme die Vorw=C3=BCrfe ernst. Jedoch habe er alle notwendigen =
Ausk=C3=BCnfte erteilt.=20
  Die B=C3=BCrger bittet er um Vertrauen f=C3=BCr seine k=C3=BCnftige =
Arbeit. Zuvor hatte Wulff=20
  seinen Sprecher und langj=C3=A4hrigen Vertrauten Olaf Glaeseker =
entlassen. "Der=20
  Spiegel" berichtet, Wulff habe den Kredit =E2=80=93 nach der =
Abl=C3=B6sung des Darlehens=20
  beim Unternehmerpaar Geerkens =E2=80=93 bei der BW-Bank zu auffallend =
g=C3=BCnstigen=20
  Konditionen erhalten.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Christian Wulff" alt=3D"Christian Wulff"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01534/smb_wulff_DW_Polit_153=
4963p.jpg"=20
  width=3D482 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: Getty Images</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 27. Dezember: =
Ein=20
  Aufsichtsratsmitglied der BW-Bank fordert Aufkl=C3=A4rung =C3=BCber =
den Kredit, =C3=BCber den=20
  das Gremium laut einem Bericht der "Bild"-Zeitung nicht informiert =
war. Zuvor=20
  hatte die "Welt am Sonntag" berichtet, dass der neue Kredit zum =
=C3=BCblichen=20
  Zinssatz offenbar erst ab Januar 2012 =
beginnt.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Christian Wulff" alt=3D"Christian Wulff"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01537/smb_wulff_DW_Polit_153=
7149p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 30. Dezember: =
Der=20
  Staatsrechtler Hans Herbert von Arnim schreibt in einer Analyse, die =
der "Welt=20
  am Sonntag" vorliegt, er halte Ermittlungen gegen Wulff f=C3=BCr=20
  "unausweichlich".</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01537/smb_wulff_DW_Polit_153=
7964p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 1. Januar 2012: =
Wulff=20
  soll versucht haben, die Ver=C3=B6ffentlichung von Berichten =C3=BCber =
seinen=20
  Privatkredit zu verhindern. Die "Frankfurter Allgemeine =
Sonntagszeitung"=20
  schrieb, Wulff habe sich auf Diekmanns Mailbox dar=C3=BCber beschwert, =
dass "Bild"=20
  eine "unglaubliche" Geschichte =C3=BCber ihn plane. Der Pr=C3=A4sident =
habe den=20
  "endg=C3=BCltigen Bruch" mit dem Springer-Verlag angedroht, falls der =
Bericht=20
  tats=C3=A4chlich erscheine.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01538/bild_pk_BM_Bayern__153=
8635p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 2. Januar: Der=20
  Medienkonzern Axel Springer, hier "Bild"-Chef Diekmann (l.) und=20
  Vorstandsvorsitzender D=C3=B6pfner, best=C3=A4tigt den Drohanruf des=20
  Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01538/jm_oppermann_BM_Ba_153=
8870p.jpg"=20
  width=3D482 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 3. Januar: Die =
SPD=20
  erkl=C3=A4rt die politische Schonfrist f=C3=BCr Bundespr=C3=A4sident =
Christian Wulff f=C3=BCr=20
  beendet. "Wulff hatte drei Wochen Zeit die Vorw=C3=BCrfe zu =
entkr=C3=A4ften. Das ist ihm=20
  nicht gelungen", sagt Fraktionsgesch=C3=A4ftsf=C3=BChrer Thomas =
Oppermann. "Kein=20
  Bundespr=C3=A4sident steht =C3=BCber Recht und Gesetz. Das gilt auch =
f=C3=BCr die=20
  Pressefreiheit."</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Christian Wulff" alt=3D"Christian Wulff"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01540/christian_pk_BM_Ba_154=
0914p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 4. Januar: =
Wulff meldet=20
  sich in einem Fernseh-Interview zu Wort. Er gibt Fehler bei seiner =
Amtsf=C3=BChrung=20
  zu, lehnt einen R=C3=BCcktritt aber weiter =
ab.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01541/jm_bild_BM_Bayern__154=
1423p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 5. Januar: Die=20
  "Bild"-Zeitung bittet Wulff, die umstrittene Mailbox-Nachricht =
ver=C3=B6ffentlichen=20
  zu d=C3=BCrfen. Dieser lehnt ab. "Die in einer =
au=C3=9Fergew=C3=B6hnlich emotionalen=20
  Situation gesprochenen Worte waren ausschlie=C3=9Flich f=C3=BCr Sie =
und f=C3=BCr sonst=20
  niemanden bestimmt", erkl=C3=A4rt er in einem=20
Schreiben.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01541/jm_wulff_BM_Bayern_154=
1424p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 6. Januar: =
R=C3=BCckhalt f=C3=BCr=20
  den Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten: Wulff =C3=BCberzeugt die B=C3=BCrger mit =
seinem Auftreten im=20
  TV-Interview zur Kredit- und Medienaff=C3=A4re nicht =E2=80=93 eine =
Mehrheit will ihm aber=20
  eine zweite Chance geben. Die "Bild" l=C3=A4sst Wulff eine Abschrift =
seiner=20
  Mailbox-Nachricht zukommen =E2=80=93 damit er sich nicht nur auf seine =
Erinnerung=20
  st=C3=BCtzen m=C3=BCsse.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01542/jm_gabriel_BM_Baye_154=
2007p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: picture-alliance / Sven=20
  Simon/picture-alliance</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 7. Januar: =
SPD-Chef=20
  Sigmar Gabriel wirft Wulff vor, die Ma=C3=9Fst=C3=A4be f=C3=BCr =
Ehrlichkeit und=20
  Glaubw=C3=BCrdigkeit in die falsche Richtung zu verschieben. Er =
betont, dass die=20
  SPD damals den "besseren Pr=C3=A4sidenten" wollte: Joachim=20
Gauck.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Sigmar Gabriel und Andrea Nahles"=20
  alt=3D"Sigmar Gabriel und Andrea Nahles"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01542/jm_spd_BM_Bayern_B_154=
2790p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 8. Januar:=20
  SPD-Generalsekret=C3=A4rin Andrea Nahles (r.) fordert f=C3=BCr den =
Fall eines=20
  Wulff-R=C3=BCcktritts Neuwahlen. Gabriel widersprach ihr=20
  zugleich.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Christian Wulff" alt=3D"Christian Wulff"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01543/christian_pk_BM_Ba_154=
3254p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: Getty Images/Getty</FONT></SPAN><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 9. Januar: Eine =
Umfrage=20
  zeigt: Nicht einmal jeder Dritte f=C3=BChlt sich durch Wulff =
angemessen=20
  repr=C3=A4sentiert</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3DWulff alt=3DWulff=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01544/Christian_Wulff_Da_154=
4101p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: picture alliance / =
Eventpress/Eventpress</FONT></SPAN><FONT=20
  face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
6.9pt"> 10.=20
  Januar: "Spiegel Online" berichtet =C3=BCber einen neuen Vorwurf. =
Filmproduzent=20
  David Groneworld (rechts im Bild, Archivfoto 2005) ) hat eine =
Biografie =C3=BCber=20
  seinen Freund Christian Wulff mit 10.000 Euro bezuschusst. Es gibt=20
  "unterschiedliche Angaben dar=C3=BCber, wof=C3=BCr genau die Zahlungen =
bestimmt waren".=20
  Pikant: Wulff hat sich als Ministerpr=C3=A4sident f=C3=BCr die =
Interessen der=20
  Filmindustrie eingesetzt.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Wulffs Anwalt" alt=3D"Wulffs Anwalt"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01544/mcz_wulff2_BM_Baye_154=
4768p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 11. Januar: Der =
Anwalt=20
  von Bundespr=C3=A4sident Christian Wulff, Gernot Lehr, lehnt eine =
Ver=C3=B6ffentlichung=20
  der Fragen und Antworten zu der Kredit- und Medienaff=C3=A4re des =
Staatsoberhauptes=20
  weiter ab. Er habe rechtliche Bedenken.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Wulff und Merkel" alt=3D"Wulff und Merkel"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01545/mcz_wulff_BM_Bayer_154=
5171p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 12. Januar: =
Christian=20
  Wulff empf=C3=A4ngt Kanzlerin Angela Merkel im Rahmen des =
Neujahrsempfangs.=20
  W=C3=A4hrenddessen geben mehrere Zeitungen Wulffs Anw=C3=A4lten =
gr=C3=BCnes Licht f=C3=BCr die=20
  Ver=C3=B6ffentlichung der Fragen und =
Antworten.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01546/bs_14_07_DW_Kultur_154=
6994p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: picture-alliance/ dpa/dpa</FONT></SPAN><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 14. Januar: =
Beim=20
  Oktoberfest 2008 erhielt Wulff, hier mit Ehefrau Bettina, nach =
Medienberichten=20
  von Unternehmer Groenewold ein Upgrade f=C3=BCr eine Suite. Davon soll =
der=20
  Politiker nichts gewusst haben.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01547/kombo_wulff_nuru_D_154=
7918p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322 bundespr=C3=A4sidenten?? den an fragen></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd, pa/dpa/Maja Hitij, Ralf U. =
Heinrich</FONT></SPAN><FONT=20
  face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
6.9pt"> 16.=20
  Januar: Wulff sagt eine Aufzeichnung f=C3=BCr die Sendung "Fragen an =
den=20
  Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten" im Rahmen der Reihe "Galileo Spezial" ab. Als =
Moderatorin=20
  war auch das Model Sara Nuru, die "Germany's Next Topmodel"-Gewinnerin =
2009,=20
  vorgesehen.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"" alt=3D""=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01549/jm_wulff_tb_BM_Bay_154=
9247p.jpg"=20
  width=3D482 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: REUTERS</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 18. Januar: Die =

  Staatsanwaltschaft Stuttgart wird gegen Wulff und die BW-Bank kein=20
  Ermittlungsverfahren einleiten. Ein Anfangsverdacht f=C3=BCr Untreue =
oder=20
  Vorteilsnahme beziehungsweise Vorteilsgew=C3=A4hrung sei nicht =
ersichtlich, teilte=20
  die Beh=C3=B6rde mit. In der ersten Landtagsdebatte =C3=BCber die =
Vorw=C3=BCrfe hat die=20
  nieders=C3=A4chsische Opposition der Landesregierung eine Behinderung =
der=20
  Aufkl=C3=A4rung vorgeworfen. Die Regierung verweigere =
=C3=BCberf=C3=A4llige Ausk=C3=BCnfte =C3=BCber=20
  Wulffs Verhalten in seiner Zeit als Ministerpr=C3=A4sident bis Mitte =
2010,=20
  kritisierten SPD und Gr=C3=BCne.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3D"Wulff und Glaeseker" alt=3D"Wulff und Glaeseker"=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01550/GlaesekerGlaeseker_155=
0422p.jpg"=20
  width=3D430 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 19. Januar: Die =

  Staatsanwaltschaft Hannover durchsucht Privat- und =
Gesch=C3=A4ftsr=C3=A4ume des=20
  Ex-Sprechers von Wulff. Olaf Glaeseker (r.) wird Bestechlichkeit=20
  vorgeworfen.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3DWulff alt=3DWulff=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01550/mcz_wulffa_BM_Baye_155=
0743p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dpa/DPA</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 20. Januar: =
Wulffs Anwalt=20
  best=C3=A4tigt auf Anfrage: Christian und Bettina Wulff haben sich =
2010 ihre Reise-=20
  und =C3=9Cbernachtungskosten beim M=C3=BCnchner Filmball von der Firma =
Zentis bezahlen=20
  lassen. Die Einladung habe jedoch im Einklang mit dem =
nieders=C3=A4chsischen=20
  Ministergesetz gestanden.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fcfcfb; MARGIN: 0px 7px 0px 0px; DISPLAY: =
none; CLEAR: both; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; OVERFLOW: hidden"=20
class=3D"clear galleryContent bgColor3">
<DL style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
class=3D"imgMargin13 alignCenter">
  <DT style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><A=20
  style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DgalleryNextTrigger=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13776850/Kritik-an-=
Bundespraesident-Christian-Wulff.html"><IMG=20
  title=3DWulff alt=3DWulff=20
  =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01551/fas_wulff_DW_Bayer_155=
1451p.jpg"=20
  width=3D483 height=3D322></A>=20
  <DD=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: left; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; MARGIN: 0px; =
VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><SPAN=20
  style=3D"TEXT-ALIGN: right; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: =
uppercase; MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: block; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
  class=3DcopyRight><FONT style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: =
4.8pt"=20
  face=3DArial>Foto: dapd/DAPD</FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-SIZE: 6.9pt"> 21. Januar: Das =

  Staatsoberhaupt verliert das Vertrauen der Bev=C3=B6lkerung. Wulffs=20
  Glaubw=C3=BCrdigkeitswerte sind 43 Prozentpunkte schlechter als zum =
Amtsantritt =E2=80=93=20
  nur noch jeder vierte Deutsche h=C3=A4lt ihn f=C3=BCr=20
ehrlich.</FONT></FONT></DD></DL></DIV></DIV><IFRAME=20
style=3D"DISPLAY: none; VISIBILITY: hidden" =
id=3DadFrame_gallery13776850Ad633=20
height=3D0 =
src=3D"http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article13827053/"=20
frameBorder=3D0 width=3D0></IFRAME>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; DISPLAY: none; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"=20
id=3DgalleryBanner_gallery13776850Ad633 class=3D"ad =
adMarginBottom"></DIV>
<SCRIPT type=3Dtext/javascript></SCRIPT>

<SCRIPT type=3Dtext/javascript></SCRIPT>

<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Selbst manche Journalisten =
haben vor=20
kurzem gejammert, die eigene Zunft spiele sich im Fall Wulff als Richter =
auf.=20
Das ist absurd. Tats=C3=A4chlich entwickelt sich die Causa Wulff zu =
einem Thema, das=20
auch gestandene Redakteure ratlos zur=C3=BCckl=C3=A4sst. Ohne die =
Recherche aus =C3=BCbrigens=20
sehr unterschiedlich grundierten Presseh=C3=A4usern w=C3=A4re es nicht =
einmal zu den=20
halbherzigen Entschuldigungen gekommen, mit denen Wulff glaubte, die =
Aff=C3=A4re=20
beenden zu k=C3=B6nnen. Die Verteidiger des Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten =
klagen nun =C3=BCber eine=20
=E2=80=9EPressekampagne=E2=80=9C und fordern Respekt vor dem Amt. =
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline">
<H3 style=3D"MARGIN: 13px 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline"><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 9pt">Wulff entgleitet die W=C3=BCrde =
</FONT></FONT></H3>
<P style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Doch einer =
Staatsr=C3=A4son muss zun=C3=A4chst=20
einmal der Bundespr=C3=A4sident gerecht werden, nicht etwa Journalisten. =
Dass=20
Rechercheure unterschiedlicher Provenienz zu =C3=A4hnlichen Ergebnissen =
und=20
Bewertungen kommen, zeugt deshalb nicht von =E2=80=9EKampagne=E2=80=9C =
und schon gar nicht von=20
=E2=80=9EGleichschaltung=E2=80=9C, wie manche in ma=C3=9Floser Aufregung =
behaupten. Dieses Ph=C3=A4nomen=20
spricht vor allem f=C3=BCr unsere Republik. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt">Dass die =
ver=C3=B6ffentlichte Meinung in=20
Deutschland sich nach mehr als 60 Jahren praktizierter =
</FONT></FONT><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt"><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline"=20
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/themen/Pressefreiheit/" target=3D_blank><FONT =

color=3D#990000><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none"=20
face=3DArial>Pressefreiheit</FONT></FONT></A></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 8.4pt"> von politischer G=C3=A4ngelung und =
Instrumentalisierung=20
weitgehend befreit hat, mag h=C3=B6chstens noch der ein oder andere =
Parteisoldat=20
bedauern. Christian Wulff wurde Bundespr=C3=A4sident, weil die Kanzlerin =
es so=20
wollte. Inzwischen ist er ein Staatsoberhaupt, dem die W=C3=BCrde des =
Sprechamtes=20
entgleitet. So einen Pr=C3=A4sidenten braucht kein B=C3=BCrger dieser =
Republik.=20
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P=20
style=3D"LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 5px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: =
baseline">&nbsp;</P><A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article13827053/Praesident-=
Wulff-gelebte-staatspolitische-Schizophrenie.html=20
href=3D"http://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article13827053/Praesident-=
Wulff-gelebte-staatspolitische-Schizophrenie.html">http://www.welt.de/deb=
atte/kommentare/article13827053/Praesident-Wulff-gelebte-staatspolitische=
-Schizophrenie.html</A></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"POSITION: relative; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; =
PADDING-TOP: 0px"=20
class=3D"text paddingTop443"><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=3D3>Wulffs Verteidigung ist schwere Feigheit im=20
Amt</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=3D3></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV class=3D"ContentImage Left Medium"><IMG alt=3D""=20
src=3D"http://www.berliner-zeitung.de/image/view/2012/0/24/11503272,92204=
35,medRes,maxh,176,maxw,234,Wulff_Feigheit_im_Amt.jpg.jpg">=20

<DIV class=3DimgSubline><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Wieviel Respekt verdient ein Chef, der seine =
Mitarbeiter=20
feuert, bevor er selbst Verantwortung =C3=BCbernimmt?<BR>Foto:=20
dapd</FONT></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV id=3Darticle_text><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><SPAN =
class=3DAutorName><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Von Stephan Hebel</FONT></SPAN><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><BR></FONT></FONT>
<DIV class=3DprintBold>
<DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><STRONG>Man mag=20
von Medien halten, was man will =E2=80=93 aber bedarf es niederen =
journalistischen=20
Jagdinstinkts, um aus Wulffs Verhalten eine R=C3=BCcktrittsforderung =
abzuleiten? Ein=20
Kommentar.</STRONG></FONT></FONT></P></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><SPAN class=3DInitial><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">W</FONT></SPAN><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">illkommen=20
zur n=C3=A4chsten Folge von =E2=80=9EWulff muss weg=E2=80=9C. Wir =
begr=C3=BC=C3=9Fen Sie aus den d=C3=BCsteren=20
Schreibstuben eines aus Jux und Dollerei den Bundespr=C3=A4sidenten =
jagenden=20
Rudel-Journalismus. Wir hei=C3=9Fen Sie willkommen im Namen einer =
=E2=80=9Egro=C3=9Fen Koalition=20
unter F=C3=BChrung der Bild-Zeitung=E2=80=9C, wie Josef Joffe von der =
Zeit es nennt. Wir=20
melden uns noch einmal, um =E2=80=9Egleichgeschaltet=E2=80=9C (Roland =
Tichy von der=20
Wirtschaftswoche), aber unersch=C3=BCttert ein weiteres Mal auszurufen: =
Wulff muss=20
weg.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">Zugegeben: Um den=20
R=C3=BCcktritt noch einmal zu fordern, h=C3=A4tte es dieses Textes nicht =
bedurft. Aber es=20
bedarf offenbar einer immer neuen Anstrengung, den Kern der =
Auseinandersetzung=20
hinter all den Fakten, Fragen und =E2=80=93 ja, auch die gibt es =
=E2=80=93 medialen=20
Inszenierungen zu erkennen. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Um das =
zu tun,=20
muss man keineswegs alles glauben, was Medien verbreiten. Dazu gleich =
mehr. Aber=20
die Substanz sauber recherchierter Fakten, die selbst Wulff nicht =
bestreitet,=20
sollte auch der sch=C3=A4rfste Medienkritiker nicht aus den Augen=20
verlieren.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Diese =
Substanz =E2=80=93=20
der Stoff, aus dem die berechtigten R=C3=BCcktrittsforderungen sind =
=E2=80=93 l=C3=A4sst sich=20
nicht mit den Begriffen des Strafrechts beschreiben. Weshalb, nebenbei, =
der=20
st=C3=A4ndige Hinweis der Wulff-Verteidiger ins Leere geht, dass es =
gegen den=20
Pr=C3=A4sidenten ja kein Gerichtsverfahren gebe, jedenfalls kein =
strafrechtliches.=20
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Ist es =
vor lauter=20
Aufregung nicht mehr m=C3=B6glich, eine politische Debatte von einer =
Strafanzeige,=20
eine R=C3=BCcktrittsforderung von einem Antrag auf Haftbefehl zu=20
unterscheiden?</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Die =
politische=20
Debatte dreht sich um die Frage, ob eine bestimmte Person einem =
bestimmten Amt=20
gewachsen ist. Es geht um die Frage, ob diesem Amt gewachsen sein kann, =
wer=20
unter dem Verdacht steht, materielle Vorteile genossen zu haben, die er =
ohne=20
seinen Politikerstatus vielleicht nicht erhalten h=C3=A4tte. =
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Und es =
geht vor=20
allem um die Frage, ob der Inhaber des h=C3=B6chsten Staatsamts in =
seiner vorherigen=20
Funktion all dies zu vertuschen suchte, indem er dem Parlament falsche =
oder=20
unzureichende Antworten gab oder geben lie=C3=9F. </FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">In =
diesen Tagen=20
verdient bei der R=C3=BCcktrittsfrage noch etwas anderes unser =
Augenmerk: Seit=20
Christian Wulff sich den bekannten Fragen und Vorw=C3=BCrfen ausgesetzt =
sieht,=20
fl=C3=BCchtet er sich in eine verdruckste, manchmal aber auch =
verr=C3=A4terische Art zu=20
sprechen. Das j=C3=BCngste Beispiel gab er am Sonntag.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">Diesmal ging es um=20
die Frage, ob die nieders=C3=A4chsische Staatskanzlei die sinnfreie =
Sause namens=20
Nord-S=C3=BCd-Dialog nicht doch unterst=C3=BCtzte, sei es mit Geld oder =
dem Anwerben von=20
Sponsoren. Wulff: =E2=80=9ESollte jetzt doch Steuergeld geflossen sein, =
h=C3=A4tten wir dem=20
Parlament nicht die Wahrheit gesagt =E2=80=93 das ist ein ernster =
Vorgang, der zu Recht=20
jetzt vermutlich vom Staatsgerichtshof gekl=C3=A4rt werden =
wird.=E2=80=9C</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Wulff =
sagt =E2=80=9Ewir=E2=80=9C =E2=80=93=20
und verh=C3=A4lt sich zugleich, als h=C3=A4tte er damit nichts zu tun. =
Denn wollte er sich=20
zu seiner Verantwortung f=C3=BCr dieses =E2=80=9EWir=E2=80=9C bekennen, =
das ja nichts anderes=20
bezeichnet als eine von ihm gef=C3=BChrte Landesregierung, dann bliebe =
ihm nur der=20
Satz: Sollte sich der =E2=80=9Eernste Vorgang=E2=80=9C best=C3=A4tigen, =
dass meine Regierung das=20
Parlament belog, dann trete ich als der damals Verantwortliche=20
zur=C3=BCck.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">Stattdessen eine=20
Art seltsam pervertierter Pluralis Majestatis: So wie einst der =
K=C3=B6nig von sich=20
selbst in der Mehrzahl sprach, weil alle Macht in seinen H=C3=A4nden =
lag, so=20
versteckt sich unser Pr=C3=A4sident hinter einem =E2=80=9Ewir=E2=80=9C, =
zu dem er nicht mehr geh=C3=B6ren=20
m=C3=B6chte. Es handelt sich um das Delegieren politischer Verantwortung =
an eine=20
anonyme Beh=C3=B6rde namens Staatskanzlei, vertreten durch das =
Bauernopfer Olaf=20
Glaeseker. Es handelt sich um schwere Feigheit im Amt.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Man =
mag von Medien=20
halten, was man will =E2=80=93 aber bedarf es wirklich eines niederen =
journalistischen=20
Jagd-Instinkts, um aus diesen Verhaltensweisen eine =
R=C3=BCcktrittsforderung=20
abzuleiten? Haben wir Medien das Vertrauen unserer Leserinnen und Leser =
so=20
verspielt, dass uns ein nennenswerter Teil der B=C3=BCrgerschaft nicht =
zutraut,=20
Wulffs Abgang aus ehrlicher Sorge um die politische Hygiene im Land zu=20
fordern?</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Es =
w=C3=A4re unsinnig=20
zu bestreiten, dass Medien zu diesem Misstrauen ihre Beitr=C3=A4ge =
geleistet haben.=20
Dass manche Journalisten sich stolz wie ein Teil des Politikbetriebs =
benehmen,=20
den sie kontrollieren sollten, entspricht den Tatsachen. Dass einige =
Vertreter=20
seri=C3=B6ser Leitmedien sich auf unverantwortliche Weise mit Bild =
gemeinmachten,=20
trifft ebenso zu. Sie h=C3=A4tten merken m=C3=BCssen, dass Bild-Chef Kai =
Diekmann den=20
kurzfristig betretenen seri=C3=B6sen Sektor zur Jahreswende schon wieder =
verlie=C3=9F.=20
</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">Stattdessen lie=C3=9Fen=20
sie sich von ihm mit H=C3=A4ppchen von der Mailbox versorgen und =
brachten sie=20
anstelle des Boulevardblatts unter die Leute, w=C3=A4hrend Bild sich =
daf=C3=BCr feiern=20
lie=C3=9F, den Inhalt f=C3=BCr sich zu behalten.</FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">All =
das hat es=20
gegeben. Aber nichts davon f=C3=BChrt zu irgendwelchen Abstrichen an den =

unwiderlegbaren Fakten, die teils dieselben Medien ans Tageslicht =
brachten.=20
Schlimm genug, dass manche Journalisten das Ansehen, das die Branche mit =

Erfolgen bei der Aufkl=C3=A4rung erwirbt, durch unseri=C3=B6se Kampagnen =
wieder zerst=C3=B6ren.=20
Aber dass Wulff im Amt bleiben sollte, l=C3=A4sst sich daraus nun =
wirklich nicht=20
schlie=C3=9Fen.</FONT></FONT></P></DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dbreaker></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN-TOP: 20px" class=3Dfr_green><FONT face=3D"Times New =
Roman"><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Artikel URL: </FONT></FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik/kommentar-wulffs-verteidig=
ung-ist-schwere-feigheit-im-amt,10808018,11499842.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt">http://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik/kommentar-wulffs-verteidigun=
g-ist-schwere-feigheit-im-amt,10808018,11499842.html</FONT></FONT></A></D=
IV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"POSITION: relative; MARGIN: 0px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: baseline; =
PADDING-TOP: 0px"=20
class=3D"text paddingTop443">&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D3 face=3DVerdana><SPAN id=3DHtmlphcontrol1=20
class=3DDetaildSuammary>&nbsp; </SPAN></FONT><STRONG><FONT size=3D3=20
face=3DVerdana><STRONG><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D1=20
face=3DArial>************************************************************=
*************************************************************************=
*************************************************************************=
*************************************************</FONT></STRONG></DIV></=
FONT></STRONG></FONT></DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT size=3D1=20
face=3DArial>************************************************************=
*************************************************************************=
*************************************************************************=
****************************************************</FONT></STRONG></DIV=
>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT size=3D1 =
face=3DArial></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT size=3D3=20
face=3D"Times New =
Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&n=
bsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nb=
sp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
<STRONG><U><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Politics: from =
Vision to=20
Action</FONT></U></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr>&nbsp;</DIV>
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<FONT size=3D5 face=3DVerdana>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT><A =
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T=20
style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D5 face=3DVerdana>False=20
Flag</FONT></A>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp=
;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=
=20
<FONT size=3D1>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <FONT =
color=3D#0000ff>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT></FONT></FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D1><FONT size=3D1><FONT color=3D#ff0000><FONT =
size=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000 =
face=3DVerdana></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D1><FONT size=3D1><FONT color=3D#ff0000><FONT =
size=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><STRONG>A series of =
CIA memos=20
describes how Israeli Mossad agents posed as American spies to recruit =
members=20
of the terrorist organization Jundallah to fight their covert war =
against=20
Iran.</STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D1><FONT size=3D1><FONT color=3D#ff0000><FONT =
size=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><FONT color=3D#ff0000><FONT =
color=3D#000000></FONT></FONT><STRONG><FONT=20
size=3D1><SPAN id=3Dby-line>BY MARK PERRY</SPAN> <SPAN=20
id=3Dbyline-pubdate-separator>|</SPAN><SPAN id=3Dpub-date>JANUARY 13,=20
2012</SPAN></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><STRONG><FONT size=3D1></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft>Buried deep in the archives of America's intelligence =
services are a=20
series of memos, written during the last years of President George W. =
Bush's=20
administration, that describe how Israeli Mossad officers recruited =
operatives=20
belonging to the terrorist group Jundallah by passing themselves off as =
American=20
agents. According to two U.S. intelligence officials, the Israelis, =
flush with=20
American dollars and toting U.S. passports, posed as CIA officers in =
recruiting=20
Jundallah operatives -- what is commonly referred to as a "false flag"=20
operation.</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft>&nbsp;</DIV>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The memos, as described by the sources, =
one of whom=20
has read them and another who is intimately familiar with the case, =
investigated=20
and debunked reports from 2007 and 2008 accusing the CIA, at the =
direction of=20
the White House, of covertly supporting Jundallah -- a Pakistan-based =
Sunni=20
extremist organization. Jundallah, according to </FONT><A =
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/11/150332.htm" =
target=3D_blank><FONT=20
style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>the U.S.=20
government</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> and </FONT><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.rferl.org/content/Jundallah_Profile_Of_A_Sunni_Extremi=
st_Group/1856699.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2 =
face=3DVerdana>published=20
reports</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>, is responsible for =
assassinating=20
Iranian government officials and killing Iranian women and =
children.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>But while the memos show that the =
United States had=20
barred even the most incidental contact with Jundallah, according to =
both=20
intelligence officers, the same was not true for Israel's Mossad. The =
memos<B>=20
</B>also detail CIA field reports saying that Israel's recruiting =
activities=20
occurred under the nose of U.S. intelligence officers, most notably in =
London,=20
the capital of one of Israel's ostensible allies, where Mossad officers =
posing=20
as CIA operatives met with Jundallah officials.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The officials did not know whether the =
Israeli=20
program to recruit and use Jundallah is ongoing. Nevertheless, they were =
stunned=20
by the brazenness of the Mossad's efforts.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>"It's amazing what the Israelis thought =
they could=20
get away with," the intelligence officer said. "Their recruitment =
activities=20
were nearly in the open. They apparently didn't give a damn what we=20
thought."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Interviews with six currently serving =
or recently=20
retired intelligence officers over the last 18 months have helped to =
fill in the=20
blanks of the Israeli false-flag operation. In addition to the two =
currently=20
serving U.S. intelligence officers, the existence of the Israeli =
false-flag=20
operation was confirmed to me by four retired intelligence officers who =
have=20
served in the CIA or have monitored Israeli intelligence operations from =
senior=20
positions inside the U.S. government. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The CIA and the White House were both =
asked for=20
comment on this story. By the time this story went to press, they had =
not=20
responded. The Israeli intelligence services -- the Mossad -- were also=20
contacted, in writing and by telephone, but failed to respond. As a =
policy,=20
Israel does not confirm or deny its involvement in intelligence=20
operations.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>There is no denying that there is a =
covert, bloody,=20
and ongoing campaign aimed at stopping Iran's nuclear program, though no =

evidence has emerged connecting recent acts of sabotage and killings =
inside Iran=20
to Jundallah. Many reports have cited Israel as the architect of this =
covert=20
campaign, which claimed its latest victim on Jan. 11 when a motorcyclist =
in=20
Tehran </FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/iranian-nuclear-scientist-killed-am=
id-heightened-tensions/story?id=3D15338086#.Tw224oFKOuI"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>slipped</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> a =
magnetic explosive=20
device under the car of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a young Iranian nuclear=20
scientist. The explosion killed Roshan, making him the fourth scientist=20
assassinated in the past two years. The United States adamantly denies =
it is=20
behind these killings.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>According to one retired CIA officer, =
information=20
about the false-flag operation was reported up the U.S. intelligence =
chain of=20
command. It reached CIA Director of Operations Stephen Kappes, his =
deputy=20
Michael Sulick, and the head of the Counterintelligence Center. All =
three of=20
these officials are now retired. The Counterintelligence Center, =
according to=20
</FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"https://www.cia.gov/offices-of-cia/intelligence-analysis/organiza=
tion-1/cic-ag.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2 =
face=3DVerdana>its=20
website</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>, is tasked with =
investigating=20
"threats posed by foreign intelligence services."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The report then made its way to the =
White House,=20
according to the currently serving U.S. intelligence officer. The =
officer said=20
that Bush "went absolutely ballistic" when briefed on its =
contents.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>"The report sparked White House =
concerns that=20
Israel's program was putting Americans at risk," the intelligence =
officer told=20
me. "There's no question that the U.S. has cooperated with Israel in=20
intelligence-gathering operations against the Iranians, but this was =
different.=20
No matter what anyone thinks, we're not in the business of assassinating =
Iranian=20
officials or killing Iranian civilians."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Israel's relationship with Jundallah =
continued to=20
roil the Bush administration until the day it left office, this same=20
intelligence officer noted. Israel's activities jeopardized the =
administration's=20
fragile relationship with Pakistan, which was coming under intense =
pressure from=20
Iran to crack down on Jundallah. It also undermined U.S. claims that it =
would=20
never fight terror with terror, and invited attacks in kind on U.S.=20
personnel.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>"It's easy to understand why Bush was =
so angry," a=20
former intelligence officer said. "After all, it's hard to engage with a =
foreign=20
government if they're convinced you're killing their people. Once you =
start=20
doing that, they feel they can do the same."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>A senior administration official vowed =
to "take the=20
gloves off" with Israel, according to a U.S. intelligence officer. But =
the=20
United States did nothing -- a result that the officer attributed to =
"political=20
and bureaucratic inertia."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>"In the end," the officer noted, "it =
was just=20
easier to do nothing than to, you know, rock the boat." Even so, at =
least for a=20
short time, this same officer noted, the Mossad operation sparked a =
divisive=20
debate among Bush's national security team, pitting those who wondered =
"just=20
whose side these guys [in Israel] are on" against those who argued that =
"the=20
enemy of my enemy is my friend." </FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The debate over Jundallah was resolved =
only after=20
Bush left office when, within his first weeks as president, Barack Obama =

drastically scaled back joint U.S.-Israel intelligence programs =
targeting Iran,=20
according to multiple serving and retired officers.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The decision was controversial inside =
the CIA,=20
where officials were forced to shut down "some key =
intelligence-gathering=20
operations," a recently retired CIA officer confirmed. This action was =
followed=20
in November 2010 by the State Department's </FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: =
0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1110/US_designates_Jundu=
llah_as_terrorist_group.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>addition</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> of =
Jundallah to its=20
list of foreign terrorist organizations -- a decision that one former =
CIA=20
officer called "an absolute no-brainer."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Since Obama's initial order, U.S. =
intelligence=20
services have received clearance to cooperate with Israel on a number of =

classified intelligence-gathering operations focused on Iran's nuclear =
program,=20
according to a currently serving officer. These operations are highly =
technical=20
in nature and do not involve covert actions targeting Iran's =
infrastructure or=20
political or military leadership.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>"We don't do bang and boom," a recently =
retired=20
intelligence officer said. "And we don't do political=20
assassinations."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Israel regularly proposes conducting =
covert=20
operations targeting Iranians, but is just as regularly shut down, =
according to=20
retired and current intelligence officers. "They come into the room and =
spread=20
out their plans, and we just shake our heads," one highly placed =
intelligence=20
source said, "and we say to them -- 'Don't even go there. The answer is=20
no.'"</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Unlike the Mujahedin-e Khalq, the =
controversial=20
exiled Iranian terrorist group that seeks the overthrow of the Tehran =
regime and=20
is supported by former leading U.S. policymakers, Jundallah is =
relatively=20
unknown -- but just as violent. In May 2009, a Jundallah suicide bomber =
blew=20
himself up inside a mosque in Zahedan, the capital of Iran's =
southeastern=20
Sistan-Baluchistan province bordering Pakistan, during a Shiite =
religious=20
festival. The bombing killed 25 Iranians and wounded scores of=20
others.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The attack enraged Tehran, which traced =
the=20
perpetrators to a cell operating in Pakistan. The Iranian =
government</FONT><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=3D8807281564"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>notified</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> the =
Pakistanis of the=20
Jundallah threat and urged them to break up the movement's bases along =
the=20
Iranian-Pakistani border. The Pakistanis reacted sluggishly in the =
border areas,=20
feeding Tehran's suspicions that Jundallah was protected by Pakistan's=20
intelligence services.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The 2009 attack was just one in a long =
line of=20
terrorist attacks attributed to the organization. In August 2007,=20
Jundallah</FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5btt_news=
%5d=3D4477&amp;tx_ttnews%5bbackPid%5d=3D240&amp;no_cache=3D1"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>kidnapped</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> 21 =
Iranian truck=20
drivers. In December 2008, it </FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2011/aug/23/us-terrorism-report-m=
ek-and-jundallah"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2 =
face=3DVerdana>captured=20
and executed</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> 16 Iranian border =
guards --=20
the gruesome killings were filmed, in a stark echo of the decapitation =
of=20
American businessman Nick Berg in Iraq at the hands of al Qaeda's Abu =
Musab=20
al-Zarqawi. In July 2010, Jundallah </FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/17/world/middleeast/17tehran.html"=
=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>conducted</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> a twin =
suicide=20
bombing in Zahedan outside a mosque, killing dozens of people, including =
members=20
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The State Department aggressively =
denies that the=20
U.S. government had or has any ties to Jundallah. "We have repeatedly =
stated,=20
and reiterate again that the United States has <I>not </I>provided =
support to=20
Jundallah," a spokesman </FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2010/11/03/ofac-state-de=
partment-designate-iranian-group-as-terrorists/"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>wrote</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> in an =
email to the=20
<I>Wall Street Journal, </I>following Jundallah's designation as a =
terrorist=20
organization. "The United States does not sponsor any form of terrorism. =
We will=20
continue to work with the international community to curtail support for =

terrorist organizations and prevent violence against innocent civilians. =
We have=20
also encouraged other governments to take comparable actions against=20
Jundallah."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>A spate of stories in 2007 and 2008, =
including a=20
</FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2007/04/abc_news_exclus/"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>report</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> by ABC =
News and a=20
<I>New Yorker</I> </FONT><A style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh=
"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>article</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>, =
suggested that the=20
United States was offering covert support to Jundallah. The issue has =
now=20
returned to the spotlight with the string of assassinations of Iranian =
nuclear=20
scientists and has outraged serving and retired intelligence officers =
who fear=20
that Israeli operations are endangering American lives.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>"This certainly isn't the first time =
this has=20
happened, though it's the worst case I've heard of," former Centcom =
chief and=20
retired Gen. Joe Hoar said of the Israeli operation upon being informed =
of it.=20
"But while false-flag operations are hardly new, they're extremely =
dangerous.=20
You're basically using your friendship with an ally for your own =
purposes.=20
Israel is playing with fire. It gets us involved in their covert war, =
whether we=20
want to be involved or not."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>The Israeli operation left a number of =
recently=20
retired CIA officers sputtering in frustration. "It's going to be pretty =
hard=20
for the U.S. to distance itself from an Israeli attack on Iran with this =
kind of=20
thing going on," one of them told me.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Jundallah head Abdolmalek Rigi =
was</FONT><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px"=20
href=3D"http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/world/middleeast/24insurgent.ht=
ml"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>captured</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> by Iran =
in February=20
2010. Although initial reports claimed that he was captured by the =
Iranians=20
after taking a flight from Dubai to Kyrgyzstan, a retired intelligence =
officer=20
with knowledge of the incident told me that Rigi was detained by =
Pakistani=20
intelligence officers in Pakistan. The officer said that Rigi was turned =
over to=20
the Iranians after the Pakistani government informed the United States =
that it=20
planned to do so. The United States, this officer said, did not raise =
objections=20
to the Pakistani decision.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Iran, meanwhile, has consistently =
claimed that Rigi=20
was snatched from under the eyes of the CIA, which it alleges supported =
him. "It=20
doesn't matter," the former intelligence officer said of Iran's charges. =
"It=20
doesn't matter what they say. They know the truth."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Rigi was interrogated, tried, and =
convicted by the=20
Iranians and hanged on June 20, 2010. Prior to his execution, Rigi =
</FONT><A=20
style=3D"MARGIN: 0px" =
href=3D"http://edition.presstv.ir/detail/126963.html"=20
target=3D_blank><FONT style=3D"TEXT-DECORATION: none" size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>claimed</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> in an =
interview with=20
Iranian media -- which has to be assumed was under duress -- that he had =
doubts=20
about U.S. sponsorship of Jundallah. He recounted an alleged meeting =
with "NATO=20
officials" in Morocco in 2007 that raised his suspicions. "When we =
thought about=20
it we came to the conclusion that they are either Americans acting under =
NATO=20
cover or Israelis," he said.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>While many of the details of Israel's =
involvement=20
with Jundallah are now known, many others still remain a mystery --and =
are=20
likely to remain so. The CIA memos of the incident have been "blue =
bordered,"=20
meaning that they were circulated to senior levels of the broader U.S.=20
intelligence community as well as senior State Department =
officials.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>What has become crystal clear, however, =
is the=20
level of anger among senior intelligence officials about Israel's =
actions. "This=20
was stupid and dangerous," the intelligence official who first told me =
about the=20
operation said. "Israel is supposed to be working with us, not against =
us. If=20
they want to shed blood, it would help a lot if it was their blood and =
not ours.=20
You know, they're supposed to be a strategic asset. Well, guess what? =
There are=20
a lot of people now, important people, who just don't think that's=20
true."</FONT></P>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag?page=3D=
full=20
href=3D"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag?page=3D=
full">http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag?page=3D=
full</A><FONT=20
size=3D2></DIV></FONT>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT =
color=3D#ff0000=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia>
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face=3DArial><STRONG>****************************************************=
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<DIV><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial></FONT></DIV>
<H1 class=3Dstorytitle><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D3=20
face=3DVerdana>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp=
;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
New pan-Maghreb entrepreneur network to boost jobs</FONT></H1><FONT=20
face=3DVerdana><I><FONT color=3D#000000>20 January =
2012</FONT></I><BR></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#990000><I><I>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana>Hundreds of Maghreb businesspeople and officials =
explored=20
ways to cultivate cross-border commercial ties. </FONT></P></I>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT></P></I>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT></P></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>Business leaders from Libya, =
Tunisia,=20
Morocco, Mauritania, Algeria and the US agreed to set up a joint network =
to spur=20
job creation in the Maghreb. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>Over 400 young entrepreneurs =
gathered=20
January 17th-18th in Marrakech to explore opportunities for partnerships =
and=20
common projects. The second US-Maghreb Entrepreneurship Conference =
highlighted=20
youth business opportunities as a fundamental aspect of Maghreb economic =

policies aimed at ensuring social peace and political stability. =
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>The new Moroccan government sees =
youth=20
employment as a high-priority issue, Economy and Finance Minister Nizar =
Baraka=20
told Magharebia. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>Participants addressed ways to =
create new=20
jobs and business ventures as well as cultivate partnership links =
between the=20
Maghreb and the United States. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>Furthermore, they discussed the =
tools=20
needed, be they technical, financial or legal, to meet the needs of =
young=20
businesspeople. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>"If we can provide young people =
with the=20
help and support they need to realise their projects, then we will be in =
a=20
position to combat rising unemployment in an effective way," said Moussa =
Hachem,=20
a young entrepreneur in the field of new communication technologies from =

Casablanca. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>It is high time for young people =
in the=20
Maghreb to work together and to promote a business culture in their =
countries,=20
participants agreed. Youth entrepreneurs need support and educational =
programmes=20
in line with the actual needs of the labour market, they stressed. =
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>In conclusion, they called for =
the promotion=20
of partnerships in the fields of training and coaching so that people =
can=20
capitalise on successful experiences in the field. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana><FONT color=3D#000000>El Hadi Belabbas, Tunisian =
Secretary=20
of State for Foreign Affairs in charge of Asian and American relations, =
said=20
that democratic development in the Maghreb would come about through=20
international co-operation in the economic and social spheres.=20
</FONT><BR></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>For her part, former US =
Secretary of State=20
Madeleine Albright said at the conference that young people must from =
now on be=20
seen as real players and driving forces within their societies, not as =
mere=20
consumers. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>This partnership will allow =
young Maghreb=20
entrepreneurs to realise their projects, to communicate with one =
another, to=20
seek funding for their plans and to benefit from training sessions to=20
consolidate their skills and learn languages, said US Assistant =
Secretary of=20
State Jos=C3=A9 W. Fernandez. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>The US government has announced =
that it is=20
putting the finishing touches to a $4 million programme to support young =
Maghreb=20
entrepreneurs over the coming year. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 face=3DVerdana>The conference, which is the =
brainchild of=20
Partners for a New Beginning (PNB) and the North Africa Partnership for =
Economic=20
Opportunity (NAPEO), aims to stimulate partners in the worlds of =
business,=20
universities and state bodies in the Maghreb and the US. The goal is to =
promote=20
economic equality, encourage start-ups through training and greater =
access to=20
capital, and inspire young entrepreneurs to play a role in generating =
jobs in=20
the region. </FONT></P>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff><SPAN><STRONG></STRONG></SPAN></FONT><FONT =
size=3D1=20
face=3DVerdana></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><A=20
title=3Dhttp://ae.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20120121055454/New_panMaghr=
eb_entrepreneur_network_to_boost_jobs=20
href=3D"http://ae.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20120121055454/New_panMaghr=
eb_entrepreneur_network_to_boost_jobs">http://ae.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZ=
AWYA20120121055454/New_panMaghreb_entrepreneur_network_to_boost_jobs</A><=
FONT=20
face=3DVerdana></DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT =
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align=3Dleft><STRONG><FONT color=3D#008000 size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;<STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana>Merkel =
praises=20
Abbas for easing pressure on Palestinian statehood</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
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</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><IMG alt=3D"" =
src=3D"http://en.trend.az/news_photos/Angela-Merkel.jpg"><FONT=20
size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised =
Palestinian=20
President Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday in Berlin for easing off pressure =
on major=20
nations to recognize Palestine as a state, DPA reported.<BR><BR>Germany, =
which=20
opposes statehood without Israeli consent, has quarrelled with EU allies =
who=20
favour the move.<BR><BR>"We have differing points of view about whether =
it makes=20
sense to have recognition of a Palestinian state: yes or no. But that =
allows us=20
to act in unity on the issue of getting the matter up for negotiation," =
said=20
Merkel with Abbas at her side after talks.<BR><BR>"President Abbas has =
said that=20
as far as he is concerned, this can be postponed for a certain period, =
and that=20
what it really is about is peace and a two-state solution and borders," =
she=20
said.<BR><BR>Abbas has been in Berlin for two days of meetings with =
senior=20
officials, including a guard-of-honour welcome and lunch with Germany's=20
President Christian Wulff, although Germany does not recognize the =
Palestine=20
Authority as a state under international law.<BR><BR>He earlier assured =
the=20
speaker of Germany's parliament that he would be open to a compromise on =
issues=20
of Israel's security, sources close to the speaker, Norbert Lammert,=20
said.<BR><BR>Abbas would allow Israeli forces to remain on Palestinian =
territory=20
for a three-year period, together with NATO peacekeeping forces, after a =
peace=20
treaty, they said. But Abbas flatly rejected Israeli demands to keep =
forces in=20
the territory for 40 years.<BR><BR>"He (Abbas) has recognized that =
security is=20
an important point," said Merkel, urging a resumption of full talks =
broken off=20
16 months ago.<BR><BR>Abbas visited London earlier this week and is to =
visit=20
Moscow next week, briefing the powers on the progress of =
Israeli-Palestinian=20
talks in Jordan on terms to resume peace negotiations. A fourth such =
meeting is=20
set for January 25.<BR><BR>"Time is of the essence. It would be a great =
gift if=20
we could have some progress," Merkel said. "We're in a situation where =
both=20
sides are willing to speak to one another, and for many months that was =
not the=20
case. We want to use this opportunity."</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
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size=3D2></FONT>
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dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><BR><A =
title=3Dhttp://en.trend.az/regions/world/europe/1982191.html=20
href=3D"http://en.trend.az/regions/world/europe/1982191.html">http://en.t=
rend.az/regions/world/europe/1982191.html</A></DIV>
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<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><SUB><STRONG></STRONG></SUB></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT size=3D1=20
face=3DArial>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
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;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT size=3D1 =
face=3DArial></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dcenter><STRONG><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><STRONG></STRONG></FONT><FONT =
color=3D#800080=20
size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT><F=
ONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 =
size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG></STRONG></FONT><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 size=3D2 =
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#800080 size=3D2 face=3DGeorgia><STRONG>Massenbach's<A=20
href=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751"><IMG=20
class=3Duser-photo-list=20
title=3D"https://www.xing.com/profile/Udo_Massenbach/17.751&#10;STRG + =
Klicken, um Verkn=C3=BCpfung zu folgen"=20
alt=3D""=20
src=3D"https://www.xing.com/img/users/9/b/b/086ba10ed.380288_s2.jpg"></A>=
</STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG>=
</FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>Recommendation</FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dcenter><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial><FONT color=3D#800080=20
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT color=3D#800080 =
face=3DGeorgia><STRONG><FONT size=3D1><FONT=20
face=3DVerdana>&nbsp; </FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT></STRONG></FONT></STRONG></FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New =
Roman"><STRONG>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp=
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<FONT face=3DVerdana>Asia Times: Saudi Arabia pivots toward=20
Asia</FONT></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr>&nbsp;</DIV><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"></FONT>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr>Saudi Arabia's future lies in Asia. That was the subtext of =
Chinese=20
Premier Wen Jiabao's recent visit to Riyadh. That future might arrive a =
lot=20
quicker than people think, if BP is to be believed. <BR><BR>BP's most =
recent=20
energy outlook report predicts that the United States will become almost =

self-sufficient in energy by 2030, thanks to exploitation of its shale =
oil and=20
gas resources. <BR><BR>Per The Guardian, this is a ''development with =
enormous=20
geopolitical implications". [1] <BR><BR>Specifically, the geopolitical=20
implication is that, if the United States does not need the Middle East =
for=20
energy security, it will lose much of its motivation to meddle in the =
region, at=20
least in the</DIV>
<DIV dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>immense nation-destroying, =
budget-busting=20
tradition of the Iraq wars. <BR><BR>Maybe, just maybe, the United States =
will=20
wash its hands of the intractable Middle East and sail on to Asia in a =
search=20
for the 21st century heart of wealth and power. <BR><BR>That's bad news =
for=20
Israel and for Saudi Arabia, both of whom rely on United States backing =
to=20
buttress their shaky fortunes in the region ... fortunes that have =
become more=20
perilous with the advent of the Arab Spring, and the evaporation of =
local=20
authoritarian and/or pro-US regimes that were quite happy to coexist =
with=20
Israeli high-handedness and narrow Saudi autocracy. <BR><BR>It's also =
bad news=20
for the European Union and Britain, both of whom rely on Middle East =
energy=20
imports and - as the Libyan adventure demonstrated, 56 years after the=20
humiliation of Suez - still lack the resources and capabilities to bully =
their=20
way through their petrochallenges without significant US backup. =
<BR><BR>Maybe,=20
the theory seems to be, a magic combination of US commitment to =
democracy=20
promotion, human rights, nuclear non-proliferation, and loyalty to its =
allies=20
will keep the Barack Obama administration's attention riveted on Iran =
and=20
forestall the Middle East's slow slide into irrelevance, insofar as =
Washington=20
is concerned. <BR><BR>So, as the United States extricates itself from =
Iraq -=20
seemingly indifferent to the fact that the bloody ten-year occupation =
has=20
birthed a pro-Iranian Shi'ite-based regime instead of the promised=20
pro-American/pro-Israel/pro-Saudi proxy - considerable effort has been =
expended=20
to keep the Iranian pot boiling. <BR><BR>Israel issues veiled warnings =
of its=20
intent to attack Iran unilaterally; the EU and Britain wring its hands =
over=20
Iran's alleged nuclear weaponization activities; the Gulf regimes raise =
the=20
regional stakes by supporting Sunni militancy against Iranian allies in =
Iraq and=20
Syria; and somebody murders an Iranian nuclear scientist. <BR><BR>To =
forestall=20
one of Iran's local enemies from jumpstarting a conflict that drags in =
the=20
United States, the Obama administration engages in theatrical displays =
of=20
anti-Iranian rhetoric, sanctions resolve, and warship deployments meant =
to=20
demonstrate that the US is driving the Iran agenda, instead of being =
driven by=20
it ... while stubbornly forging ahead with America's Asian pivot and =
quietly=20
reassuring skittish allies in Tokyo and South Korea that it really isn't =
going=20
to crater the world economy for the sake of Iran's nuclear program.=20
<BR><BR>Israel, with its powerful political, economic, military and =
diplomatic=20
backing from the United States, a population apparently reconciled to =
its=20
perceived role as a disliked occupying power, and the reassurance of an=20
undeclared nuclear arsenal, can still be sanguine about its political =
fortunes.=20
<BR><BR>Saudi Arabia, an autocracy that serves as the defender of a =
religion=20
politically toxic in the United States - and, as the BP report =
indicates, facing=20
displacement from the center of US economic and energy concerns - has to =
think=20
about Plan B. <BR><BR>Plan B is Asia: India, China, South Korea and =
Japan.=20
<BR><BR>China is perhaps already Saudi Arabia's largest customer, taking =
1=20
million barrels per day (bpd - one-fifth of its requirement) and =
currently=20
making up for the demand shortfall from economically straitened Europe. =
How=20
China's surging demand and Saudi Arabia's maturing oil and gas industry =
will=20
complement each other is a fraught and interesting question. <BR><BR>The =
details=20
of Premier Wen's visit highlights Saudi Arabia's awkward 21st century =
transition=20
from the world's indispensable guarantor of hydrocarbon supply to =
anxious oil=20
and gas partner to Asia's surging economies. <BR><BR>The centerpiece of =
Wen's=20
visit was the signature of an agreement for the China Petroleum &amp; =
Chemical=20
Corporation (Sinopec) to invest in an 400,000 bpd export refinery, known =
as=20
YASREF (for" Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company"), in Saudi Arabia at =
Yanbu.=20
<BR><BR>The Yanbu refinery is already under construction, and is slated =
for=20
completion in 2014. The original foreign partner was ConocoPhillips, =
which=20
pulled out in 2010. <BR><BR>ConocoPhillips pulled out because it was a) =
choked=20
by debt from an acquisition binge and b) getting out of the refining =
business=20
globally because it couldn't match the return from investing in =
production.=20
<BR><BR>The reason the refinery - with an $8.5 billion price tag - has =
to be=20
built is because crude from Saudi Arabia's current big play, the Manifa =
offshore=20
field in the Persian Gulf, is too heavy and sulfur-laden to feed foreign =

refineries designed for sweet Saudi and Iranian crude. <BR><BR>The =
reason the=20
refinery has to be built at Yanbu is because Yanbu is on the Red Sea, at =
the=20
eastern terminus of the East-West Pipeline. The East-West pipeline, =
which has=20
the capacity to move 4.8 million bpd or half of Saudi Arabia's current =
output,=20
is a piece of security infrastructure meant to reduce Saudi Arabia's =
reliance on=20
the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. <BR><BR>Another reason the =
refinery has=20
to be built is that Saudi clout in regional and world affairs depends on =
it=20
making up any shortfall in world output if, for instance, Iranian crude =
left the=20
market. Indeed, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and during the Libyan =
fracas,=20
the Saudis apparently stepped up. <BR><BR>But increased supply of =
high-quality=20
sweet crude to European refineries set up for Libyan crude was =
accompanied by=20
accelerated production plans for Manifa, exacerbating long-held =
suspicions about=20
the actual reserves - especially reserves of sweet crude - available to =
Saudi=20
Arabia. As one analyst put it: </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>With Saudi producing =
8.3 million=20
  barrels a day pre-Libyan disruptions, why would Saudi accelerate a =
heavy-oil=20
  development if they really had 4.2 million barrels per day of spare =
capacity?=20
  [2] </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<DIV dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>If an unpleasant scenario =
(World War III=20
in the Gulf) crippled Iranian exports for an extended period of time, it =
looks=20
like the Saudis could no longer assure an increased supply of sweet =
crude.=20
<BR><BR>Perhaps refinery products (including diesel and gasoline from =
YASREF)=20
would serve as an acceptable palliative. But it would also be an =
indication that=20
Saudi Arabia's halcyon days as the indispensable marginal supplier are =
numbered.=20
Riyadh's efforts to provide rationally for its future have unintended=20
consequences. <BR><BR>The Yanbu refinery is a security play that further =

diminishes the importance of the Strait of Hormuz - and diminishes the =
need for=20
Western vigilance to keep the waterway open. Bypassing the strait is a =
trend=20
that has been going on for some time. <BR><BR>In addition to the =
East-West=20
pipeline, Abu Dhabi is rushing completion of a $3.29 billion underwater =
pipeline=20
from Abu Dhabi that will bypass the Strait of Hormuz and deliver 1.5 =
million bpd=20
of crude to Fujairah (equivalent to about 10% of the supertanker traffic =

currently passing through Hormuz), on the other side of the strait on =
the Gulf=20
of Oman. [3] <BR><BR>The Iranians have also been trying to avoid the =
Hormuz=20
bottleneck by building the "Friendship" or "IPI" gas pipeline to =
Pakistan and=20
India, thereby assisting Pakistan in solving its crippling energy =
shortages. The=20
United States, with an unfortunate callousness, has labored mightily to =
block=20
the pipeline and sustain Iranian reliance on crude tanker shipments by =
the=20
easily blocked (by a US blockade as well as Iranian missiles) strait for =
its=20
revenues. <BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Saudi focus on Mafina, =
together with=20
Riyadh's professed desire to sustain crude prices at $100 a barrel, =
raise the=20
question of whether production has actually peaked, and how cheap Saudi =
crude=20
really is. <BR><BR>Much has been made of Riyadh's need for high oil =
revenues to=20
buy off Saudi citizens with social programs and avert an Arab =
Spring-style=20
rumpus in the kingdom. With oil at $100/barrel, the Saudi budget is now=20
apparently running a healthy surplus. <BR><BR>However, high prices have =
also=20
spurred the boom in North American oil production, largely through =
fracking of=20
shales in North Dakota and in Canada, and threaten to remove Saudi =
Arabia from=20
its central position. <BR><BR>To be sure, technological advances in oil=20
production have opened </FONT><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>up what were =
once=20
economically unviable shale oil reserves. <BR><BR>However, these =
technological=20
advances still involve significant costs: at the Bakken field, in the =
center of=20
the US shale-oil boom, operators drill straight down more than two =
kilometers,=20
then drill sideways for two kilometers, then cement in a casing, then =
blow=20
little holes in the casing, then pump in a mixture of water, chemicals =
and=20
ceramic beads at high pressure to fracture the shale and prop open the =
crevices,=20
then pump the glop to the surface, separate out the oil, rinse and =
repeat.=20
<BR><BR>Shale oil breakeven is still about $55/barrel. <BR><BR>If Saudi =
Arabia=20
was still able to make a hole a few hundred meters in the ground and =
watch=20
hundreds of thousands of barrels of sweet crude pump itself to the =
separation=20
plant and crude terminal relying on the natural pressure generated by =
the=20
geologic formation itself at a cost of a few pennies a barrel, we =
probably=20
wouldn't be looking at an oil market increasingly driven by fracking ... =
or=20
$100/barrel oil. <BR><BR>The establishment of an infrastructure to =
bypass Hormuz=20
and export finished products in a high-price environment makes economic =
sense=20
... but in a way, Saudi Arabia is thereby contributing to its own=20
marginalization in the Western security equation. <BR><BR>That implies a =
greater=20
Saudi reliance on Asian markets - and on the governments of China, Japan =
and=20
South Korea, all of whom have shown a marked unwillingness to follow US =
diktats=20
on Iran sanctions and place their energy futures solely in the hands of =
Saudi=20
Arabia. <BR><BR>So it is interesting to speculate who holds the whip =
hand in=20
Sino-Saudi relations. <BR><BR>With a certain amount of satisfaction, the =
West=20
perceives China groveling before the Middle East energy baron that holds =
its=20
economic future in its hands. <BR><BR>The New York Times, in an analysis =
that=20
reflected as much wishful thinking and spin as hard fact, titled its =
article=20
"Middle East Trip Suggests Change in Policy by China" and cautiously =
interpreted=20
Wen's visit to Saudi Arabia as a distancing from Iran - even though =
China had=20
unequivocally stated its determination to defy US wishes and continue to =
buy oil=20
from Iran (and is stepping up its imports from the recovering oil =
industry of=20
Iraq). [4] <BR><BR>Indeed, Wen's public call for Saudi Arabia to permit =
Chinese=20
investment in crude production inside Saudi Arabia - the financial sweet =
spot -=20
was rebuffed. <BR><BR>However, Wen also announced an agreement on =
cooperation in=20
the development and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes with =
Saudi=20
Arabia that may be more significant in the long run. <BR><BR>Saudi =
Arabia has a=20
somewhat plausible interest in nuclear energy. But it is currently =
pitching=20
crude directly into its turbines to generate electric power; if nuclear =
energy=20
is cheaper than that, then the kingdom's petroleum production straits =
are=20
genuinely dire. <BR><BR>Saudi Arabia already has nuclear cooperation =
agreements=20
in place with the United States and France, raising the question of why =
it would=20
want an additional agreement with China. [5] <BR><BR>Saudi cooperation =
with=20
China could be a harbinger of an Iran-style scenario: ostentatious =
interest in=20
development of a civilian energy infrastructure, but holding the promise =
of a=20
quick jump to enrichment and fabrication beyond the weaponization red =
lines -=20
and reaffirmation of Saudi Arabia's central role in the Middle East, in =
Islam,=20
and in the world. <BR><BR>In the dance of alliance and interest between =
Saudi=20
Arabia and China, nuclear cooperation may have been a key component, a=20
concession by China that elicited Saudi forbearance on Beijing's =
continued ties=20
with Tehran. <BR><BR>It would also have served as a warning to the =
United States=20
that Riyadh is not without recourse if it is forced to search for new, =
more=20
enthusiastic security partners. <BR><BR>Saudi nuclearization is anathema =
to the=20
United States. <BR><BR>Beyond Obama's noble (and Nobel-winning) motives =
for=20
rolling back nuclear proliferation, there are hard geostrategic =
calculations at=20
work. <BR><BR>The United States has kept its geopolitical primacy in =
Asia by=20
forestalling initiatives by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to go nuclear =
(in=20
weaponry) and pursue independent foreign policies. <BR><BR>In the Middle =
East,=20
on the other hand, Israel has the bomb and has graduated from plucky =
ally to=20
dangerous, destabilizing and to some extent unwelcome partner. =
<BR><BR>One can=20
safely assume that a nuclear Saudi Arabia - an insecure, opaque and=20
ideologically-driven Islamist power that makes Pakistan look downright =
secular=20
and transparent by comparison - would not be welcome to the United =
States.=20
<BR><BR>It will be up to China to juggle the Saudi/Iran relationships =
delicately=20
and dexterously. If it doesn't, trouble will probably not be long in =
coming.=20
<BR><BR>If Saudi Arabia draws conspicuously close to China, look for the =
United=20
States to miraculously and suddenly discover a strong and positive =
interest in=20
supporting the democratic aspirations of the House of Saud's internal =
opponents=20
(and indeed, in the plight of the kingdom's ill-treated Shi'ite minority =
and=20
Shi'ite neighbors in Bahrain). <BR><BR>However, as the US gradually =
retreats=20
from the Middle East, unpopular autocracies will crave new partners. And =
who is=20
more familiar with dictatorships - or better equipped to prop up them up =
- than=20
China? <BR><BR>Saudi Arabia's main claim to global indispensability is =
the=20
assertion that, if the Iran situation blows up, Saudi Arabia will step =
forward,=20
boost crude production, and make up the shortfall, thereby rescuing the=20
tottering global economy. <BR><BR>Indeed, when Hurricane Katrina =
disrupted=20
production in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Libyan imbroglio disrupted =
supplies to=20
Europe, the Saudis did increase production and smooth out supply.=20
<BR><BR>However, these were relatively brief hiccups, and there is =
growing=20
suspicion that Saudi Arabia would have difficulty coming up with the =
wherewithal=20
to keep world energy markets supplied. <BR><BR><I><B>Notes</B></I> =
<BR>1.=20
</FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/18/shale-oil-gas-u=
s-energy-self-sufficient"><FONT=20
size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Shale oil and gas 'will make US=20
self-sufficient'</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>, Guardian, Jan =
18, 2012.=20
<BR>2. </FONT><A =
href=3D"http://arabnews.com/economy/article340902.ece"><FONT=20
size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Kingdom steps up role in global energy=20
security</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>, Arab News, Apr 2,=20
2011.<BR>3.</FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world/middleeast/pipeline-avoid=
s-strait-of-hormuz.html?_r=3D1&amp;pagewanted=3Dall%20to%20India"><FONT=20
size=3D2 face=3DVerdana> Pipeline Avoids Strait of =
Hormuz</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2=20
face=3DVerdana>, New York Times, Jan 11, 2012.<BR>4. </FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/14/world/asia/wen-jiabao-in-middle=
-east-as-china-evaluates-oil-policy.html?_r=3D1"><FONT=20
size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>Middle East Trip Suggests Change in Policy by=20
China</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>, New York Times, Jan 13, =
2012.<BR>5.=20
</FONT><A href=3D"http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/3568.pdf"><FONT size=3D2 =

face=3DVerdana>Saudi Arabia, France to conclude nuclear cooperation=20
pact</FONT></A><FONT size=3D2><FONT face=3DVerdana>, IEEJ, January 2011. =

<BR><BR><I><B>Peter Lee</B> writes on East and South Asian affairs and =
their=20
intersection with US foreign policy. </I></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" =
dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: #464646"=20
href=3D"http://www.faz.net/s/RubCE844206AD5543959580E21EDC440854/Doc~EA3D=
FDBAF8FA94DDA80214575FE0CDB83~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html"></SPAN><FONT=20
size=3D1 face=3DVerdana></FONT><A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA21Ak03.html=20
href=3D"http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA21Ak03.html">http://ww=
w.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA21Ak03.html</A>&nbsp;</DIV>
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dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft>&nbsp;</DIV>
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dir=3Dltr=20
align=3Dleft><FONT face=3DVerdana><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: #464646"=20
href=3D"http://www.faz.net/s/RubCE844206AD5543959580E21EDC440854/Doc~EA3D=
FDBAF8FA94DDA80214575FE0CDB83~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html"></SPAN></FONT><=
FONT=20
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ONT></DIV>
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V>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2 face=3DVerdana>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT size=3D3><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana><FONT=20
size=3D2></STRONG></FONT>&nbsp;<FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT=20
color=3D#000000><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana>Merkel's moment:=20
</FONT>&nbsp;</STRONG></FONT></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT =

color=3D#000000><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana>Germany has deployed =
geo-economics to=20
alter the geopolitics of the euro zone</FONT></STRONG> =
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Every major financial crisis has =
geopolitical=20
consequences. The financial crises of the 1980s and 1990s in Latin =
America=20
resulted in the emergence of Brazil as the dominant regional power, =
overtaking=20
decisively other competitors like Mexico, Chile and Argentina. The Asian =

financial crisis contributed to the dominance of China over East and =
South-east=20
Asia. The European fiscal and debt crisis has contributed to the =
consolidation=20
of Germany=E2=80=99s power within Europe.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>At the end of a long tunnel of painful =
political=20
negotiations within Europe, the light of debt relief is powered by the =
German=20
economy. However, a Germany that remains wary of asserting its political =

personality within Europe, as Japan has been in Asia, has firmly clasped =
the=20
hand of France to form a Franco-German alliance providing political =
leadership=20
to a distraught Europe.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>German diplomats the world over are =
insisting that=20
it is the =E2=80=9Cdual=E2=80=9D leadership of French President Nicolas =
Sarkozy and German=20
Chancellor Angela Merkel that is working together to provide relief to =
the=20
distressed European economies. When the ambassadors of Germany and =
France chose=20
to brief a few editors in New Delhi earlier this year about their joint=20
leadership in Europe, the meeting took place in the German =
ambassador=E2=80=99s house.=20
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>With France itself in a fiscal and =
financial bind,=20
it is not particularly averse to this warm German hug and so has chosen =
to be in=20
step with the more economically robust and self-assured Germany. While =
President=20
Sarkozy exudes French charm in the company of other heads of state, in =
the=20
company of the matronly German chancellor he behaves more like an =
obedient=20
schoolboy!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Germany=E2=80=99s hesitation in =
offering more assertive=20
political leadership within Europe is understandable. The fact, however, =
remains=20
that it has been more successful in consolidating its power in its own=20
neighbourhood than Japan has been in Asia.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Today Germany is to Europe what China =
has become=20
to East and South-east Asia. Both China and Germany are at once =
exporting as=20
well as importing powers. They export to the world but import largely =
from their=20
neighbours. This is the geoeconomic foundation of their power in a =
globally=20
integrated world.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>The only difference, and an important =
one, is that=20
China has been increasingly unabashed in asserting its military power. =
Germany=20
continues to shy away from doing so, given the burden of memory that =
still=20
haunts the so-called =E2=80=9Caxis=E2=80=9D powers of the last =
century.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Indeed, when France and Britain =
launched their=20
offensive in Libya, Germany stood with Brazil, India and South Africa, =
fellow=20
aspirants for United Nations Security Council membership, to abstain =
from voting=20
for a UN resolution authorising a no-fly zone over Libya and stay away =
from=20
military action.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Germany has consciously opted to =
project its power=20
only within its own hinterland, as it did in the Balkans, ensuring that =
it=20
emerges as the unquestioned leader of continental Europe. Beyond its own =

neighbourhood Germany remains a reluctant military power, but an =
aggressive=20
economic power.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Given its industrial and technological =
leadership=20
within Europe and its fiscal and financial strength, Germany has dealt =
with a=20
changing world with greater self-assuredness than other European nations =
that=20
have been unnerved both by the forces of globalisation and Asian =
competitiveness=20
and by their domestic political inability to deal with fiscal and =
financial=20
challenges.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>As Ulrike Geurot, an analyst at the =
European=20
Council on Foreign Affairs, puts it, =E2=80=9CA European Germany is =
going global with or=20
without its fellow Europeans... The huge transition that is occurring is =
that=20
Germany (or more precisely, the German role in and for Europe) is =
shifting from=20
geopolitics to geo-economics=E2=80=9D (available at: </FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://www.alexanderbon.com/2011/06/people-power-germany-greece-a=
nd-the-euro/"><FONT=20
size=3D2>www.alexanderbon.com/2011/06/people-power-germany-greece-and-the=
-euro/</FONT></A><FONT=20
color=3D#000000 size=3D2>).</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>What has helped Germany march ahead of =
its=20
European neighbours is its ability to retain its share of world trade, =
shifting=20
quickly to emerging markets, especially China. By exporting to the =
emerging=20
markets, while importing from its neighbours, Germany has mimicked =
China=E2=80=99s=20
strategy of exporting to the developed economies while importing from =
its=20
neighbours. This, in brief, is the geo-economics of German geopolitics=20
today.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>=E2=80=9CBusiness has exerted =
significant influence on key=20
elements of German foreign policy,=E2=80=9D says Hans Kundnani in a =
fascinating essay=20
titled =E2=80=9CGermany as a Geo-economic Power=E2=80=9D. ( <A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Kundnani.pdf=20
href=3D"http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Kundnani.pdf">http://ww=
w.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Kundnani.pdf</A>=20
) According to Mr Kundnani, =E2=80=9CEnergy companies like E.ON Ruhrgas =
have influenced=20
policy towards Russia; auto makers such as BMW have influenced policy =
towards=20
China; and manufacturers of technology and machinery such as Siemens =
have=20
influenced policy towards Iran... The concept of geo-economics now seems =

particularly helpful as a way of describing the foreign policy of =
Germany, which=20
has become more willing to impose its economic preferences on others =
within the=20
European Union in the context of a discourse of zero-sum competition =
between the=20
fiscally responsible and the fiscally irresponsible=E2=80=9D (The =
Washington Quarterly,=20
Summer 2011).</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Thus, rather than accept a =
reflationary fiscal=20
policy in the euro zone as the price of growth and employment =
generation,=20
export-sensitive Germany insisted on austerity throughout the euro zone, =

undermining growth in the =E2=80=9Cperiphery=E2=80=9D and even =
threatening European unity, to=20
ensure that it remains globally competitive. This mirrors =
China=E2=80=99s=20
=E2=80=9Cbeggar-thy-neighbour=E2=80=9D strategy of the 1990s within Asia =
of retaining its export=20
competitiveness at the cost of its neighbours.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>Kudnani believes that =E2=80=9Cin the =
future, we can=20
expect Germany to be increasingly willing to take decisions =
independently of =E2=80=93=20
and sometimes in opposition to =E2=80=93 its allies and partners, as it =
did during the=20
Libya crisis. It is likely to pursue its national interests =E2=80=93 =
defined above all=20
else in economic terms =E2=80=93 more assertively than it used to, while =
being more=20
reluctant to transfer sovereignty to multilateral =
institutions=E2=80=9D.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3D2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#000000 size=3D2>In bringing Germany to this point, =
after months of=20
lying low and appearing at times confused, at times fussy, and at times =
a=20
nit-picking and miserly aunt, Chancellor Merkel has emerged as the new =
Iron Lady=20
of Europe.</FONT><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;</FONT></P>
<DIV align=3Dleft></FONT><A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-experts-commentary/merkels-mom=
ent/=20
href=3D"http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-experts-commentary/merkels-mom=
ent/">http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-experts-commentary/merkels-momen=
t/</A>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT color=3D#000000=20
size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT>
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<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><FONT size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><STRONG>see our letter on:&nbsp; =

</STRONG></FONT><A =
href=3D"http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html"><FONT size=3D1=20
face=3DVerdana><STRONG=20
title=3D"http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html&#10;STRG + Klicken, =
um Verkn=C3=BCpfung zu =
folgen">http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html</STRONG></FONT></A></DI=
V>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana></FONT></STRONG><FONT=20
size=3D1></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: 'Verdana'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"=20
dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT size=3D1 face=3DArial>Wir w=C3=BCnschen Ihnen =
ein angenehmes=20
Wochenende. Ihr Team.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
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dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial></FONT></STRONG><FONT=20
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dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20
size=3D1><STRONG>********************************************************=
*********************************************************<BR></STRONG><ST=
RONG>Udo=20
von Massenbach&nbsp;&nbsp; -&nbsp;&nbsp; B=C3=A4rbel =
Freudenberg-Pilster&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
-&nbsp;&nbsp; J=C3=B6rg=20
Barandat</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp=
;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
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dir=3Dltr><STRONG><FONT face=3DArial><A=20
href=3D"mailto:UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de"><FONT=20
size=3D1>UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de</FONT></A><FONT =
size=3D1>&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:HMail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de"><FONT=20
title=3D"mailto:HMail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de&#10;STRG + Klicken, um =
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------=_NextPart_000_026D_01CCDBA4.D5CF8BD0
Content-Type: application/pdf;
	name="India says still buying Iran oil, despite new sanctions.pdf"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
Content-Disposition: attachment;
	filename="India says still buying Iran oil, despite new sanctions.pdf"

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------=_NextPart_000_026D_01CCDBA4.D5CF8BD0--

