Reply-To: "Udo von Massenbach" From: "Udo von Massenbach" Subject: Massenbach-Letter: NEWS 01/04/11 Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2011 13:30:17 +0200 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_012B_01CBEFA7.CC8ADAA0" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal Importance: Normal X-Unsent: 1 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V15.4.3508.1109 Dies ist eine mehrteilige Nachricht im MIME-Format. ------=_NextPart_000_012B_01CBEFA7.CC8ADAA0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_012C_01CBEFA7.CC8ADAA0" ------=_NextPart_001_012C_01CBEFA7.CC8ADAA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Guten Morgen. The Key Is Not in Libya Sweden wants to contribute eight fighter jets to Libya: PM STOCKHOLM, Mar 29, 2011 (AFP) - Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt = on Tuesday said the government would put before parliament a proposal to = contribute eight Gripen fighter jets to help enforce the no-fly zone in = Libya.=20 =C2=A9 Copyright AFP 2011.=20 http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidANA20110329T112104ZETC18/Sweden%20wants= %20to%20contribute%20eight%20fighter%20jets%20to%20Libya%3A%20PM see our letter again on: http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html Intern. Crisis Group: Conflict Risk Alert: Syria CharlotteObserver: Syria's chaos has big implications for U.S. David Ignatius (Washington Post): Obama's Mideast opportunity=20 ISN: Libya: AFRICOM's Combat Christening Massenbach Foreign Affairs: To the Shores of = Tripoli Publicist Why Operation Odyssey Dawn Should Not = Stop At Benghazi =20 As Catherine Ashton, the European Union's high representative for = foreign affairs and security policy, wrote in a March 18, 2011, New York = Times editorial about the European Union=E2=80=99s options in Libya, = =E2=80=9Csometimes the toughest question in world politics is: = =E2=80=98And then what?=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D In light of the furious pace = of the negotiations surrounding the previous day=E2=80=99s adoption of = UN Security Council Resolution 1973 -- which extended a no-fly zone over = Libya and authorized the international community to take whatever = additional measures necessary to protect the country's population short = of sending ground troops -- it is not surprising that no one had really = stopped to consider her question. Indeed, more time seems to have been = spent getting the European Union, the Arab League, the G-8, and the = Security Council to agree on the language than on the content. Still, if = those hurried diplomatic negotiations seemed a Herculean task, they may = pale in comparison to the challenge that comes next: keeping Libya = intact and on the road to recovery. For his part, U.S. President Barack Obama promised that intervention = would be short -- a matter of "days, not weeks." And British Prime = Minister David Cameron admonished that international involvement should = be limited to stopping Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi=E2=80=99s violence. = Both caveats will prove unrealistic.=20 At this point, the international community has two options: to either = protect the opposition movement in Cyrenaica, the vast eastern province = in which Benghazi is located, but not force Qaddafi out of power, or = make Qaddafi=E2=80=99s ouster an explicit goal. The former seems to be = what Cameron had in mind when he spoke of selective containment -- = perhaps in an attempt to sanitize international involvement. It was also = echoed in Obama's call for short-term intervention. Still, this kind of = containment is neither possible nor feasible. Indeed, it would defeat = the very logic of Resolution 1973. Of course, ongoing military strikes will undoubtedly strengthen the = rebels=E2=80=99 resolve. Seeing the destruction wreaked by the = international coalition, Qaddafi loyalists are unlikely to put up much = opposition. Even if the strikes stopped in the course of a cease-fire, = rebels would likely take advantage of Qaddafi=E2=80=99s weakness to try = to push the remnants of his assault forces westward, reigniting the = fighting.=20 If international action simply contained Qaddafi by halting his advance, = he would be left in control of Tripolitania, the northwestern province = in which Tripoli is located, leaving Cyrenaica effectively independent. = The two provinces are divided by long-standing tensions. Qaddafi = historically neglected the economy of Cyrenaica, because he judged the = tribes in those areas to be potentially disloyal. And tensions between = the two provinces were further exacerbated by Qaddafi=E2=80=99s attempts = to play each off the other in order to stay in power. Protecting half of = the country while leaving the other to Qaddafi would harden the = provinces=E2=80=99 resolve to go their own ways. And economically = speaking, that would be possible; both provinces have oil fields to rely = on for revenue.=20 But politically speaking, such a division would be disastrous. In = Tripolitania, Qaddafi would still have the resources and territory to = continue to wage war against the opposition. If the brutal state = terrorism Qaddafi instituted in the 1980s to secure Libya=E2=80=99 = position in the region is any indication, he would not hesitate to do = so. Even if he does observe a future cease-fire, selective containment = would allow him to play a long-term cat-and-mouse game, stopping = violence while surreptitiously extending his reach into the eastern part = of the country by manipulating or buying such Cyrenaican tribes as the = Warfalla, a powerful group that has so far adopted a cautious = wait-and-see policy. Meanwhile, the weapons that flowed through Libya=E2=80=99s porous = borders and into the hands of Cyrenaican opposition forces during the = anti-Qaddafi campaign will leave the regional tribes substantially more = powerful than before. Having suffered through Qaddafi=E2=80=99s violence = against them and then emboldened by Western intervention on their = behalf, they would be ready to fight back at all cost. Thus the specter = of all-out intertribal and interprovincial warfare would rise once more. A Libya with Qaddafi in even partial control would be unacceptable to = the international community; the country would be highly unstable and a = real liability to North Africa and Europe. The world=E2=80=99s inability = or unwillingness to displace an unreconstructed Qaddafi would give = succor to a number of groups, including al-Qaeda, that could seize chaos = in Libya and North Africa as an opportunity to extend their influence. = Indeed, Qaddafi=E2=80=99s threat to turn the Mediterranean into a zone = of instability is a reminder of precisely what a divided Libya could = yield.=20 Internal instability aside, there is another reason why selective = containment is unwise: it would severely constrain the international = community=E2=80=99s future options. It seems inevitable that EU and U.S. = efforts will successfully drive Qaddafi's forces from Benghazi. But = selective containment would require them to stop there. Given = Qaddafi=E2=80=99s rhetoric of the past few weeks, it seems unlikely that = they would be able to pressure him into any kind of settlement from such = a position. Further, it is improbable that, having achieved the limited = objective of securing Cyrenaica relatively quickly, the United Kingdom = and France, the leaders of the intervention forces, would be content to = settle rather than march on to Tripoli to dislodge Qaddafi himself.=20 Of course, the alternative, forcing Qaddafi out of power, is fraught = with its own problems and complications. Qaddafi=E2=80=99s departure = would leave behind a political vacuum that would need filling as soon as = possible. The choice of local interlocutors would be key. For all the = sympathy the international community may currently feel for the = opposition movement headed by the Libyan National Council, the = provisional government, it would have to be cautious about = unconditionally supporting it. Indeed, the threats that the LNC is = already issuing should give the international community doubts about its = readiness to lead in democratic government. Throughout the conflict, the = LNC has threatened that there will be dire consequences for those = countries in the West that had not sufficiently supported the rebel side = if it won. It is worth noting that although there is as yet no other opposition = group, the LNC is national only in its aspirations. Much of Tripolitania = still genuinely supports Qaddafi and would likely be resentful of = whatever took his place and refuse to join an LNC-led government. To = overcome antagonism between the provinces and to guide the country = through the arduous process of state building and reconstruction that = would follow Qaddafi=E2=80=99s departure, institutions would need to be = truly national and representative. Since the settling of scores seems = inevitable in Libya after decades of Qaddafi=E2=80=99s deliberate = divide-and-rule policies, the international community would need to help = establish a Libyan version of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission = that brought political opponents in South Africa to some kind of = understanding. Meanwhile, the international community would also have to = steer the development of democracy and good governance in a country that = has not known anything except tyranny for decades.=20 It is only such a process of democratization and reconstruction that = would truly lessen the salience of Libya=E2=80=99s enduring divisions. = The reintegration of Libya with its North African neighbors after = decades of self-enforced isolation under Qaddafi would also help. After = years of ostracism, reintegration in the region could bring some measure = of pride and responsibility to Libyans.=20 For all of this to happen, Libya, in addition to removing Qaddafi from = power, needs what Ashton called in her article a =E2=80=9CMarshall plan = for North Africa=E2=80=9D that would help a post-Qaddafi Libya (and = other countries in the region) start building their states, developing = their economies, and improving democratic governance through a number of = educational, economic, and political initiatives. Libya's survival as a = unified country will not only depend on how its own citizens deal with = its long-standing fissures but also on the careful planning of outside = powers. Unless the United States and the European Union reach a decision = quickly, they may wind up in a self-imposed stalemate that Qaddafi could = exploit. The international community needs a proactive agenda and a = clear plan for the intervention, starting now.=20 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67669/dirk-vandewalle/to-the-shore= s-of-tripoli?page=3Dshow=20 *************************************************************************= ********************************************* =20 David Ignatius (Washington Post): = Obama's Mideast opportunity CAIRO -- A young Egyptian journalist named Merette Ibrahim has come to = question visiting Defense Secretary Bob Gates at a roundtable = discussion. She's passionately idealistic about Egypt's new democracy, = and you might think she would be enthusiastic about President Obama, who = supports the political revolution under way here. But she isn't: She = says she finds Obama and his policies confusing. Welcome to a growing club. This is a president who promotes change but = is failing to articulate it in a way that would convince young Arabs. = The Egyptian journalists I met here cited these contradictions: Obama is = against military intervention in Libya until he's for it; he supports = Egypt's Hosni Mubarak until he says it's time for him to resign = immediately; he promises a breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian peace = negotiations but delivers nothing. There's a logic to Obama's positions, but it's not easy to explain to an = Arab world caught up in the throes of a revolution. It may be, as his = aides argue, that Obama is being deliberately low-key because he wants = to keep America out of the narrative. But this quietism isn't working = very well. What Obama is achieving, instead, is a fuzzy narrative. He = seems to be bending to history, rather than shaping it. The best outsider's comment I've heard about the scope of change comes = from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, of all people. In response to = my question Thursday, he likened the convulsions shaking the Arab world = to the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I or the end of the = French mandate in the Levant after World War II. Now, think about that analogy for a moment: What's the comparable fallen = empire whose client states are now in retreat? Why, that would seem to = be America. The regimes that have collapsed so far have been aligned = with American hegemony. As the revolution spreads to Syria and hopefully = Iran, this formula may change. But Barak's historical analogy should = worry Obama. It's not too late for Obama to seize this remarkable moment and shape it = through his leadership. Here are some of the things I wish he would say = and do in coming weeks, so that my Egyptian journalist colleagues will = understand America's role better: -- First, the president should do everything he can to help the Egyptian = revolution succeed. This is the cornerstone of positive change, and if = it disintegrates into political and economic chaos, it will be a tragic = setback. Egypt badly needs two things right now to avoid the ditch into = which revolutions historically fall: a broad program of economic = assistance to avoid the crash that's almost inevitable, otherwise; and = security help (things like police training) to keep post-revolutionary = disorder in check. Cairo seems fragile. Tourism is off 75 percent, police are in disarray, = and trash is piling up again near Tahrir Square. An apartment building = in the Garden City neighborhood that used to keep its front door open = now locks it each night. In dealing with these problems, America should = work through its allies, who have cleaner hands. -- Second, Obama shouldn't be shy about defending America's friends, = even when they are conservative monarchies and have lots of oil. The = United Arab Emirates may not be a perfect place, but it's a lot freer = and more progressive than Iran, say, or Russia or China. Saudi Arabia = has its problems, but it isn't an Iran-style menace, either. Encouraging = change doesn't mean throwing a stick of dynamite into the oil barrel and = blowing up the world economy. -- Third, Obama should encourage the anti-Gaddafi coalition to shift the = Libya war from a high-visibility military campaign, with screaming = fighter-bombers, to a covert paramilitary effort conducted mostly in the = shadows. Think of the intelligence-led campaign to topple the Taliban in = Afghanistan. Arabs want Gaddafi out, but they don't want another Iraq in = the process. -- Finally, Obama should go to the Middle East and embrace this moment. = I understand his desire to stay out of the limelight, but it's proving = to be a mistake. This is a world-historical event, as powerful as the = fall of the Berlin Wall, and one for which Obama's whole life and = experience have prepared him. He shouldn't play rope-a-dope with = history. He should go to Cairo, and Bahrain and Damascus, too, if he = can. He should listen to what people say -- and speak to them, in his = authentic, powerful and necessary American voice. Ignatius is a foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Post. Contact = him at davidignatius@washpost.com. http://www.indystar.com/article/20110327/OPINION12/103270337/1002/OPINION= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************** = Social Policy=20 = People are not unintelligent, merely uninformed = =20 Freudenberg-Pilster The Key Is Not in Libya Rechtsanw=C3=A4ltin- Staatssekret=C3=A4rin a.D. =20 Contrary to headlines and official pronouncements, the most important = event in the Middle East last week was neither the U.N. Security Council = resolution authorizing the use of force against Libya nor the = commencement of the air strikes. Despite being relegated to the = background, the plebiscite in Egypt establishing the basis for genuine = democratic order; the stalled attempt to usher in a constitutional rule = in Bahrain; and the ongoing turmoil in Yemen remain the more critical = regional developments.=20 It is the events in the heart of the Arab world and not the disposition = of Muammar el-Qaddafi=E2=80=99s distant penal colony that will determine = the future of the Middle East for generations to come. The challenge for = Washington is how to sustain the momentum of the Arab Spring while = dealing with the Libyan imbroglio.=20 All this is not to ignore or discount an obvious reality: The = international community has made a prolonged commitment to Libya. = President Obama has called on Qaddafi to leave while the Security = Council has declared its mission to be the protection of all Libyan = civilians.=20 The first temptation of any administration seeking to limit its = participation in an unpredictable and protracted conflict is to enlarge = its coalition. As such, Washington and its European allies took great = comfort in the endorsement of the Arab League =E2=80=94 an organization = uniquely devoid of moral authority or military capability.=20 A league of autocrats and despots is part of the problem and not the = solution to the region=E2=80=99s difficulties. Though the Arab League = provides a political umbrella that Western leaders seem to think they = need, it is important not to scale back the calls for reform. The cause = of anti-Libya alliance should not diminish the more significant = challenge of pressing the Arab states toward adjustment of their = national compacts.=20 The key to sustaining the momentum of the Arab Spring is still in Egypt = and Saudi Arabia. Egypt is the epicenter of the Arab world, and = developments in Cairo have historically resonated throughout the region. = The task is to continuously press the Egyptian military on its existing = path of gradually yielding authority to a civilian government. The fact = that the Egyptian army maybe called upon to police Libya=E2=80=99s = borders and skies should not dissuade the United States from pressuring = it to abide by its declared commitments.=20 Throughout the post-colonial period, Egypt has established the political = template that has been widely emulated throughout the region. From = pan-Arabism to Islamism, Egypt=E2=80=99s model has always defined Arab = politics. The sight of the military peacefully yielding to a = democratically elected civilian government will have an enduring impact = on the region=E2=80=99s struggling reformers. Should Egypt establish a = governing system that is representative and accountable, it can lead the = Arab world in a progressive direction.=20 No less important is Saudi Arabia. Ironically, at a time when the Middle = East is becoming polarized along sectarian lines, no state has a greater = capacity to heal this breach then Saudi Arabia. Thus far, the House of = Saud=E2=80=99s response to the Arab awakening has been to deny reforms = at home while casting Bahrain=E2=80=99s struggle for representation as a = sectarian plot concocted by Iran=E2=80=99s Shiite theocrats.=20 For too long, Washington has indulged Saudi mischief because of its = reliance on the kingdom=E2=80=99s oil and its support for a variety of = American objectives such as containment of Iran and the Arab-Israeli = peace process. It is time to reinvent U.S.-Saudi relations.=20 Riyadh can be instrumental in advancing the cause of stability in the = Gulf should it move away from its zero-sum confrontation with Iran and = intolerant obsession with the Shiites. The reality is that the Shiite = population of the Gulf is neither enchanted by the Islamic Republic nor = sees itself as an agent of Tehran. The struggle in Bahrain, as with the = rest of the Middle East, is about economic justice and political = representation.=20 Should the United States succeed in nudging the Saudi ruling elite away = from its reflexive opposition to change, it can take an important step = toward not just diminishing sectarian cleavages but also modernizing the = Gulf=E2=80=99s politics.=20 Hovering over all this is the question whether the United States can = disaggregate Libya from its larger Middle East policy. In practical = terms this implies a power-sharing arrangement between the U.S. and its = European allies. Washington is already managing two wars and must focus = its remaining efforts on political reform and economic rehabilitation of = the Arab states.=20 Given the recent United Nations resolution, the West has a moral = commitment to the nascent Libyan opposition. But given America=E2=80=99s = taxing obligations and its need to concentrate on the larger Middle = East, it is Europe that has to bear the burden of Libya=E2=80=99s = emancipation.=20 Ray Takeyhis a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/opinion/30iht-edTakeyh30.html =20 = *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ***************************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ******************************************* = Politics: from Vision to Action =E2=80=A6 good governance: focus on sharing = benefits, not ownership - setting rules, monitoring, binding methods of = settling disputes =E2=80=A6 = *** =20 Barandat Iraqi Kurdistan building 11 dams, 28 more = planned =20 Bundeswehr =20 ARBIL, Mar 24, 2011 (AFP) - Authorities in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan = area are building 11 dams and plan dozens more, the region's agriculture = minister said Thursday, a move that could raise tensions over water.=20 "There are 11 dams now under construction," Jameel Sulaiman told AFP. = "We have studies and designs to build 28 more," he added.=20 He said the dams currently under construction in three provinces of = Kurdistan were "small and medium size," with storage capacities ranging = between one million cubic metres (35 million cubic feet) to 10 million = cubic metres.=20 He added that four were being built in Arbil, five in Sulaimaniyah and = two in Dohuk, but did not say when they would be completed.=20 "We are building these dams in order to develop the agriculture sector = in the region, and for water storage, because Iraq has suffered droughts = for the past several years," Sulaiman said.=20 Water is a major source of tension in Iraq, especially between the = Kurdistan region and other provinces.=20 In the multi-ethnic Kirkuk province, Arab farmers accuse the Kurdistan = region of ruining them by closing the valves to a dam in winter.=20 A growing water deficit and dams built by Iraq's neighbours have = significantly reduced the water flow in a country that was until the = late 1950s a breadbasket of the Arab world.=20 A UN factsheet in October 2010 showed that while more rain fell in 2009 = compared with 2008, the water situation in Iraq is still critical. = Rainfall is now 50 percent below average.=20 http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm?id=3DANA20110324T141758ZEAT05&l=3D14180211= 0324&zawyaemailmarketing *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ********************************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ********************************************** ISN (Zurich): Libya: AFRICOM's Combat = Christening The current intervention underway in Libya is the inaugural combat = mission for the US military's AFRICOM. While the Command's professed = primary objective has been to strengthen security cooperation with = African countries, many in sub-Saharan Africa see a more ominous agenda = at work. After World War II, the US military carved up the globe outside its = borders into a series of Unified Combatant Commands (UCC) to project = military power and safeguard interests abroad. The UCC "areas of = responsibility" include United States Pacific Command (PACOM, founded = 1947 in the wake of the Pacific War), United States European Command = (EUCOM, founded the same year), United States Southern Command (SOCOM, = founded in 1963 in the wake of deteriorating relations with Cuba) and = United States Central Command (CENTCOM, 1983), covering most of Eurasia. = In 2008 they were joined by a fifth UCC when the United States Africa = Command (AFRICOM) became operational. Except for Egypt, which remains = under CENTCOM administration, AFRICOM is responsible for overseeing US = military operations and relations across the whole African continent and = the island nations of Cape Verde, S=C3=A3o Tom=C3=A9 and Pr=C3=ADncipe, = the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles. Prior to the = establishment of AFRICOM, responsibility for continental Africa was = divided between EUCOM and CENTCOM, while PACOM had responsibility for = Madagascar, the Comoros and Mauritius.=20 AFRICOM was established with the stated intention of strengthening = "security cooperation with Africa and creating opportunities to bolster = the capabilities of our partners in Africa. Africa Command will enhance = our efforts to bring peace and security to the people of Africa and = promote our common goals of development, health, education, democracy, = and economic growth in Africa."=20 The Libya conflict marks AFRICOM's inaugural military combat operation. = The Africa Command joins CENTCOM military operations in Iraq and = Afghanistan as the third major US combat operation in the Muslim world = in the last decade.=20 Promoting security - or a scramble for resources?=20 Some analysts have pointed to the creation of a specific Africa Command = as testimony to the growing strategic importance of Africa to US = interests. Terrorism has ranked among Washington's chief security = concerns on the continent in recent decades, driven primarily by the = 1998 attacks on the US embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, = Kenya and the post-9/11 global "war on terror". Following 9/11, the US = military undertook anti-terrorist operations in the Sahel (the = east-to-west belt between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian = Savanna to the south) and established a military presence in Djibouti. = US troops have also helped train anti-terrorism forces in Algeria, Chad, = Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda among other = countries.=20 AFRICOM detractors have remained skeptical about the Command's true = intentions, arguing that furthering access to Africa's vast natural = resources, particularly oil, and offsetting China's expansive investment = in the continent over the last decade are among the US' chief strategic = interests there. Indeed, Africa contains tremendous mineral wealth, huge = hydro-electrical power reserves and significantly underdeveloped = offshore resources. The majority of the world's diamonds, gold and = chromium are produced in countries at the southern end of the continent. = Africa's mineral riches include copper, bauxite, phosphate, uranium, = tin, iron ore, cobalt and titanium.=20 Of these myriad resources, however, nothing has captured foreign = interests as much as oil. By 2013, African oil production is projected = to rise to 10.7-11.4 million barrels per day (bpd), and by 2018 to = 12.4-14.5 million bpd. The US is currently Nigeria's biggest oil = importer, and the National Intelligence Council predicts that imports = from the Gulf of Guinea will increase to more than 25 percent of all US = imports by 2015.=20 The US, however, is in increasing competition with China for access to = Africa's vast natural resource holdings. In fact, China has overtaken = the US to become Africa's largest trading partner, particularly in oil, = accounting for 73 percent of African exports. In 1995, Chinese imports = from Africa were worth $1.4 billion; 11 years later, their value had = soared to $28.7 billion, a 2,000 percent increase.=20 Regional perceptions=20 From its founding, African perceptions about AFRICOM's ultimate = intentions were mixed, and opinion was largely bifurcated - like the = continent itself - by the Sahara desert. The Arabic Maghreb, bordering = the southern shore of the Mediterranean, came out largely in support of = AFRICOM; detractors were mostly from black Africa to the south. African = governments, along with many observers in the West, expressed their = concerns that AFRICOM was actually a stealth operation to extend US = military control across the continent with an eye toward dominating its = resources and keeping a closer eye on key competitors like China.=20 A 2007 US Congressional Research Service report on the creation of = AFRICOM laid bare the concerns of many African governments:=20 There has been considerable apprehension over US motivations for = creating AFRICOM, and some Africans worry that the move represents a = neocolonial effort to dominate the region militarily. US military = efforts on the continent have been seen as episodic, leading some to = question a more sustained focus from DOD [the US Department of Defense] = now. Reports of US air strikes in Somalia in recent years and US support = for Ethiopia's military intervention there have added to those concerns. = Many view US counter-terrorism efforts in Africa with skepticism, and = there appears to be a widespread belief that the new command's primary = goals will be to hunt terrorists and to secure US access to African oil. = US foreign policy analysts have focused increased attention on China's = role in Africa in recent years, and such attention has led some to = question whether an Africa Command might be part of a new contest for = influence on the continent.=20 In the intervening years, not much seems to have changed: In the = "frequently asked questions" section of its website, AFRICOM is almost = too quick to ask and answer inquries about an alleged agenda to control = Africa's resources, replying to queries like, "Is this [AFRICOM] an = effort by the United States to gain access to natural resources (e.g. = petroleum)? Is this [AFRICOM] in response to Chinese activities in = Africa?" with a simple "No." But African countries apparently remain = unconvinced: Liberia is the only one of the 53 countries covered by = AFRICOM's mandate to publicly offer to host the Command - until now, its = headquarters have been in Stuttgart, Germany.=20 The ongoing operation in Libya only seems to be reinforcing the notion = that AFRICOM is intent on promoting US strategic interests - not = bringing "peace and security to the people of Africa" as per its mission = statement.=20 The Nigerian Foreign Minister Odein Ajumogobia pointed to what he viewed = as the capriciousness of the Libyan mission: "The contradictions between = principle and national interest ... have enabled the international = community to impose a no-fly zone over Libya ostensibly to protect = innocent civilians from slaughter, but to watch seemingly helplessly (in = Ivory Coast) as ...men, women and children are slaughtered in equally, = even if less egregious, violence."=20 South African President Jacob Zuma stated firmly that his country said = "no to the killing of civilians, no to the regime-change doctrine and no = to the foreign occupation of Libya or any other sovereign state." This, = even as his country, one of the non-permanent members of the UN Security = Council, voted for the resolution to impose a no-fly zone over Libya.=20 It appears, then, that AFRICOM's inaugural mission - to help establish a = no-fly zone over Libya - has not only failed to convince sub-Saharan = Africa of its stated intentions to help promote peace and stability = across the region, but may actually serve to enhance resistance to US = military presence on the continent.=20 http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=3Den&i= d=3D127973&contextid734=3D127973&contextid735=3D127972&tabid=3D1279721279= 73=20 =20 *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************************************ *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************************************************************ = Middle East: Alert = sharing news on global affairs / oil / gas / politics = =20 = Syria's chaos has big implications for U.S. = =20 WASHINGTON Even as the Obama administration tries to explain and defend = the NATO-led action in Libya, the latest violent clashes in Jordan and = Syria are raising new alarm among U.S. officials who view those = countries, in the heartland of the Arab world, as far more vital to = Western interests. Deepening chaos in Syria, in particular, could dash any remaining hopes = for a Middle East peace agreement, several analysts said. It could also = alter the U.S. rivalry with Iran for influence in the region and pose = challenges for the United States' greatest ally in the region, Israel. In interviews, administration officials said they were trying to gauge = the seriousness of the latest Syrian uprising, though they have = confirmed that the protests have been widespread, involving different = ethnic groups in both the southern and coastal regions of Syria. The new = U.S. ambassador in Damascus, Robert Ford, has been quietly reaching out = to President Bashar Assad to urge him to stop firing on his people. As U.S. officials confront the sudden upheaval in Syria, they say they = are pulled between fears that the country's problems could destabilize = neighboring states such as Lebanon and Israel, and the hope that it = could seriously weaken one of Iran's key allies. For years, the United States has tried to coax Syria into negotiating a = peace deal with Israel and to moving away from Iran - a largely = fruitless effort that has left the Obama administration open to = criticism on Capitol Hill that it is cozying up to one of the most = repressive governments in the Arab world. The unrest there - and in Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel - = could leave Israel further isolated. The Israeli government was already = rattled by the overthrow of Egypt's leader, Hosni Mubarak, worrying that = a new government might not be as committed to peace with Israel. While Israel has largely managed to avoid being drawn into the regional = turmoil, last week's bombing of a bus in Jerusalem, which killed one = person and wounded 30, and increased rocket attacks from Gaza, have = fanned fears that the militant group Hamas might seize the moment to try = to destabilize Israel. With security forces killing dozens of protesters, Syria is now living = up to its notorious reputation, begun by Assad's father and predecessor, = Hafez Assad. And the White House, which sent an ambassador back for the = first time since 2005, is being forced to change its calculations. "Whatever credibility the government had, they shot it today - = literally," said a senior administration official, speaking on the = condition that he not be named. In the process, this official said, Assad has disqualified himself as a = peace partner for Israel. Such a prospect had seemed a long shot in any = event - Israel's right-wing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has = shown no inclination to talk to Assad - but the administration kept = working at it. Its special envoy to the Middle East, George J. Mitchell, = has been a regular visitor to Damascus. "You can't have comprehensive peace in the Middle East without Syria," = the official said. "It's definitely in our interest to pursue an = agreement, but you can't do with a government that has no credibility = with its population." The crackdown calls into question the entire U.S. engagement with Syria, = which has gone beyond the peace process. Last June, the State Department organized a delegation of technology = executives from Microsoft, Dell and Cisco Systems to visit Assad with = the message that he could attract more foreign investment if he stopped = censoring social networks like Facebook and Twitter. While the administration renewed economic sanctions on Syria, it eased = restrictions on export licenses for aircraft. A key congressional ally of the administration, Sen. John Kerry of = Massachusetts, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, = has also visited Damascus frequently and advocated engagement with = Syria. Kerry was out of the country and unavailable for comment, his = spokesman said. The Bush administration, by contrast, largely shunned Syria, recalling = its ambassador in 2005 after the assassination of a former Lebanese = prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Many Lebanese accuse Syria of involvement = in the assassination, a charge it denies. An international tribunal is = close to handing out indictments in the case. When President Barack Obama named Ford as his envoy to Syria last year, = Republicans in the Senate held up the nomination for months, arguing = that the United States should not reward Syria with closer ties. = Administration officials responded that they could influence Syria's = behavior by having a senior diplomat in the Syrian capital. But they also concede that Assad has been an endless source of = frustration - deepening ties with Iran and the Islamic militant group = Hezbollah, to which Syria is suspected of shipping Scud missiles; = undermining the government of Saad Hariri in Lebanon; pursuing a nuclear = program that would have destabilized the whole region; and failing to = deliver on promises of political reform. Last week, they pointed with ridicule to an interview that Assad gave to = The Wall Street Journal in January, after the uprisings in Tunisia and = Egypt, in which he portrayed himself as a reformer and claimed that = Syria had been spared protests because his government was "very closely = linked to the beliefs of the people."=20 =20 http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/03/27/2175276/syrias-chaos-has-big-= implications.html *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *********************************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *********************************************** = =20 Massenbach'sRecommendation =20 Conflict Risk Alert: Syria =E2=80=9CAfter decades of colonialism followed by authoritarian rule, = the Middle East and North Africa are facing a new phenomenon: a demand = for governments based on popular legitimacy.=E2=80=9D=20 Syria is at what is rapidly becoming a defining moment for its = leadership. There are only two options. One involves an immediate and = inevitably risky political initiative that might convince the Syrian = people that the regime is willing to undertake dramatic change. The = other entails escalating repression, which has every chance of leading = to a bloody and ignominious end. Already, the unfolding confrontation in = the southern city of Deraa gives no sign of quieting, despite some = regime concessions, forceful security measures and mounting casualties. = For now, this remains a geographically isolated tragedy. But it also = constitutes an ominous precedent with widespread popular resonance that = could soon be repeated elsewhere.=20 The regime faces three inter-related challenges. First is a diffuse but = deep sense of fatigue within society at large, combined with a new = unwillingness to tolerate what Syrians had long grown accustomed to -- = namely the arrogance of power in its many forms, including brutal = suppression of any dissent, the official media=E2=80=99s crude = propaganda and vague promises of future reform. As a result of events = elsewhere in the region, a new awareness and audacity have materialised = over the past several weeks in myriad forms of rebelliousness, large and = small, throughout the country. Secondly, at the heart of virtually any locality in the nation is a long = list of specific grievances. These typically involve a combination: = rising cost of living, failing state services, unemployment, corruption = and a legacy of abuse by security services. In a number of places, = religious fundamentalism, sectarianism or Kurdish nationalism also form = an integral part of the mix. In others, the depletion of water resources = and devastation of the agriculture sector add to the tensions.=20 The third challenge relates to the regime=E2=80=99s many genuine = enemies, all of whom undoubtedly will seek to seize this rare = opportunity to precipitate its demise. Authorities have ascribed much of = the strife to the exiled opposition, home-grown jihadi elements, local = =E2=80=9Caliens=E2=80=9D (notably residents of Palestinian and Kurdish = descent) and hostile foreign parties (notably U.S., Israeli, Lebanese = and Saudi).=20 As a result, the regime claims to be fighting critical threats to = national unity, such as foreign interference, ethnic secessionism and = sectarian retribution. It also stresses the illegitimacy of exiled = Syrians they accuse of stirring unrest -- some of whom, in fairness, are = suspected of crimes no less deserving of investigation than those of the = officials they seek to replace.=20 All this unquestionably forms part of the picture. But these factors are = intertwined with others, far more difficult to define or to manage -- a = popular desire for long overdue, far-reaching change; the simultaneous = expression of numerous legitimate demands; and a growing belief that the = regime is incapable of shifting from a logic of entitlement and survival = to one of accountability. The current blend of mounting repression, = blatant disinformation, minor concessions and presidential silence is = quickly hardening negative perceptions.=20 A window of opportunity still exists to change these dynamics, although = it is fast closing. Unlike most of his peers in the region, President = Bashar Assad has accumulated significant political capital, and many = Syrians are willing, for now, to give him the benefit of the doubt. In = fact, a broad range of citizens =E2=80=93 including members of the = security apparatus =E2=80=93 are desperately waiting for him to take the = lead and to propose, before it is too late, an alternative to spiraling = confrontation. Although he has held numerous consultations and sent some = signals of impending reform through the foreign media and other = officials, he has yet to assume clear and palpable leadership. Instead, faced with an unprecedented, multi-faceted, fast-paced and = critical challenge, the power apparatus at best is implementing chaotic = steps that convey a sense of confusion, at worst is reacting according = to well-ingrained habits. Left to its own devices, it will send = precisely the wrong messages to a population that will not wait much = longer for the regime to get its act together and to put forward a = comprehensive and credible vision. At this point, only one thing can = change swiftly, dramatically and effectively for the better, and that is = the president=E2=80=99s own attitude.=20 President Assad must show visible leadership and do so now. His = political capital today depends less on his past foreign policy = successes than on his ability to live up to popular expectations at a = time of dangerous domestic crisis. Meanwhile, repression perpetrated = under his responsibility is costing him dearly. He alone can prove that = change is possible and already in the making, restore some sense of = clarity and direction to a bewildered power apparatus and put forward a = detailed framework for structural change. This should include several = steps: a.. The President should speak openly and directly to his people, = recognise the challenges described above, stress the unacceptable and = counterproductive nature of repression, offer condolences to the = families of victims, order a serious, transparent investigation into the = violence in Deraa, present a package of measures for immediate = implementation and suggest an inclusive mechanism for discussing more = far-reaching reforms.=20 b.. He should announce the following, immediate measures: release of = all political prisoners; lifting of the emergency law; authorisation of = peaceful demonstrations; opening of new channels for the expression of = complaints, given lack of trust in local officials; and action on the = many cases of corruption that already have been compiled by the security = apparatus but lie dormant due to nepotistic intervention.=20 c.. Upcoming parliamentary elections should be postponed pending a = referendum on sweeping constitutional amendments which should be = discussed with a wide and inclusive range of Syrians. Deeper change = requires broad consultation and cannot be arbitrarily implemented. Many within the regime argue against such a radical course of action. = Their points might appear logical, but none should carry the day: The regime has never responded to pressure, and this time-honoured = principle has always served it well over the years, particularly in = times of crisis.=20 While this might have been true in the past, the current situation = involves an entirely different and unprecedented kind of pressure, one = that is relentless and grounded in deep-seated popular feelings. If = resisted, it will only swell. This is not a time for business as usual = or for standing still when all around is moving. Any concessions are likely to be viewed as inadequate and only fuel = additional demands.=20 This almost certainly will be the case. And it is why any initiative = must go all the way, from the outset. Only by doing so might the = president convince the people that change is real. The question, in = other words, is whether the regime can accept fundamental change. If it = cannot, it is headed toward a bloody confrontation.=20 People do not know what they really want and express endless demands, = some of which are unacceptable.=20 Again, this likely is true and, after years of suppression, wide-ranging = aspirations cannot but be expressed. But the lack of a clear popular = vision for orderly change offers the president the chance to convince = citizens of the merits of his own.=20 The regime=E2=80=99s enemies are stirring things up and must be subdued = before they do more damage.=20 In reality, none of the regime=E2=80=99s enemies possess enough support = or influence in Syria to mount a critical threat. At best, they can try = to make use of broad popular anger and steer it to their advantage. But = by focusing on =E2=80=9Cenemies=E2=80=9D, the regime is giving them more = space while deepening popular discontent.=20 There is, in short, reason to question whether a dramatic approach will = prevail. But it is the only realistic way to avoid a perilous = confrontation.=20 After decades of colonialism followed by authoritarian rule, the Middle = East and North Africa are facing a new phenomenon: a demand for = governments based on popular legitimacy. Rulers in Syria or elsewhere = can pass this test of leadership, or they can fail it. Bashar Assad has = important assets; he retains significant political capital measured by = regional standards, and it is high time that he spends it. As each day = goes by, repression will both dissipate that capital and increase = popular demands, making constructive action all the more difficult. = Hunkering down and waiting for the storm to pass may have served the = regime well in days past. But now, it must fight against those instincts = if it wants to preserve the possibility of a peaceful outcome.=20 http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/confli= ct-risk-alert-syria.aspx=20 *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************* *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ************************* Arab News: Saudis in private firms demand trade = union 27 March 2011 JEDDAH: Saudi workers in the private sector are demanding the = establishment of a workers union or a similar body to protect their = rights.=20 While collective bargaining is illegal in Saudi Arabia, some Saudis are = saying they should be able to form a body based on the model of the = Saudi Journalists Association or the Saudi Retirees Association and that = it should be governed by an elected body. Business owners would be = banned from being members of such an organization under this proposal. Nasser Al-Jadaani, a car company worker, said workers need their own = advocacy group to fight for their rights to have a minimum wage, = incremental salary increases and merit-based promotions and annual = bonuses. "Currently we are at the mercy of company managers who would grant us a = salary hike or bonus only if we grovel," he said. "Under this = humiliating situation, dedicated Saudi workers are sidelined and they = remain forever at the salary on which they started work. They will never = get any promotion while those who flatter the bosses are given pay = raises and bonuses. I don't mean that all companies are like that. I = know that there are a few exceptions that have a salary scale applicable = to all workers and fixed conditions for promotion," Al-Jadaani added. Recently, the Saudi government announced a minimum wage and two-month = salary bonus for government workers. But in the private sector, wages = and bonuses are completely at the discretion of employers. Furthermore, = the huge presence of foreign workers who are bound to their employers = under the sponsorship system acts as a wage suppressor that compels = job-seeking Saudis in the private sector to compete with the lower wages = foreign workers are paid. Fahd Al-Sultan, a 33-year-old real estate company worker, justified the = need for a trade union of Saudi employees in the private sector, saying = most companies and establishments in the Kingdom adopt a negative = approach toward Saudi workers. "How can a Saudi employee -- who knows for sure that his employer will = not ever give him a raise and whose wages hardly suffice to feed his = family -- dedicate himself in his work?" Al-Sultan asked. "The solution = to this problem is providing workers the motivation to work hard. That = is why they should have an incremental salary pattern, with defined = working hours and with provision for paid overtime work." Mamdouh Al-Maraashi, a private school teacher in his twenties, urged = that effective and quick steps should be taken to end the suffering of = Saudi employees in the private sector. "The establishment of a labor = union would enable the workers to find solutions to the problems that = they endure," he said. "New laws and regulations to protect the rights = of private Saudi workers should be in place." Al-Maraashi pointed out that such an organization could also act as a = third-party watchdog against companies that skirt Saudization rules, the = law that assigns job quota for Saudis. Faisal Al-Surae, an employee of a = petrochemical company, agreed, stressing the need for a Saudi workers = union that has the authority to go after companies that illegally go = around hiring Saudis to fill their Saudization quotas. He also stressed = that workers in the private sector should have the same rights as those = working for the government, which is the largest employer of Saudis. Bank employee Nasser Al-Abdali said an organization dedicated to = collective barraging, unlike the individual worker, can hire lawyers in = the event of arbitrary dismissal of a worker by a company. "A dismissed employee hardly gets or can get justice, and if so only = after years," he said. "This is because a worker cannot afford to hire = good lawyers to represent him. On the other hand, a company is protected = by its legal advisers who can make life hell for a worker who complains = against the company." Ministry of Labor spokesman Hattab Al-Anazi said the ministry is aware = of the needs of all employees. The ministry last year set up a committee = under Nidal Radwan, an employee of Saudi Telecom Co., to pave the way = for the establishment of a national council for workers. The committee = held several meetings to lay down the basic statutes, including the = election regulations for the board of directors of that national = council. http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm?id=3DZAWYA20110327030352&l=3D030300110327&= zawyaemailmarketing =20 *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ******************************************** *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= *************************************************************************= ******************************************** see our letter on: http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html Wir w=C3=BCnschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende. Ihr Team. *************************************************************************= **************************************** Udo von Massenbach - B=C3=A4rbel Freudenberg-Pilster - J=C3=B6rg = Barandat =20 UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de Mail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de =20 JoergBarandat@yahoo.de ------=_NextPart_001_012C_01CBEFA7.CC8ADAA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Guten Morgen.
 
= The Key=20 Is Not in Libya
 
Sweden wants to contribute eight fighter jets to Libya:=20 PM

STOCKHOLM, Mar 29, 2011 (AFP) - Swedish Prime = Minister=20 Fredrik Reinfeldt on Tuesday said the government would put before = parliament a=20 proposal to contribute eight Gripen fighter jets to help enforce the = no-fly zone=20 in Libya.

=C2=A9 = Copyright AFP=20 2011.=20

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidANA20110329T112104ZETC18= /Sweden%20wants%20to%20contribute%20eight%20fighter%20jets%20to%20Libya%3= A%20PM
 
 
see our letter again = on: http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html
 
Intern. Crisis=20 Group: Conflict=20 Risk Alert: Syria
CharlotteObserver: Syria's=20 chaos has big implications for = U.S.
David Ignatius (Washington Post): Obama's=20 Mideast opportunity 
ISN: Libya:=20 AFRICOM's Combat Christening
 
Massenbach    = ;            =         =20 Foreign Affairs: = To the Shores of=20 Tripoli
Publicist        =             &= nbsp;    =20 Why Operation Odyssey Dawn Should Not Stop At=20 Benghazi 

As Catherine Ashton, the European = Union's high=20 representative for foreign affairs and security policy, wrote in a March = 18,=20 2011, New York Times editorial about the European = Union=E2=80=99s options in=20 Libya, =E2=80=9Csometimes the toughest question in world politics is: = =E2=80=98And then what?=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D=20 In light of the furious pace of the negotiations surrounding the = previous day=E2=80=99s=20 adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1973 -- which extended a = no-fly zone=20 over Libya and authorized the international community to take whatever=20 additional measures necessary to protect the country's population short = of=20 sending ground troops -- it is not surprising that no one had really = stopped to=20 consider her question. Indeed, more time seems to have been spent = getting the=20 European Union, the Arab League, the G-8, and the Security Council to = agree on=20 the language than on the content. Still, if those hurried diplomatic=20 negotiations seemed a Herculean task, they may pale in comparison to the = challenge that comes next: keeping Libya intact and on the road to=20 recovery.

For his part, U.S. President Barack = Obama promised=20 that intervention would be short -- a matter of "days, not weeks." And = British=20 Prime Minister David Cameron admonished that international involvement = should be=20 limited to stopping Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi=E2=80=99s violence. Both = caveats will=20 prove unrealistic.

At this point, the international = community has two=20 options: to either protect the opposition movement in Cyrenaica, the = vast=20 eastern province in which Benghazi is located, but not force Qaddafi out = of=20 power, or make Qaddafi=E2=80=99s ouster an explicit goal. The former = seems to be what=20 Cameron had in mind when he spoke of selective containment -- perhaps in = an=20 attempt to sanitize international involvement. It was also echoed in = Obama's=20 call for short-term intervention. Still, this kind of containment is = neither=20 possible nor feasible. Indeed, it would defeat the very logic of = Resolution=20 1973.

Of course, ongoing military strikes = will=20 undoubtedly strengthen the rebels=E2=80=99 resolve. Seeing the = destruction wreaked by=20 the international coalition, Qaddafi loyalists are unlikely to put up = much=20 opposition. Even if the strikes stopped in the course of a cease-fire, = rebels=20 would likely take advantage of Qaddafi=E2=80=99s weakness to try to push = the remnants of=20 his assault forces westward, reigniting the fighting.

If international action simply = contained Qaddafi by=20 halting his advance, he would be left in control of Tripolitania, the=20 northwestern province in which Tripoli is located, leaving Cyrenaica = effectively=20 independent. The two provinces are divided by long-standing tensions. = Qaddafi=20 historically neglected the economy of Cyrenaica, because he judged the = tribes in=20 those areas to be potentially disloyal. And tensions between the two = provinces=20 were further exacerbated by Qaddafi=E2=80=99s attempts to play each off = the other in=20 order to stay in power. Protecting half of the country while leaving the = other=20 to Qaddafi would harden the provinces=E2=80=99 resolve to go their own = ways. And=20 economically speaking, that would be possible; both provinces have oil = fields to=20 rely on for revenue.

But politically speaking, such a = division would be=20 disastrous. In Tripolitania, Qaddafi would still have the resources and=20 territory to continue to wage war against the opposition. If the brutal = state=20 terrorism Qaddafi instituted in the 1980s to secure Libya=E2=80=99 = position in the=20 region is any indication, he would not hesitate to do so. Even if he = does=20 observe a future cease-fire, selective containment would allow him to = play a=20 long-term cat-and-mouse game, stopping violence while surreptitiously = extending=20 his reach into the eastern part of the country by manipulating or buying = such=20 Cyrenaican tribes as the Warfalla, a powerful group that has so far = adopted a=20 cautious wait-and-see policy.

Meanwhile, the weapons that flowed = through Libya=E2=80=99s=20 porous borders and into the hands of Cyrenaican opposition forces during = the=20 anti-Qaddafi campaign will leave the regional tribes substantially more = powerful=20 than before. Having suffered through Qaddafi=E2=80=99s violence against = them and then=20 emboldened by Western intervention on their behalf, they would be ready = to fight=20 back at all cost. Thus the specter of all-out intertribal and = interprovincial=20 warfare would rise once more.

A Libya with Qaddafi in even partial = control would=20 be unacceptable to the international community; the country would be = highly=20 unstable and a real liability to North Africa and Europe. The = world=E2=80=99s inability=20 or unwillingness to displace an unreconstructed Qaddafi would give = succor to a=20 number of groups, including al-Qaeda, that could seize chaos in Libya = and North=20 Africa as an opportunity to extend their influence. Indeed, = Qaddafi=E2=80=99s threat to=20 turn the Mediterranean into a zone of instability is a reminder of = precisely=20 what a divided Libya could yield.

Internal instability aside, there is = another reason=20 why selective containment is unwise: it would severely constrain the=20 international community=E2=80=99s future options. It seems inevitable = that EU and U.S.=20 efforts will successfully drive Qaddafi's forces from Benghazi. But = selective=20 containment would require them to stop there. Given Qaddafi=E2=80=99s = rhetoric of the=20 past few weeks, it seems unlikely that they would be able to pressure = him into=20 any kind of settlement from such a position. Further, it is improbable = that,=20 having achieved the limited objective of securing Cyrenaica relatively = quickly,=20 the United Kingdom and France, the leaders of the intervention forces, = would be=20 content to settle rather than march on to Tripoli to dislodge Qaddafi = himself.=20

Of course, the alternative, forcing = Qaddafi out of=20 power, is fraught with its own problems and complications. = Qaddafi=E2=80=99s departure=20 would leave behind a political vacuum that would need filling as soon as = possible. The choice of local interlocutors would be key. For all the = sympathy=20 the international community may currently feel for the opposition = movement=20 headed by the Libyan National Council, the provisional government, it = would have=20 to be cautious about unconditionally supporting it. Indeed, the threats = that the=20 LNC is already issuing should give the international community doubts = about its=20 readiness to lead in democratic government. Throughout the conflict, the = LNC has=20 threatened that there will be dire consequences for those countries in = the West=20 that had not sufficiently supported the rebel side if it won.

It is worth noting that although there = is as yet no=20 other opposition group, the LNC is national only in its aspirations. = Much of=20 Tripolitania still genuinely supports Qaddafi and would likely be = resentful of=20 whatever took his place and refuse to join an LNC-led government. To = overcome=20 antagonism between the provinces and to guide the country through the = arduous=20 process of state building and reconstruction that would follow = Qaddafi=E2=80=99s=20 departure, institutions would need to be truly national and = representative.=20 Since the settling of scores seems inevitable in Libya after decades of=20 Qaddafi=E2=80=99s deliberate divide-and-rule policies, the international = community would=20 need to help establish a Libyan version of the Truth and Reconciliation=20 Commission that brought political opponents in South Africa to some kind = of=20 understanding. Meanwhile, the international community would also have to = steer=20 the development of democracy and good governance in a country that has = not known=20 anything except tyranny for decades.

It is only such a process of = democratization and=20 reconstruction that would truly lessen the salience of Libya=E2=80=99s = enduring=20 divisions. The reintegration of Libya with its North African neighbors = after=20 decades of self-enforced isolation under Qaddafi would also help. After = years of=20 ostracism, reintegration in the region could bring some measure of pride = and=20 responsibility to Libyans.

For all of this to happen, Libya, in = addition to=20 removing Qaddafi from power, needs what Ashton called in her article a = =E2=80=9CMarshall=20 plan for North Africa=E2=80=9D that would help a post-Qaddafi Libya (and = other countries=20 in the region) start building their states, developing their economies, = and=20 improving democratic governance through a number of educational, = economic, and=20 political initiatives. Libya's survival as a unified country will not = only=20 depend on how its own citizens deal with its long-standing fissures but = also on=20 the careful planning of outside powers.

Unless the United States and the = European Union=20 reach a decision quickly, they may wind up in a self-imposed stalemate = that=20 Qaddafi could exploit. The international community needs a proactive = agenda and=20 a clear plan for the intervention, starting now.

 
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/= 67669/dirk-vandewalle/to-the-shores-of-tripoli?page=3Dshow 
 
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        &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;        =20
        &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;  =20 David Ignatius (Washington Post): Obama's Mideast=20 opportunity

CAIRO -- A young Egyptian journalist = named Merette=20 Ibrahim has come to question visiting Defense Secretary Bob Gates at a=20 roundtable discussion. She's passionately idealistic about Egypt's new=20 democracy, and you might think she would be enthusiastic about President = Obama,=20 who supports the political revolution under way here. But she isn't: She = says=20 she finds Obama and his policies confusing.

Welcome to a growing club. This is a = president who=20 promotes change but is failing to articulate it in a way that would = convince=20 young Arabs. The Egyptian journalists I met here cited these = contradictions:=20 Obama is against military intervention in Libya until he's for it; he = supports=20 Egypt's Hosni Mubarak until he says it's time for him to resign = immediately; he=20 promises a breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations but = delivers=20 nothing.

There's a logic to Obama's positions, = but it's not=20 easy to explain to an Arab world caught up in the throes of a = revolution. It may=20 be, as his aides argue, that Obama is being deliberately low-key because = he=20 wants to keep America out of the narrative. But this quietism isn't = working very=20 well. What Obama is achieving, instead, is a fuzzy narrative. He seems = to be=20 bending to history, rather than shaping it.

The best outsider's comment I've heard = about the=20 scope of change comes from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, of all = people.=20 In response to my question Thursday, he likened the convulsions shaking = the Arab=20 world to the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I or the end of = the=20 French mandate in the Levant after World War II.

Now, think about that analogy for a = moment: What's=20 the comparable fallen empire whose client states are now in retreat? = Why, that=20 would seem to be America. The regimes that have collapsed so far have = been=20 aligned with American hegemony. As the revolution spreads to Syria and = hopefully=20 Iran, this formula may change. But Barak's historical analogy should = worry=20 Obama.

It's not too late for Obama to seize = this=20 remarkable moment and shape it through his leadership. Here are some of = the=20 things I wish he would say and do in coming weeks, so that my Egyptian=20 journalist colleagues will understand America's role better:

-- First, the president should do = everything he can=20 to help the Egyptian revolution succeed. This is the cornerstone of = positive=20 change, and if it disintegrates into political and economic chaos, it = will be a=20 tragic setback. Egypt badly needs two things right now to avoid the = ditch into=20 which revolutions historically fall: a broad program of economic = assistance to=20 avoid the crash that's almost inevitable, otherwise; and security help = (things=20 like police training) to keep post-revolutionary disorder in = check.

Cairo seems fragile. Tourism is off 75 = percent,=20 police are in disarray, and trash is piling up again near Tahrir Square. = An=20 apartment building in the Garden City neighborhood that used to keep its = front=20 door open now locks it each night. In dealing with these problems, = America=20 should work through its allies, who have cleaner hands.

-- Second, Obama shouldn't be shy about = defending=20 America's friends, even when they are conservative monarchies and have = lots of=20 oil. The United Arab Emirates may not be a perfect place, but it's a lot = freer=20 and more progressive than Iran, say, or Russia or China. Saudi Arabia = has its=20 problems, but it isn't an Iran-style menace, either. Encouraging change = doesn't=20 mean throwing a stick of dynamite into the oil barrel and blowing up the = world=20 economy.

-- Third, Obama should encourage the = anti-Gaddafi=20 coalition to shift the Libya war from a high-visibility military = campaign, with=20 screaming fighter-bombers, to a covert paramilitary effort conducted = mostly in=20 the shadows. Think of the intelligence-led campaign to topple the = Taliban in=20 Afghanistan. Arabs want Gaddafi out, but they don't want another Iraq in = the=20 process.

-- Finally, Obama should go to the = Middle East and=20 embrace this moment. I understand his desire to stay out of the = limelight, but=20 it's proving to be a mistake. This is a world-historical event, as = powerful as=20 the fall of the Berlin Wall, and one for which Obama's whole life and = experience=20 have prepared him. He shouldn't play rope-a-dope with history. He should = go to=20 Cairo, and Bahrain and Damascus, too, if he can. He should listen to = what people=20 say -- and speak to them, in his authentic, powerful and necessary = American=20 voice.

Ignatius is a foreign affairs = columnist for=20 The Washington Post. Contact him at davidignatius@washpost.com.

http://www.indystar.com/article/20110327/OPINION12/103270337/10= 02/OPINION
 
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3D"B=C3=A4rbel<= /STRONG>Freudenberg-Pilster     &nb= sp;           &nbs= p; =20 The Key Is Not in=20 Libya
Rechtsanw=C3=A4ltin-
Staatssekret=C3=A4rin = a.D.     =20    =20

 

Contrary to headlines and official pronouncements, the = most=20 important event in the Middle East last week was neither the U.N. = Security=20 Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Libya nor the=20 commencement of the air strikes. Despite being relegated to the = background, the=20 plebiscite in Egypt establishing the basis for genuine democratic order; = the=20 stalled attempt to usher in a constitutional rule in Bahrain; and the = ongoing=20 turmoil in Yemen remain the more critical regional developments. =

It is the events in the heart of the Arab world and not = the=20 disposition of Muammar el-Qaddafi=E2=80=99s distant penal colony that = will determine the=20 future of the Middle East for generations to come. The challenge for = Washington=20 is how to sustain the momentum of the Arab Spring while dealing with the = Libyan=20 imbroglio.

All this is not to ignore or discount an obvious reality: = The=20 international community has made a prolonged commitment to Libya. = President=20 Obama has called on Qaddafi to leave while the Security Council has = declared its=20 mission to be the protection of all Libyan civilians.

The first temptation of any administration seeking to = limit its=20 participation in an unpredictable and protracted conflict is to enlarge = its=20 coalition. As such, Washington and its European allies took great = comfort in the=20 endorsement of the Arab League =E2=80=94 an organization uniquely devoid = of moral=20 authority or military capability.

A league of autocrats and despots is part of the problem = and not=20 the solution to the region=E2=80=99s difficulties. Though the Arab = League provides a=20 political umbrella that Western leaders seem to think they need, it is = important=20 not to scale back the calls for reform. The cause of anti-Libya alliance = should=20 not diminish the more significant challenge of pressing the Arab states = toward=20 adjustment of their national compacts.

The key to sustaining the momentum of the Arab Spring is = still in=20 Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Egypt is the epicenter of the Arab world, and=20 developments in Cairo have historically resonated throughout the region. =

The task is to continuously press the Egyptian military = on its=20 existing path of gradually yielding authority to a civilian government. = The fact=20 that the Egyptian army maybe called upon to police Libya=E2=80=99s = borders and skies=20 should not dissuade the United States from pressuring it to abide by its = declared commitments.

Throughout the post-colonial period, Egypt has = established the=20 political template that has been widely emulated throughout the region. = From=20 pan-Arabism to Islamism, Egypt=E2=80=99s model has always defined Arab = politics. The=20 sight of the military peacefully yielding to a democratically elected = civilian=20 government will have an enduring impact on the region=E2=80=99s = struggling reformers.=20 Should Egypt establish a governing system that is representative and=20 accountable, it can lead the Arab world in a progressive direction. =

No less important is Saudi Arabia. Ironically, at a time = when the=20 Middle East is becoming polarized along sectarian lines, no state has a = greater=20 capacity to heal this breach then Saudi Arabia. Thus far, the House of = Saud=E2=80=99s=20 response to the Arab awakening has been to deny reforms at home while = casting=20 Bahrain=E2=80=99s struggle for representation as a sectarian plot = concocted by Iran=E2=80=99s=20 Shiite theocrats.

For too long, Washington has indulged Saudi mischief = because of its=20 reliance on the kingdom=E2=80=99s oil and its support for a variety of = American=20 objectives such as containment of Iran and the Arab-Israeli peace = process. It is=20 time to reinvent U.S.-Saudi relations.

Riyadh can be instrumental in advancing the cause of = stability in=20 the Gulf should it move away from its zero-sum confrontation with Iran = and=20 intolerant obsession with the Shiites. The reality is that the Shiite = population=20 of the Gulf is neither enchanted by the Islamic Republic nor sees itself = as an=20 agent of Tehran. The struggle in Bahrain, as with the rest of the Middle = East,=20 is about economic justice and political representation.

Should the United States succeed in nudging the Saudi = ruling elite=20 away from its reflexive opposition to change, it can take an important = step=20 toward not just diminishing sectarian cleavages but also modernizing the = Gulf=E2=80=99s=20 politics.

Hovering over all this is the question whether = the United=20 States can disaggregate Libya from its larger Middle East policy. In = practical=20 terms this implies a power-sharing arrangement between the U.S. and its = European=20 allies. Washington is already managing two wars and must focus = its=20 remaining efforts on political reform and economic rehabilitation of the = Arab=20 states.

Given the recent United Nations resolution, the West has = a moral=20 commitment to the nascent Libyan opposition. But given America=E2=80=99s = taxing=20 obligations and its need to concentrate on the larger Middle East, it is = Europe=20 that has to bear the burden of Libya=E2=80=99s emancipation.

Ray Takeyhis a senior = fellow at the=20 Council on Foreign Relations.

 = http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/opinion/30iht-edTakeyh30.html
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           =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;           &nb= sp;           &nbs= p;          =20 Politics: from = Vision to=20 Action
 
           =             &= nbsp; =20   =E2=80=A6 good governance: focus on sharing benefits, not = ownership -=20 setting rules, monitoring, binding methods of settling disputes=20 =E2=80=A6
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Barandat=20            =     =20 Iraqi Kurdistan building 11 dams, = 28 more=20 planned          = ;            =             &= nbsp;          =20        =20
Bundeswehr      =20                          &nbs= p;            = ;     =20

ARBIL, Mar 24, 2011 (AFP) - Authorities = in Iraq's=20 autonomous Kurdistan area are building 11 dams and plan dozens more, the = region's agriculture minister said Thursday, a move that could = raise=20 tensions over water.

"There are 11 dams now under = construction," Jameel=20 Sulaiman told AFP. "We have studies and designs to build 28 more," he = added.=20

He said the dams currently under = construction in=20 three provinces of Kurdistan were "small and medium size," with storage=20 capacities ranging between one million cubic metres (35 million cubic = feet) to=20 10 million cubic metres.

He added that four were being built in = Arbil, five=20 in Sulaimaniyah and two in Dohuk, but did not say when they would be = completed.=20

"We are building these dams in order to = develop the=20 agriculture sector in the region, and for water storage, because Iraq = has=20 suffered droughts for the past several years," Sulaiman said.

Water is a major source of tension in = Iraq,=20 especially between the Kurdistan region and other provinces.

In the multi-ethnic Kirkuk province, = Arab farmers=20 accuse the Kurdistan region of ruining them by closing the valves to a = dam in=20 winter.

A growing water deficit and = dams built by=20 Iraq's neighbours have significantly reduced the water flow in a country = that=20 was until the late 1950s a breadbasket of the Arab world. =

A UN factsheet in October 2010 showed = that while=20 more rain fell in 2009 compared with 2008, the water situation in Iraq = is still=20 critical. Rainfall is now 50 percent below average. 

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm?= id=3DANA20110324T141758ZEAT05&l=3D141802110324&zawyaemailmarketin= g
 
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         &nbs= p;            = ; =20 ISN (Zurich):    Libya: = AFRICOM's=20 Combat Christening
 
The current = intervention underway=20 in Libya is the inaugural combat mission for the US military's AFRICOM. = While=20 the Command's professed primary objective has been to strengthen = security=20 cooperation with African countries, many in sub-Saharan Africa see a = more=20 ominous agenda at work.

After World War II, the US = military carved=20 up the globe outside its borders into a series of Unified Combatant = Commands=20 (UCC) to project military power and safeguard interests abroad. The UCC = "areas=20 of responsibility" include United States Pacific Command (PACOM, founded = 1947 in=20 the wake of the Pacific War), United States European Command (EUCOM, = founded the=20 same year), United States Southern Command (SOCOM, founded in 1963 in = the wake=20 of deteriorating relations with Cuba) and United States Central Command=20 (CENTCOM, 1983), covering most of Eurasia.

In 2008 they were joined by a = fifth UCC when=20 the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) became operational. Except = for Egypt,=20 which remains under CENTCOM administration, AFRICOM is responsible for=20 overseeing US military operations and relations across the whole African = continent and the island nations of Cape Verde, S=C3=A3o Tom=C3=A9 and = Pr=C3=ADncipe, the=20 Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles. Prior to the = establishment of=20 AFRICOM, responsibility for continental Africa was divided between EUCOM = and=20 CENTCOM, while PACOM had responsibility for Madagascar, the Comoros and=20 Mauritius.

AFRICOM was established with the = stated=20 intention = of=20 strengthening "security cooperation with Africa and creating = opportunities to=20 bolster the capabilities of our partners in Africa. Africa Command will = enhance=20 our efforts to bring peace and security to the people of Africa and = promote our=20 common goals of development, health, education, democracy, and economic = growth=20 in Africa."

The Libya conflict marks = AFRICOM's inaugural=20 military combat operation. The Africa Command joins CENTCOM military = operations=20 in Iraq and Afghanistan as the third major US combat operation in the = Muslim=20 world in the last decade.

Promoting security = - or a=20 scramble for resources?

Some analysts have pointed to the creation of a specific Africa Command as testimony = to the=20 growing strategic importance of Africa to US interests. Terrorism has = ranked=20 among Washington's chief security concerns on the continent in recent = decades,=20 driven primarily by the 1998 attacks on the US embassies in Dar es = Salaam,=20 Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya and the post-9/11 global "war on terror". = Following=20 9/11, the US military undertook anti-terrorist operations in the Sahel = (the=20 east-to-west belt between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian = Savanna to=20 the south) and established a military presence in Djibouti. US troops = have also=20 helped train anti-terrorism forces in Algeria, Chad, Kenya, Mali, = Mauritania,=20 Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda among other countries.

AFRICOM detractors have remained = skeptical = about the=20 Command's true intentions, arguing that furthering access to Africa's = vast=20 natural resources, particularly oil, and offsetting China's expansive = investment=20 in the continent over the last decade are among the US' chief strategic=20 interests there. Indeed, Africa contains tremendous mineral wealth, huge = hydro-electrical power reserves and significantly underdeveloped = offshore=20 resources. The majority of the world's diamonds, gold and chromium are = produced=20 in countries at the southern end of the continent. Africa's mineral = riches=20 include copper, bauxite, phosphate, uranium, tin, iron ore, cobalt and = titanium.=20

Of these myriad resources, = however, nothing=20 has captured foreign interests as much as oil. By 2013, African oil = production=20 is projected to rise to=20 10.7-11.4 million barrels per day (bpd), and by 2018 to 12.4-14.5 = million bpd.=20 The US is currently Nigeria's biggest oil importer, and the National=20 Intelligence Council predicts = that imports=20 from the Gulf of Guinea will increase to more than 25 percent of all US = imports=20 by 2015.

The US, however, is in = increasing=20 competition with China for access to Africa's vast natural resource = holdings. In=20 fact, China has overtaken the US to become Africa's largest trading = partner,=20 particularly in oil, accounting for 73 percent of African exports. In = 1995,=20 Chinese imports from Africa were=20 worth $1.4 billion; 11 = years later,=20 their value had soared to = $28.7=20 billion, a 2,000 percent increase.

Regional = perceptions=20

From its founding, African = perceptions about=20 AFRICOM's ultimate intentions were mixed, and opinion was largely = bifurcated -=20 like the continent itself - by the Sahara desert. The Arabic Maghreb, = bordering=20 the southern shore of the Mediterranean, came out largely in support of = AFRICOM;=20 detractors were mostly from black Africa to the south. African = governments,=20 along with many observers in the West, expressed their concerns that = AFRICOM was=20 actually a stealth operation to extend US military control across the = continent=20 with an eye toward dominating its resources and keeping a closer eye on = key=20 competitors like China.

A 2007 US=20 Congressional Research Service report on the creation of AFRICOM laid bare the concerns of = many African=20 governments:

There has been = considerable=20 apprehension over US motivations for creating AFRICOM, and some = Africans worry that the move represents a neocolonial effort to dominate = the=20 region militarily. US military efforts on the continent have been seen = as=20 episodic, leading some to question a more sustained focus from DOD [the = US=20 Department of Defense] now. Reports of US air strikes in Somalia in = recent years=20 and US support for Ethiopia's military intervention there have added to = those=20 concerns. Many view US counter-terrorism efforts in Africa with = skepticism, and=20 there appears to be a widespread belief that the new command's primary = goals=20 will be to hunt terrorists and to secure US access to African oil. US = foreign=20 policy analysts have focused increased attention on China's role in = Africa in=20 recent years, and such attention has led some to question whether an = Africa=20 Command might be part of a new contest for influence on the continent.=20

In the intervening years, not = much seems to=20 have changed: In the "frequently asked questions" section of its = website,=20 AFRICOM is almost too quick to ask and answer inquries about an alleged = agenda=20 to control Africa's resources, replying to queries like, "Is this = [AFRICOM] an=20 effort by the United States to gain access to natural resources (e.g.=20 petroleum)? Is this [AFRICOM] in response to Chinese activities in = Africa?" with=20 a simple "No." But African countries apparently remain unconvinced: = Liberia=20 is the only one of the=20 53 countries covered by AFRICOM's mandate to publicly offer to host the = Command=20 - until now, its headquarters have been in Stuttgart, Germany. =

The ongoing operation in Libya = only seems to=20 be reinforcing the notion that AFRICOM is intent on promoting US = strategic=20 interests - not bringing "peace and security to the people of Africa" as = per its=20 mission statement.

The Nigerian Foreign Minister = Odein=20 Ajumogobia pointed to what he=20 viewed as the capriciousness of the Libyan mission: "The contradictions = between=20 principle and national interest ... have enabled the international = community to=20 impose a no-fly zone over Libya ostensibly to protect innocent civilians = from=20 slaughter, but to watch seemingly helplessly (in Ivory Coast) as ...men, = women=20 and children are slaughtered in equally, even if less egregious, = violence."=20

South African President Jacob = Zuma stated firmly that his=20 country said "no to the killing of civilians, no to the regime-change = doctrine=20 and no to the foreign occupation of Libya or any other sovereign state." = This,=20 even as his country, one of the non-permanent members of the UN Security = Council, voted for the resolution to impose a no-fly zone over Libya.=20

It appears, then, that AFRICOM's = inaugural=20 mission - to help establish a no-fly zone over Libya - has not only = failed to=20 convince sub-Saharan Africa of its stated intentions to help promote = peace and=20 stability across the region, but may actually serve to enhance = resistance to US=20 military presence on the continent.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/IS= N-Insights/Detail?lng=3Den&id=3D127973&contextid734=3D127973&= contextid735=3D127972&tabid=3D127972127973 
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         &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;      =20 sharing news on global affairs / oil / gas / = politics
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         &nbs= p;            = ;            =             &= nbsp;           &n= bsp;          =20  Syria's=20 chaos has big implications for U.S.
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WASHINGTON Even as the Obama administration = tries to explain=20 and defend the NATO-led action in Libya, the latest violent clashes in = Jordan=20 and Syria are raising new alarm among U.S. officials who view those = countries,=20 in the heartland of the Arab world, as far more vital to Western=20 interests.

Deepening chaos in Syria, in particular, could = dash any=20 remaining hopes for a Middle East peace agreement, several analysts = said. It=20 could also alter the U.S. rivalry with Iran for influence in the region = and pose=20 challenges for the United States' greatest ally in the region,=20 Israel.

In interviews, administration officials said = they were=20 trying to gauge the seriousness of the latest Syrian uprising, though = they have=20 confirmed that the protests have been widespread, involving different = ethnic=20 groups in both the southern and coastal regions of Syria. The new U.S.=20 ambassador in Damascus, Robert Ford, has been quietly reaching out to = President=20 Bashar Assad to urge him to stop firing on his people.

As U.S. officials confront the sudden upheaval = in Syria,=20 they say they are pulled between fears that the country's problems could = destabilize neighboring states such as Lebanon and Israel, and the hope = that it=20 could seriously weaken one of Iran's key allies.

For years, the United States has tried to coax = Syria into=20 negotiating a peace deal with Israel and to moving away from Iran - a = largely=20 fruitless effort that has left the Obama administration open to = criticism on=20 Capitol Hill that it is cozying up to one of the most repressive = governments in=20 the Arab world.

The unrest there - and in Jordan, which has a = peace treaty=20 with Israel - could leave Israel further isolated. The Israeli = government was=20 already rattled by the overthrow of Egypt's leader, Hosni Mubarak, = worrying that=20 a new government might not be as committed to peace with = Israel.

While Israel has largely managed to avoid being = drawn into=20 the regional turmoil, last week's bombing of a bus in Jerusalem, which = killed=20 one person and wounded 30, and increased rocket attacks from Gaza, have = fanned=20 fears that the militant group Hamas might seize the moment to try to = destabilize=20 Israel.

With security forces killing dozens of = protesters, Syria is=20 now living up to its notorious reputation, begun by Assad's father and=20 predecessor, Hafez Assad. And the White House, which sent an ambassador = back for=20 the first time since 2005, is being forced to change its=20 calculations.

"Whatever credibility the government had, they = shot it today=20 - literally," said a senior administration official, speaking on the = condition=20 that he not be named.

In the process, this official said, Assad has = disqualified=20 himself as a peace partner for Israel. Such a prospect had seemed a long = shot in=20 any event - Israel's right-wing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has = shown no=20 inclination to talk to Assad - but the administration kept working at = it. Its=20 special envoy to the Middle East, George J. Mitchell, has been a regular = visitor=20 to Damascus.

"You can't have comprehensive peace in the = Middle East=20 without Syria," the official said. "It's definitely in our interest to = pursue an=20 agreement, but you can't do with a government that has no credibility = with its=20 population."

The crackdown calls into question the entire = U.S. engagement=20 with Syria, which has gone beyond the peace process.

Last June, the State Department organized a = delegation of=20 technology executives from Microsoft, Dell and Cisco Systems to visit = Assad with=20 the message that he could attract more foreign investment if he stopped=20 censoring social networks like Facebook and Twitter.

While the administration renewed economic = sanctions on=20 Syria, it eased restrictions on export licenses for aircraft.

A key congressional ally of the administration, = Sen. John=20 Kerry of Massachusetts, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations = Committee,=20 has also visited Damascus frequently and advocated engagement with = Syria. Kerry=20 was out of the country and unavailable for comment, his spokesman=20 said.

The Bush administration, by contrast, largely = shunned Syria,=20 recalling its ambassador in 2005 after the assassination of a former = Lebanese=20 prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Many Lebanese accuse Syria of involvement = in the=20 assassination, a charge it denies. An international tribunal is close to = handing=20 out indictments in the case.

When President Barack Obama named Ford as his = envoy to Syria=20 last year, Republicans in the Senate held up the nomination for months, = arguing=20 that the United States should not reward Syria with closer ties. = Administration=20 officials responded that they could influence Syria's behavior by having = a=20 senior diplomat in the Syrian capital.

But they also concede that Assad has been an = endless source=20 of frustration - deepening ties with Iran and the Islamic militant group = Hezbollah, to which Syria is suspected of shipping Scud missiles; = undermining=20 the government of Saad Hariri in Lebanon; pursuing a nuclear program = that would=20 have destabilized the whole region; and failing to deliver on promises = of=20 political reform.

Last week, they pointed with ridicule to an = interview that=20 Assad gave to The Wall Street Journal in January, after the uprisings in = Tunisia=20 and Egypt, in which he portrayed himself as a reformer and claimed that = Syria=20 had been spared protests because his government was "very closely linked = to the=20 beliefs of the people."

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Massenbach's= = Recommendation  =20
 
Conflict Risk = Alert:=20 Syria

=E2=80=9CAfter decades of colonialism followed by = authoritarian rule,=20 the Middle East and North Africa are facing a new phenomenon: a demand = for=20 governments based on popular legitimacy.=E2=80=9D =

Syria is at what is = rapidly becoming a=20 defining moment for its leadership. There are only two options. One = involves an=20 immediate and inevitably risky political initiative that might convince = the=20 Syrian people that the regime is willing to undertake dramatic change. = The other=20 entails escalating repression, which has every chance of leading to a = bloody and=20 ignominious end. Already, the unfolding confrontation in the southern = city of=20 Deraa gives no sign of quieting, despite some regime concessions, = forceful=20 security measures and mounting casualties. For now, this remains a=20 geographically isolated tragedy. But it also constitutes an ominous = precedent=20 with widespread popular resonance that could soon be repeated elsewhere. =

The regime faces = three=20 inter-related challenges. First is a diffuse but deep sense of = fatigue=20 within society at large, combined with a new unwillingness to tolerate = what=20 Syrians had long grown accustomed to -- namely the arrogance of power in = its=20 many forms, including brutal suppression of any dissent, the official = media=E2=80=99s=20 crude propaganda and vague promises of future reform. As a result of = events=20 elsewhere in the region, a new awareness and audacity have materialised = over the=20 past several weeks in myriad forms of rebelliousness, large and small,=20 throughout the country.

Secondly, = at the heart=20 of virtually any locality in the nation is a long list of specific = grievances.=20 These typically involve a combination: rising cost of living, failing = state=20 services, unemployment, corruption and a legacy of abuse by security = services.=20 In a number of places, religious fundamentalism, sectarianism or Kurdish = nationalism also form an integral part of the mix. In others, the = depletion of=20 water resources and devastation of the agriculture sector add to the = tensions.=20

The third = challenge=20 relates to the regime=E2=80=99s many genuine enemies, all of whom = undoubtedly will seek=20 to seize this rare opportunity to precipitate its demise. Authorities = have=20 ascribed much of the strife to the exiled opposition, home-grown jihadi=20 elements, local =E2=80=9Caliens=E2=80=9D (notably residents of = Palestinian and Kurdish descent)=20 and hostile foreign parties (notably U.S., Israeli, Lebanese and Saudi). =

As a result, the regime = claims to be=20 fighting critical threats to national unity, such as foreign = interference,=20 ethnic secessionism and sectarian retribution. It also stresses the = illegitimacy=20 of exiled Syrians they accuse of stirring unrest -- some of whom, in = fairness,=20 are suspected of crimes no less deserving of investigation than those of = the=20 officials they seek to replace.

All this = unquestionably forms=20 part of the picture. But these factors are intertwined with others, far = more=20 difficult to define or to manage -- a popular desire for long overdue,=20 far-reaching change; the simultaneous expression of numerous legitimate = demands;=20 and a growing belief that the regime is incapable of shifting from a = logic of=20 entitlement and survival to one of accountability. The current blend of = mounting=20 repression, blatant disinformation, minor concessions and presidential = silence=20 is quickly hardening negative perceptions.

A window of opportunity = still exists to=20 change these dynamics, although it is fast closing. Unlike most of his = peers in=20 the region, President Bashar Assad has accumulated significant political = capital, and many Syrians are willing, for now, to give him the benefit = of the=20 doubt. In fact, a broad range of citizens =E2=80=93 including members of = the security=20 apparatus =E2=80=93 are desperately waiting for him to take the lead and = to propose,=20 before it is too late, an alternative to spiraling confrontation. = Although he=20 has held numerous consultations and sent some signals of impending = reform=20 through the foreign media and other officials, he has yet to assume = clear and=20 palpable leadership.

Instead, faced with an = unprecedented,=20 multi-faceted, fast-paced and critical challenge, the power apparatus at = best is=20 implementing chaotic steps that convey a sense of confusion, at worst is = reacting according to well-ingrained habits. Left to its own devices, it = will=20 send precisely the wrong messages to a population that will not wait = much longer=20 for the regime to get its act together and to put forward a = comprehensive and=20 credible vision. At this point, only one thing can change swiftly, = dramatically=20 and effectively for the better, and that is the president=E2=80=99s own = attitude.=20

President Assad must show = visible=20 leadership and do so now. His political capital today depends less on = his past=20 foreign policy successes than on his ability to live up to popular = expectations=20 at a time of dangerous domestic crisis. Meanwhile, repression = perpetrated under=20 his responsibility is costing him dearly. He alone can prove that change = is=20 possible and already in the making, restore some sense of clarity and = direction=20 to a bewildered power apparatus and put forward a detailed framework for = structural change. This should include several steps:

  • The President should speak openly = and directly=20 to his people, recognise the challenges described above, stress the=20 unacceptable and counterproductive nature of repression, offer = condolences to=20 the families of victims, order a serious, transparent investigation = into the=20 violence in Deraa, present a package of measures for immediate = implementation=20 and suggest an inclusive mechanism for discussing more far-reaching = reforms.=20
  • He should announce the following, = immediate=20 measures: release of all political prisoners; lifting of the emergency = law;=20 authorisation of peaceful demonstrations; opening of new channels for = the=20 expression of complaints, given lack of trust in local officials; and = action=20 on the many cases of corruption that already have been compiled by the = security apparatus but lie dormant due to nepotistic intervention. =
  • Upcoming parliamentary elections = should be=20 postponed pending a referendum on sweeping constitutional amendments = which=20 should be discussed with a wide and inclusive range of Syrians. Deeper = change=20 requires broad consultation and cannot be arbitrarily=20 implemented.

Many within the regime = argue against=20 such a radical course of action. Their points might appear logical, but = none=20 should carry the day:

The regime has = never responded=20 to pressure, and this time-honoured principle has always served it well = over the=20 years, particularly in times of crisis.

While this might have been = true in the=20 past, the current situation involves an entirely different and = unprecedented=20 kind of pressure, one that is relentless and grounded in deep-seated = popular=20 feelings. If resisted, it will only swell. This is not a time for = business as=20 usual or for standing still when all around is moving.

Any concessions = are likely to=20 be viewed as inadequate and only fuel additional demands.=20

This almost certainly will = be the case.=20 And it is why any initiative must go all the way, from the outset. Only = by doing=20 so might the president convince the people that change is real. The = question, in=20 other words, is whether the regime can accept fundamental change. If it = cannot,=20 it is headed toward a bloody confrontation.

People do not = know what they=20 really want and express endless demands, some of which are = unacceptable.=20

Again, this likely is true = and, after=20 years of suppression, wide-ranging aspirations cannot but be expressed. = But the=20 lack of a clear popular vision for orderly change offers the president = the=20 chance to convince citizens of the merits of his own.

The = regime=E2=80=99s enemies are=20 stirring things up and must be subdued before they do more damage.=20

In reality, none of the = regime=E2=80=99s enemies=20 possess enough support or influence in Syria to mount a critical threat. = At=20 best, they can try to make use of broad popular anger and steer it to = their=20 advantage. But by focusing on =E2=80=9Cenemies=E2=80=9D, the regime is = giving them more space=20 while deepening popular discontent.

There is, in short, reason = to question=20 whether a dramatic approach will prevail. But it is the only realistic = way to=20 avoid a perilous confrontation.

After decades of = colonialism followed by=20 authoritarian rule, the Middle East and North Africa are facing a new=20 phenomenon: a demand for governments based on popular legitimacy. Rulers = in=20 Syria or elsewhere can pass this test of leadership, or they can fail = it. Bashar=20 Assad has important assets; he retains significant political capital = measured by=20 regional standards, and it is high time that he spends it. As each day = goes by,=20 repression will both dissipate that capital and increase popular = demands, making=20 constructive action all the more difficult. Hunkering down and waiting = for the=20 storm to pass may have served the regime well in days past. But now, it = must=20 fight against those instincts if it wants to preserve the possibility of = a=20 peaceful outcome.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publicati= on-type/media-releases/2011/conflict-risk-alert-syria.aspx 
 
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         &nb= sp;          =20 Arab News:=20 Saudis in private firms demand trade = union
 
27 March 2011

JEDDAH: Saudi workers in the private = sector=20 are demanding the establishment of a workers union or a similar body to = protect=20 their rights.

While collective = bargaining is=20 illegal in Saudi Arabia, some Saudis are saying they should be able to = form a=20 body based on the model of the Saudi Journalists Association or the = Saudi=20 Retirees Association and that it should be governed by an elected body. = Business=20 owners would be banned from being members of such an organization under = this=20 proposal.

Nasser Al-Jadaani, a = car company=20 worker, said workers need their own advocacy group to fight for their = rights to=20 have a minimum wage, incremental salary increases and merit-based = promotions and=20 annual bonuses.

"Currently we are at = the mercy of=20 company managers who would grant us a salary hike or bonus only if we = grovel,"=20 he said. "Under this humiliating situation, dedicated Saudi workers are=20 sidelined and they remain forever at the salary on which they started = work. They=20 will never get any promotion while those who flatter the bosses are = given pay=20 raises and bonuses. I don't mean that all companies are like that. I = know that=20 there are a few exceptions that have a salary scale applicable to all = workers=20 and fixed conditions for promotion," Al-Jadaani added.

Recently, the Saudi = government=20 announced a minimum wage and two-month salary bonus for government = workers. But=20 in the private sector, wages and bonuses are completely at the = discretion of=20 employers. Furthermore, the huge presence of foreign workers who are = bound to=20 their employers under the sponsorship system acts as a wage suppressor = that=20 compels job-seeking Saudis in the private sector to compete with the = lower wages=20 foreign workers are paid.

Fahd Al-Sultan, a = 33-year-old real=20 estate company worker, justified the need for a trade union of Saudi = employees=20 in the private sector, saying most companies and establishments in the = Kingdom=20 adopt a negative approach toward Saudi workers.

"How can a Saudi = employee -- who=20 knows for sure that his employer will not ever give him a raise and = whose wages=20 hardly suffice to feed his family -- dedicate himself in his work?" = Al-Sultan=20 asked. "The solution to this problem is providing workers the motivation = to work=20 hard. That is why they should have an incremental salary pattern, with = defined=20 working hours and with provision for paid overtime work."

Mamdouh Al-Maraashi, a = private=20 school teacher in his twenties, urged that effective and quick steps = should be=20 taken to end the suffering of Saudi employees in the private sector. = "The=20 establishment of a labor union would enable the workers to find = solutions to the=20 problems that they endure," he said. "New laws and regulations to = protect the=20 rights of private Saudi workers should be in place."

Al-Maraashi pointed = out that such=20 an organization could also act as a third-party watchdog against = companies that=20 skirt Saudization rules, the law that assigns job quota for Saudis. = Faisal=20 Al-Surae, an employee of a petrochemical company, agreed, stressing the = need for=20 a Saudi workers union that has the authority to go after companies that=20 illegally go around hiring Saudis to fill their Saudization quotas. He = also=20 stressed that workers in the private sector should have the same rights = as those=20 working for the government, which is the largest employer of = Saudis.

Bank employee Nasser = Al-Abdali=20 said an organization dedicated to collective barraging, unlike the = individual=20 worker, can hire lawyers in the event of arbitrary dismissal of a worker = by a=20 company.

"A dismissed employee = hardly gets=20 or can get justice, and if so only after years," he said. "This is = because a=20 worker cannot afford to hire good lawyers to represent him. On the other = hand, a=20 company is protected by its legal advisers who can make life hell for a = worker=20 who complains against the company."

Ministry of Labor = spokesman Hattab=20 Al-Anazi said the ministry is aware of the needs of all employees. The = ministry=20 last year set up a committee under Nidal Radwan, an employee of Saudi = Telecom=20 Co., to pave the way for the establishment of a national council for = workers.=20 The committee held several meetings to lay down the basic statutes, = including=20 the election regulations for the board of directors of that national=20 council.

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm?id=3DZAWYA20110327030352&l=3D= 030300110327&zawyaemailmarketing =20
 
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see our letter on: =20 http://www.massenbach-world.de/41259.html
 
Wir w=C3=BCnschen Ihnen ein = angenehmes=20 Wochenende. Ihr Team.
 
********************************************************= *********************************************************
Udo=20 von Massenbach   -   B=C3=A4rbel = Freudenberg-Pilster  =20 -   J=C3=B6rg=20 Barandat
        &nbs= p;            = ;            =           =20
UdovonMassenbach@t-online.de  =20 Mail@Freudenberg-Pilster.de  
          &nbs= p;           =20 JoergBarandat@yahoo.de
 
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